This opponent (Montpellier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montpellier
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.23
1.60
1.20
0.93
1.27
vs Stronger (16)
1.25
1.31
1.50
1.12
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (10)
1.30
1.20
1.71
1.29
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
1.00
-
-
1.25
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Nantes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.3%
Under 1.5
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.8%
@ 2.38+2.9%
Under 2.5
57.2%
@ 1.58-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.0%
Under 3.5
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.8%
No
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0 ✓
11.4%
0-0
10.4%
2-1
8.8%
2-0
8.8%
0-1
7.9%
1-2
6.4%
0-2
4.6%
Nantes goals ↓
Montpellier goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
7.9%
4.6%
1.5%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.4%
2.1%
0.5%
2
8.8%
8.8%
4.4%
1.5%
0.4%
3
4.1%
4.1%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.4%
1.4%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nantes goals (down), columns = Montpellier goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.52
Marseille
2.00
Rennes
1.79
Lille
1.75
Nice
1.46
Reims
1.46
Lyon
1.43
Montpellier
1.43
Monaco
1.43
Strasbourg
1.41
Angers
1.39
Nantes
1.32
Bordeaux
1.32
Stade Brestois 29
1.21
Metz
1.21
Saint Etienne
1.07
Dijon
1.07
Nimes
0.96
Amiens
0.82
Toulouse
0.46
Nantes is 0.11 points worse than Montpellier in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 1.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.78
Monaco
1.57
Lyon
1.50
Nice
1.46
Marseille
1.46
Bordeaux
1.43
Rennes
1.36
Lille
1.25
Montpellier
1.25
Stade Brestois 29
1.21
Strasbourg
1.19
Amiens
1.11
Saint Etienne
1.04
Nimes
1.04
Nantes
1.00
Angers
1.00
Dijon
0.96
Metz
0.96
Reims
0.93
Toulouse
0.79
Nantes is 0.25 goals worse than Montpellier in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Reims
0.75
Rennes
0.86
Paris Saint Germain
0.89
Lille
0.96
Lyon
0.96
Marseille
1.04
Nantes
1.11
Angers
1.18
Strasbourg
1.19
Bordeaux
1.21
Montpellier
1.21
Metz
1.25
Stade Brestois 29
1.32
Dijon
1.32
Nice
1.36
Nimes
1.57
Monaco
1.57
Saint Etienne
1.61
Amiens
1.79
Toulouse
2.07
Nantes is 0.11 goals better than Montpellier in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.21).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Nantes
For 4.6 · Against 3.6 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 12.6 · Total 25.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Montpellier
For 6.1 · Against 3.6 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 3.0 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 14.8 · Total 29.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nantes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
10.0
9.2
4.0
3.8
4.2
25.9
25.3
26.5
vs Stronger (22)
10.3
10.6
10.0
4.4
3.6
5.2
26.1
25.9
26.4
vs Similar (19)
9.1
9.9
8.3
3.9
4.2
3.6
25.2
24.9
25.5
vs Weaker (9)
9.1
8.8
9.5
3.1
3.2
3.0
26.8
24.8
29.2
% over line
50%
56%
44%
48%
48%
48%
84%
84%
84%
% under line
50%
44%
56%
52%
52%
52%
16%
16%
16%
This opponent (Montpellier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montpellier
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
8.8
9.5
3.6
3.9
3.2
27.2
27.3
27.0
vs Stronger (21)
9.7
9.8
9.6
3.9
5.1
2.7
26.7
29.7
24.0
vs Similar (20)
9.1
9.0
9.2
3.1
2.3
4.0
25.8
24.7
26.9
vs Weaker (9)
8.1
6.6
10.0
3.8
4.8
2.5
31.3
27.8
35.8
% over line
40%
36%
44%
44%
52%
36%
88%
84%
92%
% under line
60%
64%
56%
56%
48%
64%
12%
16%
8%
This opponent (Nantes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Paris Saint Germain
10.5
Saint Etienne
10.4
Stade Brestois 29
10.4
Lyon
10.2
Marseille
10.2
Dijon
10.0
Reims
9.9
Nice
9.8
Monaco
9.8
Nantes
9.6
Bordeaux
9.5
Rennes
9.5
Toulouse
9.4
Nimes
9.3
Montpellier
9.2
Metz
9.0
Amiens
9.0
Angers
8.9
Lille
8.9
Strasbourg
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Nimes
4.5
Rennes
4.4
Monaco
4.3
Nice
4.1
Nantes
4.0
Marseille
4.0
Toulouse
3.9
Strasbourg
3.9
Lille
3.8
Bordeaux
3.8
Lyon
3.7
Saint Etienne
3.7
Montpellier
3.6
Metz
3.5
Stade Brestois 29
3.5
Dijon
3.5
Amiens
3.4
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.2
Reims
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Monaco
27.6
Bordeaux
27.3
Reims
27.2
Montpellier
27.2
Toulouse
26.9
Amiens
26.9
Nimes
26.7
Dijon
26.6
Stade Brestois 29
26.5
Rennes
26.4
Nantes
25.9
Lille
25.7
Marseille
25.6
Strasbourg
25.6
Metz
25.5
Nice
25.3
Lyon
24.8
Paris Saint Germain
24.3
Saint Etienne
24.2
Angers
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
49.4%
Under 9.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
51.0%
Under 3.5
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
83.6%
Under 21.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nantes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.33
0.53
0.40
0.27
0.27
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
0.69
0.71
0.71
0.50
0.67
vs Similar (12)
0.17
0.08
0.20
0.20
0.14
0.00
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Montpellier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montpellier
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.50
0.47
0.47
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (16)
0.44
0.69
0.38
0.62
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.20
0.57
0.29
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Nantes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nantes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nantes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nantes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montpellier over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montpellier over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montpellier over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nantes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.80
1.33
0.80
0.33
0.80
vs Stronger (13)
0.54
0.62
0.71
0.71
0.33
0.50
vs Similar (12)
1.08
0.92
2.20
0.60
0.29
1.14
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
1.00
1.33
1.33
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Montpellier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montpellier
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.73
1.13
0.73
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (16)
0.81
0.62
1.12
0.50
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (10)
0.90
1.00
1.14
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.50
-
-
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Nantes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nantes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nantes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nantes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montpellier over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montpellier over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montpellier over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Nantes · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Killian Corredor33%
Wilitty Younoussa33%
Bahereba Guirassy25%
Maxime Dupé0%
Frédéric Guilbert0%
Mathieu Cafaro0%
Kelvin Amian0%
Ibrahima Sissoko0%
Lucas Perrin0%
Johann Lepenant0%
Dehmaine Tabibou0%
Louis Leroux0%
Bahmed Deuff0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Wilitty Younoussa33%
Bahmed Deuff33%
Frédéric Guilbert25%
Mathieu Cafaro25%
Maxime Dupé0%
Kelvin Amian0%
Ibrahima Sissoko0%
Lucas Perrin0%
Killian Corredor0%
Johann Lepenant0%
Dehmaine Tabibou0%
Louis Leroux0%
Bahereba Guirassy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Wilitty Younoussa33%
Mathieu Cafaro25%
Lucas Perrin25%
Bahereba Guirassy25%
Maxime Dupé0%
Frédéric Guilbert0%
Kelvin Amian0%
Ibrahima Sissoko0%
Killian Corredor0%
Johann Lepenant0%
Dehmaine Tabibou0%
Louis Leroux0%
Bahmed Deuff0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ibrahima Sissoko50%
Bahereba Guirassy25%
Maxime Dupé0%
Frédéric Guilbert0%
Mathieu Cafaro0%
Kelvin Amian0%
Lucas Perrin0%
Killian Corredor0%
Johann Lepenant0%
Wilitty Younoussa0%
Dehmaine Tabibou0%
Louis Leroux0%
Bahmed Deuff0%
Montpellier · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yael Mouanga33%
Nicolas Pays25%
Yanis Issoufou25%
Julien Laporte0%
Théo Sainte-Luce0%
Daylam Meddah0%
Simon Ngapandouetnbu0%
Nordan Mukiele0%
Naoufel El Hannach0%
Noah Vidal0%
Hichem Abderrebi0%
Laciné Megnan-Pave0%
Daryll Benlahlou0%
Gregory Ayem0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Daylam Meddah67%
Yael Mouanga67%
Naoufel El Hannach33%
Gregory Ayem33%
Théo Sainte-Luce25%
Nordan Mukiele25%
Laciné Megnan-Pave25%
Julien Laporte0%
Simon Ngapandouetnbu0%
Nicolas Pays0%
Yanis Issoufou0%
Noah Vidal0%
Hichem Abderrebi0%
Daryll Benlahlou0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Théo Sainte-Luce25%
Laciné Megnan-Pave25%
Julien Laporte0%
Daylam Meddah0%
Simon Ngapandouetnbu0%
Nicolas Pays0%
Yael Mouanga0%
Yanis Issoufou0%
Nordan Mukiele0%
Naoufel El Hannach0%
Noah Vidal0%
Hichem Abderrebi0%
Daryll Benlahlou0%
Gregory Ayem0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Laciné Megnan-Pave50%
Julien Laporte0%
Théo Sainte-Luce0%
Daylam Meddah0%
Simon Ngapandouetnbu0%
Nicolas Pays0%
Yael Mouanga0%
Yanis Issoufou0%
Nordan Mukiele0%
Naoufel El Hannach0%
Noah Vidal0%
Hichem Abderrebi0%
Daryll Benlahlou0%
Gregory Ayem0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
SE (30)
€93m
NAN (25)
€82m
ANG (23)
€73m
REI (30)
€72m
SB2 (20)
€64m
MET (26)
€43m
MON (24)
€29m
DIJ (20)
€5m
AMI (14)
€4m
Nantes's squad is €53m more valuable than Montpellier's (€82m vs €29m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
SE (10)
€54m
REI (12)
€38m
NAN (8)
€31m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
MET (11)
€17m
MON (9)
€11m
DIJ (7)
€1m
AMI (4)
€0m
Nantes's attack is €20m more valuable than Montpellier's (€31m vs €11m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
NIC (9)
€31m
SB2 (6)
€20m
MET (5)
€18m
NAN (7)
€16m
REI (6)
€13m
ANG (3)
€11m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
DIJ (6)
€2m
AMI (2)
€0m
Nantes's midfield is €11m more valuable than Montpellier's (€16m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
NAN (10)
€34m
ANG (11)
€32m
SE (13)
€28m
REI (12)
€21m
SB2 (8)
€19m
MON (10)
€12m
MET (10)
€8m
AMI (8)
€4m
DIJ (7)
€2m
Nantes's defence is €22m more valuable than Montpellier's (€34m vs €12m).
France: Ligue 1 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Paris Saint Germain
Marseille
Rennes
Lille
Reims
Nice
Lyon
Monaco
Angers
Strasbourg
Bordeaux
Stade Brestois 29
Metz
Dijon
Saint Etienne
Nimes
Amiens
Toulouse