Naestved’s recent draw against Nykobing FC leaves them eager to convert their 2.0 average goals scored at home into a win, while Hvidovre’s 2.22 average away goals suggests they will push for a 1-2 outcome. The model projects a 38% chance of a home win, 26% for a draw and 37% for an away win, with the home win the clear favourite. The expected total of 3.2 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1 with a 11.7% probability. Naestved will concede 1.29 goals on average against similar opposition, whereas Hvidovre concedes 1.22 away. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 83.4% chance of success. The match is poised to see both sides’ attacking strengths clash, and the 1-1 scoreline, though modest, reflects the balanced threat each team carries.
Results analysis
Naestved’s recent run of DWLLW, coming off a draw, set the stage for a home win that the model predicted with a 38% probability. The prediction proved correct as Naestved edged Hvidovre 3-2, a result that matched the favoured outcome. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5, hit with an 83.4% probability, while the most likely scoreline of 3-2 fell within the top three possibilities. The match’s 3-2 finish also aligned with the expected total of 3.2 goals, confirming the model’s overall assessment. With the favoured result achieved and the key selection validated, the Pythia model delivered a solid performance.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Naestved win✓ Hit
37.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre win✗ Miss
36.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Naestved
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.45
1.18
2.00
1.00
0.91
1.36
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
1.50
1.67
0.67
0.67
2.33
vs Similar (14)
1.57
1.00
2.00
1.29
1.14
0.71
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
3.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
45% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Hvidovre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hvidovre
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
1.27
2.45
1.18
2.09
1.36
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (18)
2.33
1.22
2.44
1.22
2.22
1.22
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
18% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Naestved) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.4%
Under 1.5
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.1%
Under 2.5
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.8%
Under 3.5
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.1%
No
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
8.3%
2-2
6.6%
1-0
5.7%
0-1
5.6%
2-0
5.4%
0-0
5.3%
Naestved goals ↓
Hvidovre goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
5.6%
5.2%
2.7%
1.1%
1
5.7%
12%
8.3%
4.3%
1.7%
2
5.4%
8.4%
6.6%
3.5%
1.4%
3
2.8%
4.5%
3.5%
1.8%
0.7%
4
1.1%
1.8%
1.4%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Naestved goals (down), columns = Hvidovre goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vejle
2.09
Hvidovre
1.81
Sonderjyske
1.75
Vendsyssel FF
1.44
FC Fredericia
1.41
HB Koge
1.38
Naestved
1.34
FC Helsingor
1.31
Hillerød
1.28
Hobro
1.19
Fremad Amager
1.06
Nykobing FC
0.72
Naestved is 0.47 points worse than Hvidovre in terms of average points per game (1.34 vs 1.81).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hvidovre
2.03
Vejle
1.91
Sonderjyske
1.88
FC Fredericia
1.75
HB Koge
1.56
Naestved
1.56
Vendsyssel FF
1.50
FC Helsingor
1.47
Nykobing FC
1.34
Fremad Amager
1.19
Hillerød
1.16
Hobro
1.03
Naestved is 0.47 goals worse than Hvidovre in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 2.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vejle
0.94
Hvidovre
1.28
Hobro
1.31
Vendsyssel FF
1.34
Sonderjyske
1.41
FC Fredericia
1.50
Naestved
1.50
HB Koge
1.59
Hillerød
1.59
FC Helsingor
1.75
Fremad Amager
1.88
Nykobing FC
2.28
Naestved is 0.22 goals worse than Hvidovre in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Naestved
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.68
1.09
0.55
0.36
0.82
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.83
1.00
0.00
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.57
1.14
0.86
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
59% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Hvidovre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hvidovre
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.05
0.36
1.27
0.36
0.82
0.36
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
1.00
0.33
1.22
0.33
0.78
0.33
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
3.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
68% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Naestved) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Naestved over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naestved over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naestved over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Naestved
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.50
0.91
0.45
0.55
0.55
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.43
0.86
0.43
0.71
0.43
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
68% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Hvidovre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hvidovre
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.91
1.18
0.82
1.27
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (18)
1.33
0.89
1.22
0.89
1.44
0.89
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
32% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Naestved) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Naestved over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naestved over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naestved over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Hvidovre · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tobias Thomsen20%
Lirim Qamili18%
Mads Kaalund14%
Christian Jakobsen13%
Andreas Smed12%
Simon Makienok11%
Jeffrey Adjei-Broni4%
Magnus Fredslund4%
Matti Lund Nielsen0%
Marco Ramkilde0%
Adrian Kappenberger0%
Jonas Gemmer0%
Nikolaj Geertsen0%
Mathias Gehrt0%
Filip Đukić0%
Malte Kiilerich0%
Daniel Stenderup0%
Martin Spelmann0%
Matti Olsen0%
Philip Rejnhold0%
Thomas Jorgensen0%
Marcus Lindberg0%
Ahmed Iljazovski0%
Marc Nielsen0%
Mathias Andreasen0%
Magnus Petersen0%
Marius Papuga0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Philip Rejnhold38%
Jonas Gemmer33%
Nikolaj Geertsen30%
Ahmed Iljazovski21%
Martin Spelmann19%
Christian Jakobsen17%
Magnus Fredslund15%
Lirim Qamili14%
Marcus Lindberg14%
Marc Nielsen14%
Matti Olsen14%
Tobias Thomsen13%
Jeffrey Adjei-Broni13%
Malte Kiilerich11%
Filip Đukić8%
Andreas Smed8%
Mathias Andreasen7%
Thomas Jorgensen7%
Simon Makienok5%
Matti Lund Nielsen0%
Marco Ramkilde0%
Adrian Kappenberger0%
Mads Kaalund0%
Mathias Gehrt0%
Daniel Stenderup0%
Magnus Petersen0%
Marius Papuga0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Magnus Fredslund15%
Christian Jakobsen10%
Marc Nielsen10%
Marcus Lindberg7%
Ahmed Iljazovski7%
Tobias Thomsen7%
Simon Makienok5%
Jeffrey Adjei-Broni4%
Andreas Smed4%
Jonas Gemmer4%
Lirim Qamili4%
Matti Lund Nielsen0%
Marco Ramkilde0%
Adrian Kappenberger0%
Nikolaj Geertsen0%
Mads Kaalund0%
Mathias Gehrt0%
Filip Đukić0%
Malte Kiilerich0%
Daniel Stenderup0%
Martin Spelmann0%
Matti Olsen0%
Philip Rejnhold0%
Thomas Jorgensen0%
Mathias Andreasen0%
Magnus Petersen0%
Marius Papuga0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tobias Thomsen27%
Lirim Qamili21%
Andreas Smed8%
Thomas Jorgensen7%
Simon Makienok5%
Magnus Fredslund4%
Martin Spelmann4%
Christian Jakobsen3%
Matti Lund Nielsen0%
Marco Ramkilde0%
Adrian Kappenberger0%
Jonas Gemmer0%
Nikolaj Geertsen0%
Mads Kaalund0%
Mathias Gehrt0%
Filip Đukić0%
Malte Kiilerich0%
Daniel Stenderup0%
Matti Olsen0%
Philip Rejnhold0%
Marcus Lindberg0%
Ahmed Iljazovski0%
Marc Nielsen0%
Mathias Andreasen0%
Magnus Petersen0%
Marius Papuga0%
Jeffrey Adjei-Broni0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Denmark: 1. Division 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vejle
Sonderjyske
Vendsyssel FF
FC Fredericia
HB Koge
FC Helsingor
Hillerød
Hobro
Fremad Amager
Nykobing FC