The model favours an away win, with a 56 % chance for San Giovanni, 25 % for a draw and 19 % for Murata to lift the trophy. The average goal tally is 2.7, but the most likely total is two goals, a 25 % probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.1 % chance. Murata, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages 0.62 goals scored and concedes 3.0, while San Giovanni, on the road, scores 0.71 and concedes only 0.86 against comparable opposition. Recent form shows Murata on a five-match losing streak, last losing 2-5 to Juvenes / Dogana, whereas San Giovanni has two straight defeats but has won 0-4 against Tre Penne. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 with 99.3 %, Over 19.5 fouls at 99.1 %, Home under 3.5 goals98.4 %, Under 6.597.8 %, Over 21.5 fouls97.4 %, Under 5.594.0 %, Over 23.5 fouls93.9 % and Away +2 handicap93.3 %.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Murata win
18.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni win
56.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Murata
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
3.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
2.83
0.36
2.93
1.00
2.75
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
2.85
0.00
2.83
0.86
2.86
vs Similar (17)
0.88
2.82
0.62
3.00
1.11
2.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
3% (-25pp vs league)
This opponent (San Giovanni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
San Giovanni
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.43
1.00
1.53
0.80
1.33
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
2.25
0.43
2.43
0.40
2.00
vs Similar (14)
1.07
0.93
1.50
0.83
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.75
1.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Murata) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.8%
Under 1.5
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.4%
Under 2.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.3%
Under 3.5
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.0%
No
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
0-1
10.5%
0-2
10.4%
1-2
9.8%
0-0
7.6%
0-3
6.2%
1-3
5.8%
2-1
5.2%
Murata goals ↓
San Giovanni goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
11%
10%
6.2%
2.8%
1
5.1%
12%
9.8%
5.8%
2.6%
2
2.9%
5.2%
4.6%
2.8%
1.2%
3
0.9%
1.6%
1.5%
0.9%
0.4%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Murata goals (down), columns = San Giovanni goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.43
Virtus
2.34
Tre Penne
2.17
La Fiorita
1.97
Folgore
1.88
Domagnano
1.57
Fiorentino
1.53
Cosmos
1.42
Juvenes / Dogana
1.18
Libertas
1.16
San Giovanni
1.03
Pennarossa
1.03
Faetano
0.73
San Marino Academy
0.53
Cailungo
0.37
Murata
0.23
Murata is 0.80 points worse than San Giovanni in terms of average points per game (0.23 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Virtus
2.37
Folgore
2.16
Tre Penne
2.14
Tre Fiori
2.10
La Fiorita
2.00
Domagnano
1.89
Fiorentino
1.25
Juvenes / Dogana
1.12
Libertas
1.06
Cosmos
1.00
Pennarossa
0.94
San Giovanni
0.80
San Marino Academy
0.77
Cailungo
0.77
Faetano
0.73
Murata
0.67
Murata is 0.13 goals worse than San Giovanni in terms of goals scored per game (0.67 vs 0.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tre Fiori
0.43
Tre Penne
0.60
Virtus
0.69
Cosmos
0.70
La Fiorita
0.89
Folgore
1.12
Juvenes / Dogana
1.24
Domagnano
1.26
Fiorentino
1.41
San Giovanni
1.43
Pennarossa
1.81
Faetano
1.83
San Marino Academy
2.00
Libertas
2.06
Cailungo
2.37
Murata
2.77
Murata is 1.33 goals worse than San Giovanni in terms of goals conceded per game (2.77 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Tre Fiori
64%
Tre Penne
60%
San Giovanni
53%
San Marino Academy
51%
Libertas
49%
Juvenes / Dogana
47%
Fiorentino
40%
Cosmos
36%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Murata
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
San Giovanni
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Murata
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (21)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (San Giovanni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
San Giovanni
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
4.0
4.0
-
0.1
0.2
0.0
32.0
32.0
-
vs Stronger (21)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
4.0
4.0
-
0.2
0.4
0.0
32.0
32.0
-
vs Weaker (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
-
2%
4%
0%
100%
100%
-
% under line
100%
100%
-
98%
96%
100%
0%
0%
-
This opponent (Murata) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Libertas
12.0
San Marino Academy
12.0
Fiorentino
10.0
Cosmos
8.7
Tre Penne
7.8
La Fiorita
7.8
Tre Fiori
7.7
Folgore
5.0
Cailungo
5.0
San Giovanni
4.0
Juvenes / Dogana
4.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
5.3
San Giovanni
5.0
Juvenes / Dogana
5.0
Cosmos
4.7
La Fiorita
4.5
Fiorentino
4.0
Tre Penne
3.6
Libertas
3.0
San Marino Academy
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Fiorentino
34.0
San Giovanni
32.0
Juvenes / Dogana
32.0
Cosmos
30.0
Tre Penne
28.5
Tre Fiori
28.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
21.2%
Under 9.5
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
61.4%
Under 3.5
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
97.4%
Under 21.5
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Murata or Draw
43.9%
Avg Implied -
19%
25%
56%
covers Murata + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Murata or San Giovanni
74.7%
Avg Implied -
19%
25%
56%
covers Murata + San Giovanni
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or San Giovanni
81.4%
Avg Implied -
19%
25%
56%
covers Draw + San Giovanni
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Murata over/under 0.5
Over
61.1%
Under
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 1.5
Over
24.4%
Under
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 2.5
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 3.5
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 0.5
Over
83.2%
Under
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 1.5
Over
53.3%
Under
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 2.5
Over
26.6%
Under
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 3.5
Over
10.6%
Under
89.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Murata, so a minus line means Murata give that many goals of a start and San Giovanni receive them. At -1, Murata must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Murata win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Murata)
Murata -2
1.7%
Draw -2
4.9%
San Giovanni +2
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Murata)
Murata -1
6.7%
Draw -1
11.9%
San Giovanni +1
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Murata)
Murata +1
43.9%
Draw +1
23.5%
San Giovanni -1
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Murata)
Murata +2
67.5%
Draw +2
17.6%
San Giovanni -2
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Murata
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
1.40
0.21
1.64
0.31
1.19
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
1.38
0.00
1.33
0.43
1.43
vs Similar (17)
0.29
1.41
0.38
1.88
0.22
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (San Giovanni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
San Giovanni
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.70
0.53
0.73
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
1.00
0.14
1.00
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.50
0.83
0.50
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Murata) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.2%
Under 0.5
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.9%
Under 1.5
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.6%
Under 2.5
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Murata over/under 0.5 HT
Over
30.0%
Under
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 0.5 HT
Over
56.2%
Under
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 1.5 HT
Over
26.9%
Under
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Murata
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.43
0.14
1.29
0.69
1.56
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
1.46
0.00
1.50
0.43
1.43
vs Similar (17)
0.59
1.41
0.25
1.12
0.89
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (San Giovanni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
San Giovanni
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.73
0.47
0.80
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (12)
0.17
1.25
0.29
1.43
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.43
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Murata) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.6%
Under 0.5
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.5%
Under 1.5
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.9%
Under 2.5
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Murata over/under 0.5 2H
Over
42.0%
Under
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.1%
Under
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 0.5 2H
Over
68.2%
Under
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 1.5 2H
Over
27.3%
Under
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 25.5 fouls
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 9.5 corners
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
73.4%
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Away under 1.5 HT goals
73.1%
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-
-
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Away under 1.5 2H goals
72.7%
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Over 0.5 HT goals
72.2%
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-
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Under 3.5
70.7%
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No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
SMA (13)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Murata and San Giovanni have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
SMA (5)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Murata and San Giovanni have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Murata and San Giovanni have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Murata and San Giovanni have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Folgore
Juvenes / Dogana
Tre Fiori
Fiorentino
Tre Penne
Domagnano
Libertas
Cosmos
Virtus
La Fiorita
Cailungo
San Marino Academy
Pennarossa
Faetano