This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hillerød
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.20
1.60
1.07
2.33
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.60
1.00
1.31
0.92
1.92
1.08
vs Weaker (5)
3.80
2.20
3.50
2.00
4.00
2.33
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Naestved) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.3%
Under 1.5
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.1%
Under 2.5
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.0%
Under 3.5
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.5%
No
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
0-1
10.4%
0-0
10.0%
1-2
8.6%
1-0
8.3%
0-2 ✓
7.8%
2-1
7.1%
2-0
5.3%
Naestved goals ↓
Hillerød goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10.0%
10%
7.8%
3.5%
1.2%
1
8.3%
14%
8.6%
3.8%
1.3%
2
5.3%
7.1%
4.7%
2.1%
0.7%
3
1.9%
2.6%
1.7%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Naestved goals (down), columns = Hillerød goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Copenhagen
3.00
Skive
2.50
Esbjerg
2.25
Frem
2.25
Holbæk B&I
2.25
Næsby
2.25
Sonderjyske
2.00
FC Nordsjaelland
2.00
Silkeborg
2.00
FC Fredericia
2.00
HB Koge
2.00
Aalborg
2.00
Hillerød
2.00
Vendsyssel FF
2.00
B 93
2.00
FC Helsingor
2.00
Nykobing FC
2.00
Gørslev
2.00
VSK Århus
2.00
Vanløse
2.00
Ishøj
2.00
Holstebro
2.00
Avarta
2.00
Brabrand
1.83
Aarhus
1.75
Brondby
1.67
Hvidovre
1.67
Kolding IF
1.67
Middelfart
1.67
Viborg
1.57
FC Midtjylland
1.50
AC Horsens
1.50
Randers FC
1.50
Aarhus Fremad
1.50
Hobro
1.50
AB Copenhagen
1.50
NB Bornholm
1.50
OKS
1.50
SGI
1.50
Vejgaard B
1.50
Allerød
1.50
B 1913
1.50
B 1909
1.50
Solrød
1.50
Morud/Veflinge
1.50
B 1908
1.50
Silkeborg KFUM
1.50
Thisted FC
1.50
Hørsholm-Usserød
1.50
Give Fremad
1.50
Herlev
1.50
ACFC
1.50
Roskilde
1.33
Fremad Amager
1.33
Brønshøj
1.33
Odense
1.00
Vejle
1.00
Dalum
1.00
Kolding B
0.50
Lyngby
0.00
Naestved
0.00
HIK
0.00
Karlslunde
0.00
Ringkøbing
0.00
Varde
0.00
Svebølle
0.00
Fredericia FF
0.00
Gug
0.00
Lyseng
0.00
FA 2000
0.00
Kastrup
0.00
ESPM
0.00
Kjellerup
0.00
Vatanspor
0.00
AB Tårnby
0.00
FB
0.00
Ringsted
0.00
ASA Aarhus
0.00
Odder
0.00
FC Nakskov
0.00
Sundby
0.00
SfB-Oure
0.00
Skjold Birkerød
0.00
Nørresundby
0.00
Tarup-Paarup
0.00
Christiansbjerg
0.00
Aalborg Chang
0.00
B 1960
0.00
Bagsværd
0.00
Skjern
0.00
ØB
0.00
NFB
0.00
LUIF
0.00
Aalborg Freja
0.00
Jyllinge
0.00
Gladsaxe
0.00
Lemming
0.00
Sønderborg Fremad
0.00
Herlufsholm
0.00
BiH Odense
0.00
Nerashté Ballerup
0.00
Vigerslev
0.00
LKB-Gistrup
0.00
BBB
0.00
Naestved is 2.00 points worse than Hillerød in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vanløse
5.50
Randers FC
5.00
FC Fredericia
4.67
Holstebro
4.67
Næsby
4.50
Ishøj
4.00
Skive
3.75
Sonderjyske
3.67
Esbjerg
3.50
B 1913
3.50
Frem
3.25
Aalborg
3.20
FC Nordsjaelland
3.00
Silkeborg
2.57
AC Horsens
2.50
Hobro
2.50
OKS
2.50
SGI
2.50
Vejgaard B
2.50
Silkeborg KFUM
2.50
Hørsholm-Usserød
2.50
Brondby
2.33
HB Koge
2.33
Kolding IF
2.33
Viborg
2.29
FC Midtjylland
2.00
AB Copenhagen
2.00
Hillerød
2.00
B 93
2.00
FC Helsingor
2.00
Fremad Amager
2.00
Gørslev
2.00
Solrød
2.00
Avarta
2.00
Skjold Birkerød
2.00
Tarup-Paarup
2.00
ACFC
2.00
LKB-Gistrup
2.00
FC Copenhagen
1.86
Aarhus
1.75
Holbæk B&I
1.75
Aarhus Fremad
1.50
NB Bornholm
1.50
Allerød
1.50
B 1909
1.50
Morud/Veflinge
1.50
Brabrand
1.50
Hvidovre
1.33
Middelfart
1.33
Roskilde
1.33
VSK Århus
1.33
Lyngby
1.00
Vejle
1.00
Vendsyssel FF
1.00
Nykobing FC
1.00
Ringkøbing
1.00
FA 2000
1.00
Kastrup
1.00
AB Tårnby
1.00
Brønshøj
1.00
Kolding B
1.00
B 1908
1.00
Ringsted
1.00
ASA Aarhus
1.00
FC Nakskov
1.00
Sundby
1.00
Thisted FC
1.00
SfB-Oure
1.00
Nørresundby
1.00
Dalum
1.00
Christiansbjerg
1.00
Bagsværd
1.00
ØB
1.00
Aalborg Freja
1.00
Lemming
1.00
Sønderborg Fremad
1.00
BiH Odense
1.00
Give Fremad
1.00
Herlev
1.00
BBB
1.00
Odense
0.00
Naestved
0.00
HIK
0.00
Karlslunde
0.00
Varde
0.00
Svebølle
0.00
Fredericia FF
0.00
Gug
0.00
Lyseng
0.00
ESPM
0.00
Kjellerup
0.00
Vatanspor
0.00
FB
0.00
Odder
0.00
Aalborg Chang
0.00
B 1960
0.00
Skjern
0.00
NFB
0.00
LUIF
0.00
Jyllinge
0.00
Gladsaxe
0.00
Herlufsholm
0.00
Nerashté Ballerup
0.00
Vigerslev
0.00
Naestved is 2.00 goals worse than Hillerød in terms of goals scored per game (0.00 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Odense
0.00
FC Copenhagen
0.29
FC Nordsjaelland
0.50
Randers FC
0.50
Nykobing FC
0.50
Vanløse
0.50
Skive
0.50
Viborg
0.71
FC Midtjylland
1.00
Vejle
1.00
Aarhus Fremad
1.00
HB Koge
1.00
AB Copenhagen
1.00
Hvidovre
1.00
Aalborg
1.00
Kolding IF
1.00
Middelfart
1.00
B 93
1.00
Karlslunde
1.00
Svebølle
1.00
Lyseng
1.00
Gørslev
1.00
VSK Århus
1.00
Frem
1.00
Allerød
1.00
Hørsholm-Usserød
1.00
Dalum
1.00
Nerashté Ballerup
1.00
Vigerslev
1.00
Esbjerg
1.25
Brondby
1.33
Sonderjyske
1.33
Roskilde
1.33
Ishøj
1.33
Holstebro
1.33
Avarta
1.33
Aarhus
1.50
Hobro
1.50
OKS
1.50
Kolding B
1.50
Brabrand
1.50
Silkeborg
1.57
FC Fredericia
1.67
Hillerød
1.67
Brønshøj
1.67
Holbæk B&I
1.75
Næsby
1.75
AC Horsens
2.00
Vendsyssel FF
2.00
FC Helsingor
2.00
Naestved
2.00
Fremad Amager
2.00
HIK
2.00
Kastrup
2.00
Vatanspor
2.00
Vejgaard B
2.00
B 1908
2.00
Ringsted
2.00
ASA Aarhus
2.00
Odder
2.00
Silkeborg KFUM
2.00
Thisted FC
2.00
Gladsaxe
2.00
Herlev
2.00
BBB
2.00
NB Bornholm
2.50
SGI
2.50
B 1909
2.50
Gug
3.00
AB Tårnby
3.00
Sundby
3.00
SfB-Oure
3.00
Skjold Birkerød
3.00
Tarup-Paarup
3.00
Christiansbjerg
3.00
Aalborg Chang
3.00
B 1960
3.00
Jyllinge
3.00
Give Fremad
3.00
LKB-Gistrup
3.00
Lyngby
4.00
FB
4.00
Solrød
4.00
FC Nakskov
4.00
Nørresundby
4.00
Skjern
4.00
Aalborg Freja
4.00
Herlufsholm
4.00
BiH Odense
4.00
Morud/Veflinge
4.50
FA 2000
5.00
ESPM
5.00
Kjellerup
5.00
ØB
5.00
B 1913
5.50
Varde
6.00
Bagsværd
6.00
NFB
6.00
ACFC
6.00
Sønderborg Fremad
7.00
Fredericia FF
8.00
Ringkøbing
9.00
LUIF
10.00
Lemming
10.00
Naestved is 0.33 goals worse than Hillerød in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Naestved or Draw✗ Miss
59.2%
Avg Implied -
29%
30%
41%
covers Naestved + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Naestved or Hillerød✓ Hit
70.3%
Avg Implied -
29%
30%
41%
covers Naestved + Hillerød
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hillerød✓ Hit
70.6%
Avg Implied -
29%
30%
41%
covers Draw + Hillerød
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Naestved over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
66.8%
Under
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naestved over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
30.1%
Under
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naestved over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.0%
Under
90.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naestved over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.8%
Under
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
38.7%
Under
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.2%
Under
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Naestved, so a minus line means Naestved give that many goals of a start and Hillerød receive them. At -1, Naestved must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Naestved win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Naestved)Actual: Hillerød
Naestved -2
3.7%
Draw -2
8.4%
Hillerød +2
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Naestved)Actual: Hillerød
Naestved -1
12.1%
Draw -1
17.4%
Hillerød +1
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Naestved)Actual: Hillerød
Naestved +1
59.2%
Draw +1
21.4%
Hillerød -1
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Naestved)Actual: Draw
Naestved +2
80.5%
Draw +2
12.4%
Hillerød -2
7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Naestved
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.33
0.33
1.33
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.59
0.58
0.58
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hillerød
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.43
0.67
0.33
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.32
0.54
0.23
0.58
0.42
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Naestved) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Naestved over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naestved over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naestved over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Naestved
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.83
0.62
0.69
0.36
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.00
0.33
0.33
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.86
0.67
0.83
0.40
0.90
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hillerød
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.77
0.93
0.73
1.60
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.04
0.68
0.77
0.69
1.33
0.67
vs Weaker (5)
2.40
1.20
2.00
1.00
2.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Naestved) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Naestved over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naestved over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naestved over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
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-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.7%
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-
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-
-
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-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.4%
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-
-
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-
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-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.2%
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-
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-
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✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.3%
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-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
90.0%
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-
-
-
-
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-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.9%
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-
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-
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✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
87.9%
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-
-
-
-
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-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
84.8%
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-
-
-
-
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✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
80.5%
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✗ Miss
Under 3.5
77.0%
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-
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✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
73.8%
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✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.3%
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✓ Hit
Draw or Away
70.6%
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-
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✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
70.6%
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-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.3%
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-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Denmark: 1. Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →