This match between MVV and FC Volendam in the Netherlands Eerste Divisie is finely balanced, with recent form playing a significant role in shaping the narrative. MVV has been on a 2-game winning run after defeating FC Eindhoven 3-2, while FC Volendam comes off a convincing 3-0 win over FC OSS. The model's pick is an Away win, with a 38% chance of success, followed closely by a Home win at 33% and a Draw at 29%.
The expected total number of goals is 2.6, with 2 being the most likely total. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 13.8%. When MVV plays at home, they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.7 conceded against similar opponents. FC Volendam averages 1.12 goals scored and 1.5 conceded when playing away against similar opponents.
The model's suggested picks include an Over 1.5 selection with a 74.6% chance of success, an Under 3.5 selection with a 73.5% chance, a Home or Away selection with a 73.4% chance, and a Draw or Away selection with a 71.7% chance. Home wins make up 33% of the possible outcomes, draws 29%, and away wins 38%.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, FC Volendam, was tipped to win with a 40 % chance, but the match ended 1-0 in favour of MVV, leaving the model’s call wrong. The final score of 1-0 produced a home win, extending MVV’s three-game winning run. The model’s selection of “Under 7.5” goals hit, as did every other suggested pick except “Under 5.5 cards,” which missed. Each hit was noted with its probability: Under 7.5 at 99 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.8 %, Under 6.5 at 97.2 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.1 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 93.8 %, Under 5.5 at 92.7 %, and Away under 3.5 goals at 91.7 %. The only miss was Under 5.5 cards at 91.4 %.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
MVV win✓ Hit
31.4%
Avg Implied 26.1% · @ 3.55
Edge
+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
3.80
Dafabet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.58
1xBet
3.58
Draw✗ Miss
28.6%
Avg Implied 24.8% · @ 3.73
Edge
+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.91
Betano
3.90
Dafabet
3.90
10Bet
3.90
Betfair
3.90
FC Volendam win✗ Miss
40.1%
Avg Implied 49.1% · @ 1.88
Edge
-9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.94
William Hil
1.91
BetVictor
1.91
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
MVV
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
2.07
1.47
1.93
1.00
2.20
vs Stronger (5)
1.40
2.40
2.00
2.67
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.20
2.00
1.33
1.75
1.08
2.23
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Volendam) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Volendam
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.47
1.27
1.27
0.80
1.67
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.50
1.17
1.00
0.17
2.00
vs Similar (17)
1.18
1.53
1.12
1.62
1.22
1.44
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (MVV) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.0%
@ 1.16-5.4%
Under 1.5
25.0%
@ 4.76+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
888Sport
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Under
Pinnacle
5.02
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Betfair
5.00
888Sport
4.80
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.9%
@ 1.54-11.4%
Under 2.5
51.1%
@ 2.34+11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Unibet
1.55
Under
Betfair
2.45
Pinnacle
2.44
10Bet
2.40
Betano
2.37
Superbet
2.35
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.0%
@ 2.36-12.6%
Under 3.5
73.0%
@ 1.55+12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.40
1xBet
2.40
Pinnacle
2.39
Betfair
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Under
Pinnacle
1.58
10Bet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Superbet
1.55
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.5%
@ 1.50-7.3%
No
45.5%
@ 2.43+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.52
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.50
888Sport
1.50
William Hil
1.50
No
Betfair
2.55
Bet365
2.50
888Sport
2.45
BetVictor
2.45
William Hil
2.45
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%@ 7.21+7.4%
0-1
8.9%@ 9.33+4.1%
1-2
8.7%@ 7.95+3.1%
0-0
8.5%@ 14.09+5.3%
1-0 ✓
7.6%@ 13.23+4.2%
2-1
7.6%@ 11.37+3.6%
0-2
7.2%@ 10.24+2.7%
2-0
5.4%@ 20.28+3.2%
MVV goals ↓
FC Volendam goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
8.9%
7.2%
3.4%
1.2%
1
7.6%
14%
8.7%
4.1%
1.4%
2
5.4%
7.6%
5.3%
2.5%
0.9%
3
2.2%
3.1%
2.2%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.7%
0.9%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = MVV goals (down), columns = FC Volendam goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
MVV is 0.50 points worse than FC Volendam in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
MVV is 0.42 goals worse than FC Volendam in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
MVV is 0.42 goals worse than FC Volendam in terms of goals conceded per game (1.92 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
MVV
For 3.5 · Against 6.6 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 10.8 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Volendam
For 4.9 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.3 · Against 12.6 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
MVV
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
9.9
10.8
3.0
2.8
3.1
22.6
22.1
23.1
vs Stronger (8)
9.8
8.0
11.5
2.4
2.2
2.5
20.5
21.8
19.2
vs Similar (42)
10.4
10.2
10.6
3.1
2.9
3.2
23.0
22.1
23.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
64%
52%
76%
34%
32%
36%
60%
64%
56%
% under line
36%
48%
24%
66%
68%
64%
40%
36%
44%
This opponent (FC Volendam) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Volendam
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
9.8
11.0
3.0
4.0
2.0
22.1
23.2
21.0
vs Stronger (16)
9.7
9.5
9.9
2.7
3.9
1.5
19.7
21.9
17.5
vs Similar (33)
10.6
9.4
11.6
3.1
4.2
2.2
23.2
23.9
22.6
vs Weaker (1)
17.0
17.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
24.0
24.0
-
% over line
60%
48%
72%
34%
58%
12%
56%
70%
44%
% under line
40%
52%
28%
66%
42%
88%
44%
30%
56%
This opponent (MVV) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.1
FC OSS
11.9
Dordrecht
11.7
De Graafschap
11.7
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Jong PSV U21
10.7
Heracles
10.7
Helmond Sport
10.7
Jong AZ
10.6
FC Volendam
10.5
Emmen
10.5
Jong Ajax
10.5
FC Eindhoven
10.4
MVV
10.3
Waalwijk
10.2
Roda
9.9
NAC Breda
9.9
Vitesse
9.8
Jong Utrecht
9.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.4
Dordrecht
4.2
FC OSS
4.2
Jong Ajax
3.9
Emmen
3.8
NAC Breda
3.8
Den Bosch
3.7
Heracles
3.5
VVV Venlo
3.5
Jong AZ
3.4
Helmond Sport
3.4
Roda
3.3
FC Volendam
3.3
Waalwijk
3.2
Jong PSV U21
3.2
De Graafschap
3.2
MVV
3.1
FC Eindhoven
3.1
Jong Utrecht
3.0
Almere City FC
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.2
Vitesse
27.0
Emmen
26.0
Helmond Sport
25.9
Jong Utrecht
25.7
Dordrecht
25.5
Roda
25.1
Jong Ajax
25.0
Heracles
24.3
Jong PSV U21
24.0
VVV Venlo
23.7
Jong AZ
23.6
Den Bosch
23.4
NAC Breda
22.9
FC Eindhoven
22.7
MVV
22.6
De Graafschap
22.6
Waalwijk
22.4
FC Volendam
22.1
Almere City FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
57.8%
@ 1.61+0.5%
Under 9.5
42.2%
@ 2.16-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.65
Unibet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Under
Betano
2.25
Pinnacle
2.20
Marathonbet
2.20
1xBet
2.15
Superbet
2.10
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.9%
Under 3.5
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
62.5%
Under 21.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
MVV or Draw✓ Hit
55.1%
Avg Implied 50.4% · @ 1.85
Edge
+4.7%
31%
29%
40%
covers MVV + Draw
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.96
10Bet
1.95
Betano
1.93
Unibet
1.89
1xBet
1.84
MVV or FC Volendam✓ Hit
73.4%
Avg Implied 75.8% · @ 1.23
Edge
-2.4%
31%
29%
40%
covers MVV + FC Volendam
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.25
Betano
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Draw or FC Volendam✗ Miss
71.5%
Avg Implied 73.9% · @ 1.26
Edge
-2.3%
31%
29%
40%
covers Draw + FC Volendam
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.32
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
William Hil
1.29
888Sport
1.29
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
MVV over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.6%
@ 1.30+0.3%
Under
28.4%
@ 3.24-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.32
888Sport
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.50
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.30
888Sport
3.30
Betfair
3.25
MVV over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
35.9%
@ 2.46-1.8%
Under
64.1%
@ 1.49+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.55
Unibet
2.55
Betfair
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.49
Under
Pinnacle
1.54
BetVictor
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Betano
1.52
888Sport
1.50
MVV over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.4%
@ 5.69-2.9%
Under
86.6%
@ 1.11+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
6.25
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.80
1xBet
5.60
Under
Betano
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
MVV over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 13.75-3.0%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.02+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
888Sport
15.00
Superbet
13.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
FC Volendam over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
80.4%
@ 1.14-1.2%
Under
19.6%
@ 5.06+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
Under
10Bet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
Superbet
5.20
FC Volendam over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
48.5%
@ 1.68-6.9%
Under
51.5%
@ 2.08+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.72
888Sport
1.70
BetVictor
1.70
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Under
10Bet
2.15
Pinnacle
2.12
Unibet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
FC Volendam over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
22.4%
@ 3.09-7.5%
Under
77.6%
@ 1.32+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.25
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Betfair
3.20
Marathonbet
3.14
Under
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
FC Volendam over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.3%
@ 6.42-6.2%
Under
91.7%
@ 1.09+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
888Sport
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Superbet
6.40
Betano
5.90
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Superbet
1.08
888Sport
1.08
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to MVV, so a minus line means MVV give that many goals of a start and FC Volendam receive them. At -1, MVV must win by two or more to land; a one-goal MVV win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (MVV)Actual: FC Volendam
MVV -2
4.2%
@ 16.67-1.4%
Draw -2
8.3%
@ 10.27-0.6%
FC Volendam +2
87.5%
@ 1.07+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
18.00
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
15.00
Draw
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
8.80
Away
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Handicap -1 (MVV)Actual: Draw
MVV -1
12.5%
@ 7.52+0.5%
Draw -1
16.0%
@ 5.59-0.1%
FC Volendam +1
71.5%
@ 1.25-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
8.00
Bet365
7.50
Unibet
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
7.10
Draw
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Away
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Handicap +1 (MVV)Actual: MVV
MVV +1
55.1%
@ 1.86+7.4%
Draw +1
21.0%
@ 3.77-2.6%
FC Volendam -1
23.9%
@ 3.10-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.95
Unibet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.84
Superbet
1.83
Betfair
1.83
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.84
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Away
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Superbet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.08
10Bet
2.95
Handicap +2 (MVV)Actual: MVV
MVV +2
76.1%
@ 1.31+7.7%
Draw +2
13.9%
@ 5.28-3.1%
FC Volendam -2
10.0%
@ 6.13-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Draw
Marathonbet
5.55
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Superbet
5.30
10Bet
5.00
Away
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.10
Superbet
6.10
Unibet
5.60
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
MVV
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.90
0.47
0.80
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.48
0.88
0.42
0.67
0.54
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Volendam) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Volendam
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.80
0.47
0.60
0.40
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
0.67
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.94
0.38
1.12
0.67
0.78
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (MVV) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
74.9%
@ 1.25+1.0%
Under 0.5
25.1%
@ 3.53-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.80
William Hil
3.75
BetVictor
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Superbet
3.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
37.8%
@ 2.24-3.6%
Under 1.5
62.2%
@ 1.59+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.35
Pinnacle
2.32
1xBet
2.29
Marathonbet
2.29
Betfair
2.25
Under
10Bet
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Pinnacle
1.61
Superbet
1.60
BetVictor
1.58
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.2%
@ 5.11-3.0%
Under 2.5
84.8%
@ 1.13+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.40
Marathonbet
5.10
1xBet
5.10
William Hil
5.00
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
BetVictor
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
MVV over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
38.4%
@ 2.12-5.4%
Under
61.6%
@ 1.65+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.16
Pinnacle
2.15
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.69
Superbet
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.64
MVV over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.7%
@ 6.88-4.8%
Under
91.3%
@ 1.07+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.30
1xBet
7.30
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.40
Superbet
6.40
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
MVV over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 20.17-3.6%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
FC Volendam over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
60.8%
@ 1.65+4.8%
Under
39.2%
@ 2.11-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.68
1xBet
1.66
Superbet
1.65
Under
10Bet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.17
Unibet
2.14
Superbet
2.10
Betano
2.07
FC Volendam over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
27.2%
@ 4.21+5.2%
Under
72.8%
@ 1.19-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.45
1xBet
4.45
Betano
4.20
Superbet
4.10
10Bet
3.85
Under
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
FC Volendam over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.2%
@ 10.50-2.7%
Under
93.8%
@ 1.03+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
MVV
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.17
1.00
1.13
0.53
1.20
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.40
1.33
1.33
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (25)
0.72
1.12
0.92
1.08
0.54
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Volendam) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Volendam
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.80
0.67
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.83
0.67
1.00
0.17
0.67
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.59
0.75
0.50
0.56
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (MVV) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
MVV over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MVV over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MVV over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Volendam over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Volendam over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Volendam over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.0%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
Superbet
1.01
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
93.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.7%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
91.7%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Superbet
1.08
888Sport
1.08
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.3%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
87.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
86.6%
1.11
Betano
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.8%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
BetVictor
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
83.3%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
80.4%
1.14
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
-1.2%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
77.6%
1.32
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
+7.5%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
76.1%
1.31
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
+7.7%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.0%
1.16
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
888Sport
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Bet365
1.17
-5.4%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.9%
1.25
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+1.0%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
73.4%
1.23
888Sport
1.25
Betano
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
-2.4%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.0%
1.55
Pinnacle
1.58
10Bet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Superbet
1.55
+12.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
72.8%
1.19
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
-5.2%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
71.6%
1.30
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.32
888Sport
1.30
Bet365
1.30
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
71.5%
1.26
Betano
1.32
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
William Hil
1.29
888Sport
1.29
-2.3%
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
71.5%
1.25
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.22
-0.5%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
MVV
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Olivier Dumont50%
Jael Pawaridihadjo33%
Noa el Hamdaoui33%
Stan Van Dessel25%
Elias Sierra25%
Lennerd Daneels0%
Delano Asante0%
Hugo Wentges0%
Finn Dicke0%
Milan Hofland0%
Sil van der Wegen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lennerd Daneels25%
Delano Asante25%
Milan Hofland25%
Sil van der Wegen25%
Stan Van Dessel0%
Elias Sierra0%
Hugo Wentges0%
Olivier Dumont0%
Finn Dicke0%
Jael Pawaridihadjo0%
Noa el Hamdaoui0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lennerd Daneels25%
Delano Asante25%
Olivier Dumont25%
Finn Dicke25%
Milan Hofland25%
Stan Van Dessel0%
Elias Sierra0%
Hugo Wentges0%
Sil van der Wegen0%
Jael Pawaridihadjo0%
Noa el Hamdaoui0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Noa el Hamdaoui33%
Lennerd Daneels25%
Olivier Dumont25%
Stan Van Dessel0%
Delano Asante0%
Elias Sierra0%
Hugo Wentges0%
Finn Dicke0%
Milan Hofland0%
Sil van der Wegen0%
Jael Pawaridihadjo0%
FC Volendam
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Henk Veerman67%
Reuven Niemeijer33%
Nick Doodeman33%
Alex Plat0%
Mawouna Amevor0%
Daan Huisman0%
Roy Steur0%
Kayden Wolff0%
Precious Ugwu0%
Nordin Bukala0%
Luca Blondeau0%
Jesper Tielemans0%
Jaïr Haakmat0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nick Doodeman33%
Daan Huisman33%
Jaïr Haakmat33%
Henk Veerman0%
Reuven Niemeijer0%
Alex Plat0%
Mawouna Amevor0%
Roy Steur0%
Kayden Wolff0%
Precious Ugwu0%
Nordin Bukala0%
Luca Blondeau0%
Jesper Tielemans0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nick Doodeman67%
Reuven Niemeijer33%
Alex Plat33%
Henk Veerman0%
Mawouna Amevor0%
Daan Huisman0%
Roy Steur0%
Kayden Wolff0%
Precious Ugwu0%
Nordin Bukala0%
Luca Blondeau0%
Jesper Tielemans0%
Jaïr Haakmat0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Henk Veerman33%
Reuven Niemeijer33%
Alex Plat0%
Nick Doodeman0%
Mawouna Amevor0%
Daan Huisman0%
Roy Steur0%
Kayden Wolff0%
Precious Ugwu0%
Nordin Bukala0%
Luca Blondeau0%
Jesper Tielemans0%
Jaïr Haakmat0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
MVV's squad is €2m less valuable than FC Volendam's (€4m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
MVV and FC Volendam have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
MVV and FC Volendam have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
MVV's defence is €2m less valuable than FC Volendam's (€2m vs €3m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Heracles
Almere City FC
VVV Venlo
Emmen
Jong PSV U21
Vitesse
Roda
NAC Breda
Jong AZ
Waalwijk
Den Bosch
Jong Ajax
Dordrecht
FC OSS
FC Eindhoven
Helmond Sport
De Graafschap
Jong Utrecht