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Naftan vs Baranovichi Result & Analysis

Date: 12/11/2022
Time: 11:00
Final 2-1
Naftan
Naftan
Vs
71%
17%
11%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Baranovichi
Baranovichi
Belarus: 1. Division
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Naftan win✓ Hit
71.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
17.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi win✗ Miss
11.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

NaftanNaftan

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-522D21W50W00D23L11D31W30W10W10WH·LID20/08A·OSI03/09H·ORS11/09A·SMO17/09H·ML 02/10A·OST08/10H·MOL15/10A·VOL22/10H·SLO29/10A·LOK05/11
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.300.782.360.912.250.67
vs Stronger (4)2.501.252.502.502.500.00
vs Similar (13)2.230.851.830.832.570.86
vs Weaker (6)2.330.333.330.001.330.67
Clean sheet %52% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Baranovichi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BaranovichiBaranovichi

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-613L24L24L01L03L02L26L05L00D16LA·ORS20/08H·SMO26/08A·ML 03/09H·OST10/09A·MOL18/09A·VOL02/10H·SLO09/10H·LOK16/10A·SHA30/10H·LID06/11
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
3.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.042.911.003.331.092.45
vs Stronger (2)1.002.500.001.002.004.00
vs Similar (15)0.673.271.003.620.292.86
vs Weaker (6)2.002.171.333.332.671.00
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%4%09%119%221%319%414%515%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.8%
Under 1.5
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
69.1%
Under 2.5
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.7%
Under 3.5
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.4%
No
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
9.5%
2-1 ✓
9.3%
3-0
8.2%
3-1
8.0%
1-1
7.9%
1-0
6.6%
4-0
5.3%
4-1
5.2%
Naftan goals ↓
Baranovichi goals →
01234
03.6%2.1%1.4%0.4%0.1%
16.6%7.9%3.5%1.1%0.3%
29.5%9.3%4.5%1.5%0.4%
38.2%8.0%3.9%1.3%0.3%
45.3%5.2%2.5%0.8%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Naftan goals (down), columns = Baranovichi goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Naftan
2.21
Smorgon
2.17
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.88
ML Vitebsk
1.71
Ostrovets FC
1.67
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.62
Volna
1.50
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.21
Orsha
1.12
Lida
1.08
Slonim
0.75
Osipovichy
0.54
Baranovichi
0.50
Naftan is 1.71 points better than Baranovichi in terms of average points per game (2.21 vs 0.50).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Shakhtyor Petrikov
2.88
Naftan
2.29
Smorgon
1.92
ML Vitebsk
1.88
Volna
1.83
Ostrovets FC
1.75
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.62
Lida
1.46
Orsha
1.38
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.25
Baranovichi
1.04
Slonim
1.00
Osipovichy
0.88
Naftan is 1.25 goals better than Baranovichi in terms of goals scored per game (2.29 vs 1.04).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Naftan
0.79
Shakhtyor Petrikov
0.83
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.00
Smorgon
1.12
ML Vitebsk
1.42
Ostrovets FC
1.42
Volna
1.46
Lida
1.79
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.88
Orsha
2.17
Slonim
2.21
Osipovichy
2.21
Baranovichi
2.88
Naftan is 2.08 goals better than Baranovichi in terms of goals conceded per game (0.79 vs 2.88).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

NaftanNaftan

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D20W30W00D01L00D01L20W00D10WH·LID20/08A·OSI03/09H·ORS11/09A·SMO17/09H·ML 02/10A·OST08/10H·MOL15/10A·VOL22/10H·SLO29/10A·LOK05/11
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.260.450.450.920.08
vs Stronger (4)0.750.250.000.501.500.00
vs Similar (13)0.540.310.330.670.710.00
vs Weaker (6)1.000.171.000.001.000.33
Clean sheet %74% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Baranovichi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BaranovichiBaranovichi

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L03L03L01L00D01L04L02L00D13LA·ORS20/08H·SMO26/08A·ML 03/09H·OST10/09A·MOL18/09A·VOL02/10H·SLO09/10H·LOK16/10A·SHA30/10H·LID06/11
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.301.480.251.830.361.09
vs Stronger (2)0.001.500.000.000.003.00
vs Similar (15)0.271.730.252.250.291.14
vs Weaker (6)0.500.830.331.330.670.33
Clean sheet %35% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Naftan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

NaftanNaftan

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L20W00D22D11D30W10W10W00DH·LID20/08A·OSI03/09H·ORS11/09A·SMO17/09H·ML 02/10A·OST08/10H·MOL15/10A·VOL22/10H·SLO29/10A·LOK05/11
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.610.521.910.451.330.58
vs Stronger (4)1.751.002.502.001.000.00
vs Similar (13)1.690.541.500.171.860.86
vs Weaker (6)1.330.172.330.000.330.33
Clean sheet %70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Baranovichi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BaranovichiBaranovichi

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L21W21W00D03L01L22D03L00D03LA·ORS20/08H·SMO26/08A·ML 03/09H·OST10/09A·MOL18/09A·VOL02/10H·SLO09/10H·LOK16/10A·SHA30/10H·LID06/11
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.741.430.751.500.731.36
vs Stronger (2)1.001.000.001.002.001.00
vs Similar (15)0.401.530.751.380.001.71
vs Weaker (6)1.501.331.002.002.000.67
Clean sheet %22% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Naftan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.8%-------✓ Hit
Home win71.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
BAR (21)
€2m
NAF (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
Naftan and Baranovichi have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
BAR (8)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
Naftan and Baranovichi have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
NAF (9)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
Naftan and Baranovichi have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
BAR (9)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
Naftan and Baranovichi have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
NAF wins
0
Draws
0
BAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Naftan vs Baranovichi · H/A from NAF
DateH/AGameScore
24/07/22ABaranovichi Vs NAF0-4

NaftanNaftan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/11/22ALokomotiv Gomel Vs NAF0-1
29/10/22HNAF Vs Slonim1-0
22/10/22AVolna Vs NAF0-3
15/10/22HNAF Vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 43-1
08/10/22AOstrovets FC Vs NAF1-1
02/10/22HNAF Vs ML Vitebsk2-3
17/09/22ASmorgon Vs NAF0-0
11/09/22HNAF Vs Orsha5-0
03/09/22AOsipovichy Vs NAF1-2
20/08/22HNAF Vs Lida2-2

BaranovichiBaranovichi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/11/22HBAR Vs Lida1-6
30/10/22AShakhtyor Petrikov Vs BAR0-0
16/10/22HBAR Vs Lokomotiv Gomel0-5
09/10/22HBAR Vs Slonim2-6
02/10/22AVolna Vs BAR2-0
18/09/22AMolodechno-DYuSSh 4 Vs BAR3-0
10/09/22HBAR Vs Ostrovets FC0-1
03/09/22AML Vitebsk Vs BAR4-2
26/08/22HBAR Vs Smorgon2-4
20/08/22AOrsha Vs BAR3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Naftan
Naftan
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWW2.17
HomeDWLWW2.09
AwayWDDWW2.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %65%64%67%
AVG goals3.093.272.92
Over 1.5 %78%82%75%
Over 2.5 %61%64%58%
Over 3.5 %43%55%33%
Scored2.302.362.25
Conceded0.780.910.67
BTTS39%45%33%
Clean Sheet52%45%58%
Corners---
Cards---
Baranovichi
Baranovichi
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 0 Wins / 1 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDL0.52
HomeLLLLL0.42
AwayLLLLD0.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %13%8%18%
AVG goals3.964.333.55
Over 1.5 %87%83%91%
Over 2.5 %74%75%73%
Over 3.5 %52%58%45%
Scored1.041.001.09
Conceded2.913.332.45
BTTS43%58%27%
Clean Sheet13%0%27%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1NaftanNaftan2453
67%
2.2
5519+36
3.1
79%
62%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0112.30.8
-
2SmorgonSmorgon2452
67%
2.2
4627+19
3.0
83%
58%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.91.1
-
3Shakhtyor PetrikovShakhtyor Petrikov2445
54%
1.9
6920+49
3.7
79%
71%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.90.8
-
4ML VitebskML Vitebsk2441
50%
1.7
4534+11
3.3
71%
67%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
6351.91.4
-
5Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC2440
46%
1.7
4234+8
3.2
83%
67%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.81.4
-
6Lokomotiv GomelLokomotiv Gomel2439
42%
1.6
3924+15
2.6
71%
54%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
7VolnaVolna2436
42%
1.5
4435+9
3.3
88%
62%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.81.5
-
8Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Molodechno-DYuSSh 42429
29%
1.2
3045-15
3.1
88%
62%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.9
-
9OrshaOrsha2427
29%
1.1
3352-19
3.5
83%
71%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.42.2
-
10LidaLida2426
25%
1.1
3543-8
3.2
83%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.51.8
-
11SlonimSlonim2418
21%
0.8
2453-29
3.2
83%
58%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.02.2
-
12OsipovichyOsipovichy2413
12%
0.5
2153-32
3.1
79%
58%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.92.2
-
13BaranovichiBaranovichi2412
12%
0.5
2569-44
3.9
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.02.9
-
Belarus: 1. Division 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →

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