This opponent (Montpellier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montpellier
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.53
1.79
0.79
1.38
2.19
vs Stronger (13)
1.31
1.69
1.62
0.88
0.80
3.00
vs Similar (14)
1.64
1.50
2.00
1.00
1.50
1.70
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Nantes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.8%
Under 1.5
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.2%
Under 2.5
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.1%
Under 3.5
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.5%
No
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-2
8.6%
0-1
8.1%
2-1
8.0%
0-0
7.8%
1-0 ✓
7.4%
0-2
6.6%
2-2
5.6%
Nantes goals ↓
Montpellier goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.8%
8.1%
6.6%
3.1%
1.1%
1
7.4%
13%
8.6%
4.1%
1.4%
2
5.6%
8.0%
5.6%
2.7%
0.9%
3
2.5%
3.5%
2.5%
1.2%
0.4%
4
0.8%
1.1%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nantes goals (down), columns = Montpellier goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Monaco
2.50
Paris Saint Germain
2.29
Nice
2.05
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.63
Bordeaux
1.55
Nantes
1.34
Saint Etienne
1.32
Guingamp
1.32
Rennes
1.32
Lille
1.21
Angers
1.21
Toulouse
1.16
Metz
1.13
Montpellier
1.03
Caen
0.97
Dijon
0.97
Lorient
0.95
Nancy
0.92
Bastia
0.89
Nantes is 0.32 points better than Montpellier in terms of average points per game (1.34 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Monaco
2.82
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lyon
2.11
Nice
1.66
Marseille
1.50
Bordeaux
1.39
Montpellier
1.26
Guingamp
1.21
Dijon
1.21
Lorient
1.16
Saint Etienne
1.08
Lille
1.05
Nantes
1.05
Angers
1.05
Metz
1.03
Toulouse
0.97
Caen
0.95
Rennes
0.95
Bastia
0.76
Nancy
0.76
Nantes is 0.21 goals worse than Montpellier in terms of goals scored per game (1.05 vs 1.26).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.71
Monaco
0.82
Nice
0.95
Marseille
1.08
Toulouse
1.08
Saint Etienne
1.11
Rennes
1.11
Bordeaux
1.13
Lille
1.24
Lyon
1.26
Angers
1.29
Nancy
1.37
Guingamp
1.39
Nantes
1.42
Bastia
1.50
Dijon
1.53
Caen
1.71
Montpellier
1.74
Lorient
1.84
Metz
1.89
Nantes is 0.32 goals better than Montpellier in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.74).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Nantes
For 3.3 · Against 4.4 · Total 7.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.5 · Against 10.3 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Montpellier
For 4.1 · Against 2.8 · Total 6.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 13.1 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nantes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.8
9.3
3.9
4.1
3.7
27.0
27.9
26.1
vs Stronger (20)
9.1
9.6
8.6
3.2
3.1
3.3
27.4
28.0
26.7
vs Similar (22)
9.4
8.6
10.2
4.9
5.0
4.7
26.6
28.0
25.2
vs Weaker (8)
7.8
6.3
8.6
3.1
4.3
2.4
27.0
27.3
26.8
% over line
42%
42%
42%
54%
54%
54%
78%
83%
73%
% under line
58%
58%
58%
46%
46%
46%
22%
17%
27%
This opponent (Montpellier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montpellier
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
8.4
10.0
3.6
3.6
3.6
25.8
24.7
27.0
vs Stronger (19)
8.8
7.8
9.9
3.0
2.8
3.2
26.7
26.2
27.3
vs Similar (24)
9.6
8.9
10.2
3.7
4.0
3.4
25.9
24.4
27.2
vs Weaker (7)
8.6
8.2
9.0
5.0
4.8
5.3
23.1
22.0
24.7
% over line
38%
24%
52%
46%
44%
48%
74%
60%
88%
% under line
62%
76%
48%
54%
56%
52%
26%
40%
12%
This opponent (Nantes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Monaco
10.3
Dijon
10.3
Saint Etienne
10.3
Caen
10.0
Lorient
9.8
Angers
9.7
Guingamp
9.4
Rennes
9.4
Bordeaux
9.4
Lille
9.3
Metz
9.3
Paris Saint Germain
9.2
Montpellier
9.2
Marseille
9.1
Nantes
9.0
Nice
9.0
Lyon
8.9
Bastia
8.9
Nancy
8.7
Toulouse
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lyon
4.8
Bastia
4.7
Toulouse
4.5
Lille
4.2
Metz
4.1
Nice
4.1
Saint Etienne
4.0
Bordeaux
4.0
Monaco
3.9
Nantes
3.9
Guingamp
3.9
Nancy
3.8
Angers
3.8
Lorient
3.6
Montpellier
3.6
Caen
3.5
Dijon
3.5
Marseille
3.5
Rennes
3.5
Paris Saint Germain
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Lille
30.5
Toulouse
29.1
Guingamp
28.6
Lyon
28.4
Bastia
28.3
Monaco
27.5
Marseille
27.4
Saint Etienne
27.3
Nantes
27.0
Nancy
26.9
Bordeaux
25.9
Montpellier
25.8
Nice
25.8
Dijon
25.7
Metz
25.6
Caen
24.9
Angers
24.6
Lorient
24.2
Rennes
23.8
Paris Saint Germain
22.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
41.3%
Under 9.5
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
48.5%
Under 3.5
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
82.9%
Under 21.5
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nantes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.80
0.27
0.73
0.27
0.87
vs Stronger (14)
0.21
1.07
0.14
0.71
0.29
1.43
vs Similar (12)
0.42
0.50
0.43
0.57
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Montpellier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montpellier
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.63
0.79
0.36
0.81
0.88
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.69
0.50
0.25
0.40
1.40
vs Similar (14)
1.00
0.64
1.25
0.75
0.90
0.60
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Nantes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nantes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nantes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nantes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montpellier over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montpellier over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montpellier over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nantes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.77
0.33
0.67
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (14)
0.21
1.14
0.14
1.00
0.29
1.29
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.50
0.43
0.43
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Montpellier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montpellier
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.90
1.00
0.43
0.56
1.31
vs Stronger (13)
0.85
1.00
1.12
0.62
0.40
1.60
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.86
0.75
0.25
0.60
1.10
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Nantes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nantes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nantes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nantes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montpellier over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montpellier over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montpellier over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Nantes · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Killian Corredor33%
Wilitty Younoussa33%
Bahereba Guirassy25%
Maxime Dupé0%
Frédéric Guilbert0%
Mathieu Cafaro0%
Kelvin Amian0%
Ibrahima Sissoko0%
Lucas Perrin0%
Johann Lepenant0%
Dehmaine Tabibou0%
Louis Leroux0%
Bahmed Deuff0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Wilitty Younoussa33%
Bahmed Deuff33%
Frédéric Guilbert25%
Mathieu Cafaro25%
Maxime Dupé0%
Kelvin Amian0%
Ibrahima Sissoko0%
Lucas Perrin0%
Killian Corredor0%
Johann Lepenant0%
Dehmaine Tabibou0%
Louis Leroux0%
Bahereba Guirassy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Wilitty Younoussa33%
Mathieu Cafaro25%
Lucas Perrin25%
Bahereba Guirassy25%
Maxime Dupé0%
Frédéric Guilbert0%
Kelvin Amian0%
Ibrahima Sissoko0%
Killian Corredor0%
Johann Lepenant0%
Dehmaine Tabibou0%
Louis Leroux0%
Bahmed Deuff0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ibrahima Sissoko50%
Bahereba Guirassy25%
Maxime Dupé0%
Frédéric Guilbert0%
Mathieu Cafaro0%
Kelvin Amian0%
Lucas Perrin0%
Killian Corredor0%
Johann Lepenant0%
Wilitty Younoussa0%
Dehmaine Tabibou0%
Louis Leroux0%
Bahmed Deuff0%
Montpellier · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yael Mouanga33%
Nicolas Pays25%
Yanis Issoufou25%
Julien Laporte0%
Théo Sainte-Luce0%
Daylam Meddah0%
Simon Ngapandouetnbu0%
Nordan Mukiele0%
Naoufel El Hannach0%
Noah Vidal0%
Hichem Abderrebi0%
Laciné Megnan-Pave0%
Daryll Benlahlou0%
Gregory Ayem0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Daylam Meddah67%
Yael Mouanga67%
Naoufel El Hannach33%
Gregory Ayem33%
Théo Sainte-Luce25%
Nordan Mukiele25%
Laciné Megnan-Pave25%
Julien Laporte0%
Simon Ngapandouetnbu0%
Nicolas Pays0%
Yanis Issoufou0%
Noah Vidal0%
Hichem Abderrebi0%
Daryll Benlahlou0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Théo Sainte-Luce25%
Laciné Megnan-Pave25%
Julien Laporte0%
Daylam Meddah0%
Simon Ngapandouetnbu0%
Nicolas Pays0%
Yael Mouanga0%
Yanis Issoufou0%
Nordan Mukiele0%
Naoufel El Hannach0%
Noah Vidal0%
Hichem Abderrebi0%
Daryll Benlahlou0%
Gregory Ayem0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Laciné Megnan-Pave50%
Julien Laporte0%
Théo Sainte-Luce0%
Daylam Meddah0%
Simon Ngapandouetnbu0%
Nicolas Pays0%
Yael Mouanga0%
Yanis Issoufou0%
Nordan Mukiele0%
Naoufel El Hannach0%
Noah Vidal0%
Hichem Abderrebi0%
Daryll Benlahlou0%
Gregory Ayem0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
SE (30)
€93m
LOR (24)
€87m
NAN (25)
€82m
ANG (23)
€73m
MET (26)
€43m
MON (24)
€29m
NAN (26)
€13m
GUI (20)
€11m
BAS (19)
€7m
DIJ (20)
€5m
CAE (18)
€4m
Nantes's squad is €53m more valuable than Montpellier's (€82m vs €29m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
SE (10)
€54m
NAN (8)
€31m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
LOR (8)
€20m
MET (11)
€17m
MON (9)
€11m
NAN (9)
€5m
BAS (9)
€4m
GUI (4)
€3m
CAE (8)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€1m
Nantes's attack is €20m more valuable than Montpellier's (€31m vs €11m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
MET (5)
€18m
NAN (7)
€16m
ANG (3)
€11m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
GUI (8)
€4m
NAN (6)
€2m
DIJ (6)
€2m
BAS (3)
€1m
CAE (4)
€1m
Nantes's midfield is €11m more valuable than Montpellier's (€16m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
NAN (10)
€34m
ANG (11)
€32m
SE (13)
€28m
MON (10)
€12m
MET (10)
€8m
NAN (11)
€6m
GUI (8)
€3m
BAS (7)
€2m
CAE (6)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€2m
Nantes's defence is €22m more valuable than Montpellier's (€34m vs €12m).
France: Ligue 1 2016/17 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Monaco
Paris Saint Germain
Nice
Lyon
Marseille
Bordeaux
Saint Etienne
Rennes
Guingamp
Lille
Angers
Toulouse
Metz
Dijon
Caen
Lorient
Nancy
Bastia