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Naestved vs Hillerød Result & Analysis

Date: 02/10/2022
Time: 11:00
Final 2-0
Naestved
Naestved
Vs
68%
20%
12%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Hillerød
Hillerød
Denmark: 1. Division
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Naestved win✓ Hit
67.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hillerød win✗ Miss
12.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

NaestvedNaestved

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-622D10W20W00D06L30W11D30W11D21WH·HVI24/07A·FC 29/07H·HOB07/08A·FRE12/08A·VEJ17/08H·NYK21/08A·SON26/08H·VEN04/09A·HB 09/09A·FC 16/09
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.102.500.500.831.50
vs Stronger (3)0.672.33--0.672.33
vs Similar (6)1.670.672.330.671.000.67
vs Weaker (1)3.000.003.000.00--
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HillerødHillerød

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-515L15L13L02L21W11D02L01L02L31WA·VEN22/07H·SON30/07A·HVI05/08H·HB 11/08H·FC 17/08A·HOB20/08H·VEJ27/08A·FRE02/09H·FC 10/09H·NYK17/09
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.902.301.002.170.752.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.712.140.752.500.671.67
vs Weaker (3)1.332.671.501.501.005.00
Clean sheet %0% (-26pp vs league)
This opponent (Naestved) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.6%
Under 1.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
61.8%
Under 2.5
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.5%
Under 3.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.2%
No
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0 ✓
10.8%
2-1
9.7%
1-1
9.3%
1-0
8.6%
3-0
8.2%
3-1
7.4%
0-0
5.0%
4-0
4.7%
Naestved goals ↓
Hillerød goals →
01234
05.0%2.9%1.7%0.5%0.1%
18.6%9.3%3.8%1.1%0.3%
211%9.7%4.4%1.3%0.3%
38.2%7.4%3.3%1.0%0.2%
44.7%4.3%1.9%0.6%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Naestved goals (down), columns = Hillerød goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Vejle
2.09
Hvidovre
1.81
Sonderjyske
1.75
Vendsyssel FF
1.44
FC Fredericia
1.41
HB Koge
1.38
Naestved
1.34
FC Helsingor
1.31
Hillerød
1.28
Hobro
1.19
Fremad Amager
1.06
Nykobing FC
0.72
Naestved is 0.06 points better than Hillerød in terms of average points per game (1.34 vs 1.28).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hvidovre
2.03
Vejle
1.91
Sonderjyske
1.88
FC Fredericia
1.75
Naestved
1.56
HB Koge
1.56
Vendsyssel FF
1.50
FC Helsingor
1.47
Nykobing FC
1.34
Fremad Amager
1.19
Hillerød
1.16
Hobro
1.03
Naestved is 0.41 goals better than Hillerød in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 1.16).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Vejle
0.94
Hvidovre
1.28
Hobro
1.31
Vendsyssel FF
1.34
Sonderjyske
1.41
Naestved
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Hillerød
1.59
HB Koge
1.59
FC Helsingor
1.75
Fremad Amager
1.88
Nykobing FC
2.28
Naestved is 0.09 goals better than Hillerød in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.59).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

NaestvedNaestved

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L10W20W00D04L20W01L10W01L21WH·HVI24/07A·FC 29/07H·HOB07/08A·FRE12/08A·VEJ17/08H·NYK21/08A·SON26/08H·VEN04/09A·HB 09/09A·FC 16/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.901.500.500.501.17
vs Stronger (3)0.331.67--0.331.67
vs Similar (6)1.170.671.670.670.670.67
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HillerødHillerød

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L13L02L01L00D01L01L01L00D11DA·VEN22/07H·SON30/07A·HVI05/08H·HB 11/08H·FC 17/08A·HOB20/08H·VEJ27/08A·FRE02/09H·FC 10/09H·NYK17/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.201.200.331.000.001.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.141.290.251.250.001.33
vs Weaker (3)0.331.000.500.500.002.00
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Naestved) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Naestved over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naestved over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naestved over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

NaestvedNaestved

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D00D00D02L10W10W20W10W00DH·HVI24/07A·FC 29/07H·HOB07/08A·FRE12/08A·VEJ17/08H·NYK21/08A·SON26/08H·VEN04/09A·HB 09/09A·FC 16/09
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.201.000.000.330.33
vs Stronger (3)0.330.67--0.330.67
vs Similar (6)0.500.000.670.000.330.00
vs Weaker (1)2.000.002.000.00--
Clean sheet %90% (+64pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HillerødHillerød

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L02L11D01L21W10W01L00D02L20WA·VEN22/07H·SON30/07A·HVI05/08H·HB 11/08H·FC 17/08A·HOB20/08H·VEJ27/08A·FRE02/09H·FC 10/09H·NYK17/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.100.671.170.751.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.570.860.501.250.670.33
vs Weaker (3)1.001.671.001.001.003.00
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Naestved) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Naestved over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naestved over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naestved over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SON (26)
€13m
VEJ (22)
€9m
FF (17)
€8m
HOB (23)
€7m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
VF (3)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEJ (7)
€3m
SON (6)
€3m
FF (5)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
VF (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SON (7)
€3m
FF (5)
€3m
VEJ (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
VF (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SON (13)
€6m
VEJ (9)
€4m
FF (7)
€3m
HOB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
VF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
NAE wins
0
Draws
0
HIL wins

Head-to-head

Naestved vs Hillerød · H/A from NAE
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

NaestvedNaestved

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/09/22AFC Helsingor Vs NAE1-2
09/09/22AHB Koge Vs NAE1-1
04/09/22HNAE Vs Vendsyssel FF3-0
26/08/22ASonderjyske Vs NAE1-1
21/08/22HNAE Vs Nykobing FC3-0
17/08/22AVejle Vs NAE6-0
12/08/22AFremad Amager Vs NAE0-0
07/08/22HNAE Vs Hobro2-0
29/07/22AFC Fredericia Vs NAE0-1
24/07/22HNAE Vs Hvidovre2-2

HillerødHillerød

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/09/22HHIL Vs Nykobing FC3-1
10/09/22HHIL Vs FC Helsingor0-2
02/09/22AFremad Amager Vs HIL1-0
27/08/22HHIL Vs Vejle0-2
20/08/22AHobro Vs HIL1-1
17/08/22HHIL Vs FC Fredericia2-1
11/08/22HHIL Vs HB Koge0-2
05/08/22AHvidovre Vs HIL3-1
30/07/22HHIL Vs Sonderjyske1-5
22/07/22AVendsyssel FF Vs HIL5-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Naestved
Naestved
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWDW1.90
HomeDWWW2.50
AwayDLDDW1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%75%33%
AVG goals2.603.002.33
Over 1.5 %80%100%67%
Over 2.5 %50%75%33%
Over 3.5 %20%25%17%
Scored1.502.500.83
Conceded1.100.501.50
BTTS40%25%50%
Clean Sheet50%75%33%
Corners---
Cards---
Hillerød
Hillerød
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLW0.70
HomeLWLLW1.00
AwayLLDL0.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%33%0%
AVG goals3.203.173.25
Over 1.5 %90%100%75%
Over 2.5 %50%50%50%
Over 3.5 %40%33%50%
Scored0.901.000.75
Conceded2.302.172.50
BTTS60%50%75%
Clean Sheet0%0%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1VejleVejle3267
62%
2.1
6130+31
2.8
75%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3241.90.9
-
2HvidovreHvidovre3258
53%
1.8
6541+24
3.3
81%
69%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.01.3
-
3SonderjyskeSonderjyske3256
50%
1.8
6045+15
3.3
78%
66%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
3361.91.4
-
4Vendsyssel FFVendsyssel FF3246
41%
1.4
4843+5
2.8
75%
56%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.3
-
5FC FredericiaFC Fredericia3245
41%
1.4
5648+8
3.2
78%
69%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
2331.81.5
-
6HB KogeHB Koge3244
41%
1.4
5051-1
3.2
72%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.61.6
-
7NaestvedNaestved3243
34%
1.3
5048+2
3.1
84%
56%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.5
-
8FC HelsingorFC Helsingor3242
41%
1.3
4756-9
3.2
72%
59%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
-
9HillerødHillerød3241
38%
1.3
3751-14
2.8
81%
41%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.6
-
10HobroHobro3238
28%
1.2
3342-9
2.3
69%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.01.3
-
11Fremad AmagerFremad Amager3234
31%
1.1
3860-22
3.1
69%
66%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
12Nykobing FCNykobing FC3223
19%
0.7
4373-30
3.6
91%
66%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.3
-
Denmark: 1. Division 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →

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