Nafta vs Maribor Result & Analysis

Maribor edge the match, the model’s pick for an away win. The encounter is expected to produce 2.7 goals on average, with the most likely total of two goals, a 26% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 13.4% probability. Nafta, playing at home against a stronger side, averages only 0.25 goals scored and concedes 1.25. Maribor, on the road to a weaker opponent, scores 1.62 and concedes 0.88 on average. Home win probability sits at 29%, a draw at 28%, and an away win at 43%. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 82.3%, Over 2.5 cards at 77.6%, Under 5.5 cards at 76.9%, Over 1.5 at 75.6% (hit), Under 11.5 corners at 74.0%, and Under 3.5 at 72.3% (hit). Nafta’s recent form shows three straight defeats, while Maribor comes off a two-game winning streak.

The pre-match favourite, Maribor, did not deliver, as the game finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s prediction of an away win incorrect. Nafta’s recent form, after three straight defeats, was still a factor, while Maribor’s two-game winning run had built confidence. The model had given the away side a 43% chance of triumph, but the match settled at a stalemate. The model’s selections also included Over 1.5 goals with a 75.6% probability, which was hit, and Under 3.5 goals at 72.3%, also hit. The most likely total of 2 goals, at 26%, was not achieved, and the most probable scoreline of 1-1, at 13.4%, did occur.