Murata’s recent five-game slump, ending in five straight defeats, leaves them vulnerable at home, especially against a team that has been scoring heavily away. Virtus, on the other hand, has won three of its last four matches and has been prolific on the road, averaging 2.8 goals per game while conceding only 0.7. The model therefore names an Away win as the clear favourite, reflecting Virtus’s attacking strength and Murata’s defensive frailty at home. The predicted outcome is an away victory, with a 70% chance of a win, a 20% chance of a draw, and a 10% chance of a home win. The expected total is 2.8 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 0-2, with a 13.9% probability. Murata is expected to score 0.0 goals and concede 2.71, while Virtus should score 2.8 and concede 0.7. The model’s selections include Home under 3.5 goals (99.5%), Under 7.5 (99.2%), Under 6.5 (97.7%), Away +2 handicap (97.4%), Home under 2.5 goals (97.0%), Under 5.5 (93.8%), Draw or Away (90.4%), and Away +1 handicap (90.4%).
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Murata win
10.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Virtus win
68.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Murata
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
3.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
2.83
0.36
2.93
1.00
2.75
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
2.85
0.00
2.83
0.86
2.86
vs Similar (17)
0.88
2.82
0.62
3.00
1.11
2.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
3% (-36pp vs league)
This opponent (Virtus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Virtus
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
0.73
2.40
0.53
2.07
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.78
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.60
1.40
vs Weaker (21)
2.86
0.62
2.91
0.55
2.80
0.70
Clean sheet %
43% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Murata) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.7%
Under 1.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.2%
Under 2.5
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.2%
Under 3.5
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
42.7%
No
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
14.0%
0-1
12.9%
1-1
10.0%
0-3
9.5%
1-2
9.2%
0-0
7.7%
1-3
6.2%
0-4
4.8%
Murata goals ↓
Virtus goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
13%
14%
9.5%
4.8%
1
3.6%
10%
9.2%
6.2%
3.2%
2
1.5%
3.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
3
0.3%
0.7%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
4
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Murata goals (down), columns = Virtus goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.00
Murata
1.75
Virtus
1.75
San Giovanni
1.50
Juvenes / Dogana
1.50
Tre Penne
1.25
Cailungo
1.00
Cosmos
0.75
Faetano
0.50
Fiorentino
0.50
Folgore
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Domagnano
0.50
Libertas
0.50
Murata and Virtus are level in average points per game (both 1.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tre Fiori
1.86
Tre Penne
1.50
Virtus
1.50
Juvenes / Dogana
1.33
Murata
1.25
San Giovanni
1.00
Cailungo
1.00
Fiorentino
1.00
Domagnano
1.00
Cosmos
0.75
Libertas
0.75
Faetano
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Folgore
0.00
Murata is 0.25 goals worse than Virtus in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Folgore
0.50
Virtus
0.50
Tre Fiori
0.71
Juvenes / Dogana
0.83
Tre Penne
1.00
San Giovanni
1.00
Cailungo
1.00
Murata
1.25
Faetano
1.50
Pennarossa
2.00
Libertas
2.00
Cosmos
2.25
Fiorentino
2.50
Domagnano
2.50
Murata is 0.75 goals worse than Virtus in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 0.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Murata or Draw
31.3%
Avg Implied -
10%
21%
69%
covers Murata + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Murata or Virtus
78.8%
Avg Implied -
10%
21%
69%
covers Murata + Virtus
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Virtus
89.9%
Avg Implied -
10%
21%
69%
covers Draw + Virtus
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Murata over/under 0.5
Over
48.1%
Under
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 1.5
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 2.5
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 3.5
Over
0.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 0.5
Over
86.8%
Under
13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 1.5
Over
60.1%
Under
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 2.5
Over
33.1%
Under
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 3.5
Over
14.8%
Under
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Murata, so a minus line means Murata give that many goals of a start and Virtus receive them. At -1, Murata must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Murata win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Murata)
Murata -2
0.5%
Draw -2
2.2%
Virtus +2
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Murata)
Murata -1
2.8%
Draw -1
7.3%
Virtus +1
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Murata)
Murata +1
31.3%
Draw +1
24.4%
Virtus -1
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Murata)
Murata +2
55.7%
Draw +2
21.4%
Virtus -2
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Murata
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
1.40
0.21
1.64
0.31
1.19
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
1.38
0.00
1.33
0.43
1.43
vs Similar (17)
0.29
1.41
0.38
1.88
0.22
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Virtus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Virtus
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.43
1.20
0.13
0.80
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.89
0.50
0.25
0.40
1.40
vs Weaker (21)
1.24
0.24
1.45
0.09
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
70% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Murata) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Murata over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Murata
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.43
0.14
1.29
0.69
1.56
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
1.46
0.00
1.50
0.43
1.43
vs Similar (17)
0.59
1.41
0.25
1.12
0.89
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-29pp vs league)
This opponent (Virtus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Virtus
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.30
1.20
0.40
1.27
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.33
0.11
0.50
0.25
0.20
0.00
vs Weaker (21)
1.62
0.38
1.45
0.45
1.80
0.30
Clean sheet %
73% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Murata) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Murata over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Murata and Virtus have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Murata and Virtus have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Murata and Virtus have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Murata and Virtus have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Folgore
Juvenes / Dogana
Tre Fiori
Fiorentino
Tre Penne
Domagnano
Libertas
Cosmos
La Fiorita
San Giovanni
Cailungo
San Marino Academy
Pennarossa
Faetano