This opponent (Utrecht) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Utrecht
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.43
1.69
1.00
1.57
1.93
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
2.60
1.50
2.50
0.33
2.67
vs Similar (3)
1.67
2.00
2.00
1.00
1.50
2.50
vs Weaker (22)
1.82
1.09
1.69
0.77
2.00
1.56
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (NAC Breda) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.9%
Under 1.5
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.3%
Under 2.5
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.4%
Under 3.5
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.9%
No
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
7.5%
2-2
6.8%
0-2
5.7%
1-3
5.3%
0-1
5.3%
0-0
4.4%
NAC Breda goals ↓
Utrecht goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
5.3%
5.7%
3.4%
1.6%
1
4.4%
11%
8.8%
5.3%
2.4%
2
4.2%
7.5%
6.8%
4.1%
1.9%
3
2.2%
3.9%
3.5%
2.1%
1.0%
4
0.8%
1.5%
1.4%
0.8%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = NAC Breda goals (down), columns = Utrecht goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ajax
2.53
PSV Eindhoven
2.44
Feyenoord
1.91
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Vitesse
1.56
Utrecht
1.56
Heracles
1.41
Groningen
1.32
Den Haag
1.32
Willem II
1.29
VVV Venlo
1.21
Heerenveen
1.21
PEC Zwolle
1.15
Emmen
1.12
Fortuna Sittard
1.00
Excelsior
0.97
De Graafschap
0.85
NAC Breda
0.68
NAC Breda is 0.88 points worse than Utrecht in terms of average points per game (0.68 vs 1.56).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ajax
3.50
PSV Eindhoven
2.88
Feyenoord
2.21
Vitesse
2.06
AZ Alkmaar
1.88
Heerenveen
1.88
Heracles
1.79
Utrecht
1.76
Den Haag
1.71
Willem II
1.71
Fortuna Sittard
1.47
VVV Venlo
1.38
Excelsior
1.35
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Emmen
1.21
Groningen
1.15
De Graafschap
1.12
NAC Breda
0.85
NAC Breda is 0.91 goals worse than Utrecht in terms of goals scored per game (0.85 vs 1.76).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
PSV Eindhoven
0.76
Ajax
0.94
Groningen
1.21
Feyenoord
1.21
AZ Alkmaar
1.26
Vitesse
1.50
Utrecht
1.50
PEC Zwolle
1.68
Den Haag
1.85
VVV Venlo
1.85
Heracles
2.00
Willem II
2.12
Emmen
2.12
Heerenveen
2.15
NAC Breda
2.18
De Graafschap
2.21
Excelsior
2.32
Fortuna Sittard
2.35
NAC Breda is 0.68 goals worse than Utrecht in terms of goals conceded per game (2.18 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
NAC Breda
For 4.3 · Against 6.9 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 9.3 · Total 21.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Utrecht
For 5.7 · Against 5.7 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 11.9 · Total 21.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
NAC Breda
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
9.6
11.7
3.3
3.8
2.9
22.5
22.2
22.7
vs Stronger (17)
11.7
9.6
13.6
3.9
4.5
3.3
20.6
20.2
21.0
vs Similar (33)
10.2
9.6
10.7
3.1
3.5
2.6
23.4
23.2
23.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
64%
50%
77%
46%
58%
35%
50%
46%
54%
% under line
36%
50%
23%
54%
42%
65%
50%
54%
46%
This opponent (Utrecht) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Utrecht
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
11.2
10.5
3.3
3.4
3.2
23.0
22.9
23.2
vs Stronger (9)
10.8
13.0
9.0
3.1
3.5
2.8
22.9
22.5
23.2
vs Similar (6)
9.8
9.0
10.7
3.0
4.0
2.0
24.3
23.7
25.0
vs Weaker (35)
11.1
11.2
11.0
3.5
3.3
3.6
22.8
22.8
22.8
% over line
62%
62%
62%
44%
46%
42%
60%
50%
71%
% under line
38%
38%
38%
56%
54%
58%
40%
50%
29%
This opponent (NAC Breda) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Excelsior
12.0
Ajax
11.5
Feyenoord
11.2
Den Haag
11.2
Fortuna Sittard
11.2
Heracles
11.1
PSV Eindhoven
10.9
Utrecht
10.9
AZ Alkmaar
10.9
NAC Breda
10.7
Emmen
10.7
Willem II
10.5
Vitesse
10.4
VVV Venlo
10.4
PEC Zwolle
10.4
De Graafschap
9.9
Groningen
9.8
Heerenveen
9.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
PSV Eindhoven
3.9
PEC Zwolle
3.9
Fortuna Sittard
3.8
De Graafschap
3.5
Vitesse
3.5
Groningen
3.4
AZ Alkmaar
3.4
NAC Breda
3.3
Utrecht
3.3
Ajax
3.3
VVV Venlo
3.3
Willem II
3.3
Emmen
3.3
Den Haag
3.2
Excelsior
3.2
Heracles
3.1
Heerenveen
3.1
Feyenoord
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Fortuna Sittard
24.5
Heerenveen
24.3
De Graafschap
24.0
Emmen
23.9
Heracles
23.7
PEC Zwolle
23.7
Vitesse
23.5
VVV Venlo
23.2
Willem II
23.1
Utrecht
23.0
AZ Alkmaar
22.8
Ajax
22.5
PSV Eindhoven
22.5
NAC Breda
22.5
Den Haag
22.5
Groningen
22.4
Excelsior
22.1
Feyenoord
21.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
57.3%
Under 9.5
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.9%
Under 3.5
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
56.5%
Under 21.5
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
NAC Breda
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.83
0.67
0.73
0.33
0.93
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
1.11
0.00
0.67
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.71
0.83
0.75
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Utrecht) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Utrecht
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.43
1.06
0.12
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
1.00
0.50
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (3)
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
0.77
0.27
1.08
0.00
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
73% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (NAC Breda) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
NAC Breda over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NAC Breda over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NAC Breda over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
NAC Breda
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.27
0.73
0.73
0.27
1.80
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
1.89
0.00
2.00
0.33
1.83
vs Similar (21)
0.62
1.00
0.92
0.42
0.22
1.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Utrecht) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Utrecht
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.00
0.62
0.88
1.07
1.14
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.80
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (3)
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Weaker (22)
1.05
0.82
0.62
0.77
1.67
0.89
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (NAC Breda) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
NAC Breda over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NAC Breda over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NAC Breda over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
NAC Breda · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Paul Gladon50%
Moussa Soumano50%
Pepijn Reulen50%
Leo Greiml0%
Jan Van den Bergh0%
Michael Verrips0%
Rio Hillen0%
Mats Seuntjens0%
Fredrik Jensen0%
Jannes Van Hecke0%
Boyd Lucassen0%
Charles-Andreas Brym0%
Mohamed Nassoh0%
Maximilien Balard0%
Imran Nazih0%
Cherrion Valerius0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jan Van den Bergh50%
Fredrik Jensen50%
Mats Seuntjens33%
Maximilien Balard33%
Michael Verrips25%
Paul Gladon25%
Mohamed Nassoh25%
Pepijn Reulen25%
Leo Greiml0%
Rio Hillen0%
Jannes Van Hecke0%
Boyd Lucassen0%
Charles-Andreas Brym0%
Imran Nazih0%
Moussa Soumano0%
Cherrion Valerius0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mats Seuntjens33%
Jannes Van Hecke33%
Boyd Lucassen25%
Leo Greiml0%
Jan Van den Bergh0%
Michael Verrips0%
Rio Hillen0%
Paul Gladon0%
Fredrik Jensen0%
Charles-Andreas Brym0%
Mohamed Nassoh0%
Maximilien Balard0%
Imran Nazih0%
Moussa Soumano0%
Cherrion Valerius0%
Pepijn Reulen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Paul Gladon50%
Mats Seuntjens33%
Leo Greiml25%
Rio Hillen25%
Charles-Andreas Brym25%
Moussa Soumano25%
Jan Van den Bergh0%
Michael Verrips0%
Fredrik Jensen0%
Jannes Van Hecke0%
Boyd Lucassen0%
Mohamed Nassoh0%
Maximilien Balard0%
Imran Nazih0%
Cherrion Valerius0%
Pepijn Reulen0%
Utrecht · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Artem Stepanov100%
Adrian Blake50%
Arthur Zagre0%
Dani De Wit0%
Vasilis Barkas0%
Siebe Horemans0%
Niklas Vesterlund0%
Neville Nwankwo0%
Kevin Paredes0%
Davy van den Berg0%
Yoann Cathline0%
Guus Offerhaus0%
Ángel Alarcón0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Arthur Zagre50%
Dani De Wit50%
Guus Offerhaus50%
Vasilis Barkas33%
Artem Stepanov33%
Siebe Horemans25%
Niklas Vesterlund0%
Neville Nwankwo0%
Kevin Paredes0%
Davy van den Berg0%
Yoann Cathline0%
Ángel Alarcón0%
Adrian Blake0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Niklas Vesterlund50%
Yoann Cathline50%
Davy van den Berg25%
Arthur Zagre0%
Dani De Wit0%
Vasilis Barkas0%
Siebe Horemans0%
Neville Nwankwo0%
Kevin Paredes0%
Guus Offerhaus0%
Ángel Alarcón0%
Adrian Blake0%
Artem Stepanov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ángel Alarcón25%
Arthur Zagre0%
Dani De Wit0%
Vasilis Barkas0%
Siebe Horemans0%
Niklas Vesterlund0%
Neville Nwankwo0%
Kevin Paredes0%
Davy van den Berg0%
Yoann Cathline0%
Guus Offerhaus0%
Adrian Blake0%
Artem Stepanov0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
UTR (26)
€61m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
WI (24)
€13m
NB (23)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
DG (21)
€6m
EMM (21)
€5m
VV (19)
€4m
NAC Breda's squad is €51m less valuable than Utrecht's (€10m vs €61m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
GRO (7)
€12m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
DG (8)
€2m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
NAC Breda's attack is €29m less valuable than Utrecht's (€4m vs €33m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
VV (3)
€0m
NAC Breda's midfield is €12m less valuable than Utrecht's (€2m vs €14m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
PZ (10)
€10m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (11)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
NAC Breda's defence is €11m less valuable than Utrecht's (€4m vs €15m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ajax
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
AZ Alkmaar
Vitesse
Heracles
Groningen
Willem II
Heerenveen
VVV Venlo
PEC Zwolle
Emmen
Fortuna Sittard
Excelsior
De Graafschap