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Nafta vs Brinje-Grosuplje Result & Analysis

Date: 24/03/2023
Time: 17:00
Final 0-2
Nafta
Nafta
Vs
32%
29%
38%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Brinje-Grosuplje
Brinje-Grosuplje
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The contest between Nafta and Brinje-Grosuplje is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. The predicted probabilities are 32% for a home victory, 29% for a draw and 38% for an away triumph, so the latter is the single most likely outcome. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a modestly scored game, and the most probable scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 14% chance. Nafta, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages one goal scored and two conceded, while Brinje-Grosuplje, on the road, averages 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded against comparable teams. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 with a 75.6% probability and Over 1.5 with 72.7%. These picks are the only non-result choices offered. The match remains uncertain, but the data lean toward a Brinje-Grosuplje victory with a balanced scoreline.

Results analysis

After a rough run of three defeats, Nafta’s home form remained shaky, while Brinje-Grosuplje, fresh from a win, looked poised for a positive away spell. The Pythia model tipped an away win with a 38% probability, and the prediction proved correct as Brinje-Grosuplje secured a 0-2 victory. The model’s other selections also fared well: the Under 3.5 goal market hit, matching the 75.6% chance, and the Over 1.5 goal market also hit, aligning with its 72.7% probability. With the favoured result delivered and the key markets confirmed, the model’s forecast was largely accurate.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nafta win✗ Miss
32.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje win✓ Hit
38.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

NaftaNafta

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-434L11D21W22D24L12L42W02L01L11DA·BEL16/10H·DEK22/10A·DOB30/10H·BIL04/11H·PRI13/11A·KRK19/11H·KRŠ25/11A·ILI02/03H·ROG11/03A·ALU17/03
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.811.521.501.502.091.55
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)1.731.911.002.002.331.83
vs Weaker (10)1.901.102.001.001.801.20
Clean sheet %24% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D20W10W02L13L02L10W20W02L10WA·DEK15/10H·DOB22/10A·BIL29/10H·PRI05/11H·KRK12/11H·ILI27/11A·KRŠ30/11A·ROG04/03H·ALU11/03H·RUD18/03
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.861.380.731.641.001.10
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.801.500.502.001.250.75
vs Weaker (11)0.911.271.001.200.831.33
Clean sheet %29% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.7%
Under 1.5
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.9%
Under 2.5
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.4%
Under 3.5
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.3%
No
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
0-1
9.4%
0-0
9.4%
1-0
8.4%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
7.6%
0-2 ✓
7.0%
2-0
5.8%
Nafta goals ↓
Brinje-Grosuplje goals →
01234
09.4%9.4%7.0%3.1%1.0%
18.4%14%8.4%3.7%1.2%
25.8%7.6%5.0%2.2%0.7%
32.3%3.0%2.0%0.9%0.3%
40.7%0.9%0.6%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nafta goals (down), columns = Brinje-Grosuplje goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rogaška
2.27
Aluminij
2.13
Ilirija
1.80
Krka
1.77
Beltinci
1.47
Primorje
1.37
Nafta
1.37
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.27
Bilje
1.23
Bistrica
1.23
Dekani
1.17
Triglav
1.17
Rudar
1.07
Fužinar
1.03
Krško
0.80
Dob
0.70
Nafta is 0.10 points better than Brinje-Grosuplje in terms of average points per game (1.37 vs 1.27).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Aluminij
1.93
Ilirija
1.83
Rogaška
1.73
Nafta
1.67
Beltinci
1.57
Krka
1.53
Primorje
1.40
Rudar
1.37
Bilje
1.33
Fužinar
1.30
Bistrica
1.30
Dob
1.23
Krško
1.20
Triglav
1.10
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.00
Dekani
0.90
Nafta is 0.67 goals better than Brinje-Grosuplje in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Rogaška
0.77
Aluminij
0.77
Krka
0.93
Dekani
0.97
Ilirija
1.00
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.23
Primorje
1.33
Bistrica
1.33
Nafta
1.43
Beltinci
1.50
Rudar
1.70
Triglav
1.73
Bilje
1.77
Fužinar
1.87
Krško
1.97
Dob
2.10
Nafta is 0.20 goals worse than Brinje-Grosuplje in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 1.23).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

NaftaNafta

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L10W10W22D02L11D11D00D00D11DA·BEL16/10H·DEK22/10A·DOB30/10H·BIL04/11H·PRI13/11A·KRK19/11H·KRŠ25/11A·ILI02/03H·ROG11/03A·ALU17/03
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.860.710.700.701.000.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.730.910.400.801.001.00
vs Weaker (10)1.000.501.000.601.000.40
Clean sheet %52% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W00D01L01L00D00D20W01L10WA·DEK15/10H·DOB22/10A·BIL29/10H·PRI05/11H·KRK12/11H·ILI27/11A·KRŠ30/11A·ROG04/03H·ALU11/03H·RUD18/03
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.810.450.820.400.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.500.900.331.170.750.50
vs Weaker (11)0.360.730.600.400.171.00
Clean sheet %38% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nafta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

NaftaNafta

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-332W01L11D00D22D01L31W02L01L00DA·BEL16/10H·DEK22/10A·DOB30/10H·BIL04/11H·PRI13/11A·KRK19/11H·KRŠ25/11A·ILI02/03H·ROG11/03A·ALU17/03
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.950.810.800.801.090.82
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)1.001.000.601.201.330.83
vs Weaker (10)0.900.601.000.400.800.80
Clean sheet %48% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W10W01L12L02L10W00D01L00DA·DEK15/10H·DOB22/10A·BIL29/10H·PRI05/11H·KRK12/11H·ILI27/11A·KRŠ30/11A·ROG04/03H·ALU11/03H·RUD18/03
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.570.270.820.600.30
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.300.600.170.830.500.25
vs Weaker (11)0.550.550.400.800.670.33
Clean sheet %57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nafta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.572.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Nafta and Brinje-Grosuplje have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (9)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Nafta and Brinje-Grosuplje have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Nafta and Brinje-Grosuplje have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
Nafta and Brinje-Grosuplje have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
NAF wins
0
Draws
0
BRI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Nafta vs Brinje-Grosuplje · H/A from NAF
DateH/AGameScore
09/09/22ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs NAF1-3

NaftaNafta

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/03/23AAluminij Vs NAF1-1
11/03/23HNAF Vs Rogaška0-1
02/03/23AIlirija Vs NAF2-0
25/11/22HNAF Vs Krško4-2
19/11/22AKrka Vs NAF2-1
13/11/22HNAF Vs Primorje2-4
04/11/22HNAF Vs Bilje2-2
30/10/22ADob Vs NAF1-2
22/10/22HNAF Vs Dekani1-1
16/10/22ABeltinci Vs NAF4-3

Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/03/23HBRI Vs Rudar1-0
11/03/23HBRI Vs Aluminij0-2
04/03/23ARogaška Vs BRI0-2
30/11/22AKrško Vs BRI0-1
27/11/22HBRI Vs Ilirija0-2
12/11/22HBRI Vs Krka1-3
05/11/22HBRI Vs Primorje0-2
29/10/22ABilje Vs BRI0-1
22/10/22HBRI Vs Dob2-0
15/10/22ADekani Vs BRI1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Nafta
Nafta
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLD1.38
HomeDDLWL1.20
AwayLWLLD1.55
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%30%45%
AVG goals3.333.003.64
Over 1.5 %90%80%100%
Over 2.5 %67%50%82%
Over 3.5 %38%40%36%
Scored1.811.502.09
Conceded1.521.501.55
BTTS62%50%73%
Clean Sheet24%30%18%
Corners---
Cards---
Brinje-Grosuplje
Brinje-Grosuplje
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLW1.00
HomeLLLLW0.64
AwayLDWWW1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %29%18%40%
AVG goals2.242.362.10
Over 1.5 %71%73%70%
Over 2.5 %24%27%20%
Over 3.5 %19%27%10%
Scored0.860.731.00
Conceded1.381.641.10
BTTS38%36%40%
Clean Sheet29%18%40%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1RogaškaRogaška3068
70%
2.3
5223+29
2.5
67%
40%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.8
-
2AluminijAluminij3064
63%
2.1
5823+35
2.7
70%
50%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.90.8
-
3IlirijaIlirija3054
53%
1.8
5530+25
2.8
77%
50%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.81.0
-
4KrkaKrka3053
47%
1.8
4628+18
2.5
70%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.50.9
-
5BeltinciBeltinci3044
40%
1.5
4745+2
3.1
90%
60%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.5
-
6NaftaNafta3041
37%
1.4
5043+7
3.1
83%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.71.4
-
7PrimorjePrimorje3041
33%
1.4
4240+2
2.7
70%
43%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.3
-
8Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3038
37%
1.3
3037-7
2.2
73%
23%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.2
-
9BistricaBistrica3037
30%
1.2
3940-1
2.6
80%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.3
-
10BiljeBilje3037
33%
1.2
4053-13
3.1
77%
63%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.31.8
-
11DekaniDekani3035
23%
1.2
2729-2
1.9
53%
27%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.0
-
12TriglavTriglav3035
33%
1.2
3352-19
2.8
80%
50%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.7
-
13RudarRudar3032
23%
1.1
4151-10
3.1
83%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.41.7
-
14FužinarFužinar3031
27%
1.0
3956-17
3.2
80%
63%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
15KrškoKrško3024
20%
0.8
3659-23
3.2
80%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.0
-
16DobDob3021
13%
0.7
3763-26
3.3
87%
70%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.1
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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