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Naxxar Lions vs Marsaxlokk Result & Analysis

Date: 27/10/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 0-0
Naxxar Lions
Naxxar Lions
Vs
16%
25%
59%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Naxxar Lions win✗ Miss
16.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk win✗ Miss
58.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-640W02L12L21W02L02L33D06L00D11DH·VAL28/04A·MOS03/05H·HIB17/08H·MOS23/08A·BAL29/08H·FLO16/09A·ZAB22/09H·HAM27/09H·MEL03/10H·GZI20/10
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.400.881.411.381.38
vs Stronger (7)0.432.860.253.750.671.67
vs Similar (21)1.140.901.000.671.331.22
vs Weaker (2)3.001.502.001.004.002.00
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D12L01L12L02L01L24L21W31W11DA·PAR11/07H·PAR18/07H·GZI18/08H·MEL24/08H·BIR29/08H·SLI15/09H·MOS23/09H·BAL28/09A·ZAB02/10H·FLO21/10
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.070.941.281.830.75
vs Stronger (7)1.001.290.601.002.002.00
vs Similar (22)1.361.001.001.421.800.50
vs Weaker (1)2.001.002.001.00--
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%017%126%222%314%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.1%
Under 1.5
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.2%
Under 2.5
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.3%
Under 3.5
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.6%
No
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%
0-1
11.7%
0-2
11.5%
1-2
9.7%
0-0 ✓
8.2%
0-3
6.9%
1-3
5.8%
1-0
4.9%
Naxxar Lions goals ↓
Marsaxlokk goals →
01234
08.2%12%12%6.9%3.1%
14.9%12%9.7%5.8%2.6%
22.5%4.6%4.1%2.5%1.1%
30.7%1.3%1.2%0.7%0.3%
40.2%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Naxxar Lions goals (down), columns = Marsaxlokk goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
1.94
Birkirkara
1.74
Sliema Wanderers
1.71
Hamrun Spartans
1.65
Hibernians
1.53
Marsaxlokk
1.47
Gzira United
1.31
Mosta
1.19
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.12
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Balzan FC
0.91
Melita
0.88
Naxxar Lions is 0.41 points worse than Marsaxlokk in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 1.47).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Floriana
1.53
Sliema Wanderers
1.47
Marsaxlokk
1.47
Hamrun Spartans
1.44
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.41
Birkirkara
1.35
Hibernians
1.34
Melita
1.15
Mosta
1.09
Balzan FC
1.06
Gzira United
1.06
Naxxar Lions
0.94
Naxxar Lions is 0.53 goals worse than Marsaxlokk in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.47).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Floriana
0.68
Hamrun Spartans
0.82
Birkirkara
0.85
Sliema Wanderers
0.94
Marsaxlokk
1.22
Hibernians
1.25
Gzira United
1.31
Balzan FC
1.56
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.56
Mosta
1.66
Naxxar Lions
1.67
Melita
1.91
Naxxar Lions is 0.45 goals worse than Marsaxlokk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.22).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W01L11D10W02L00D11D04L00D10WH·VAL28/04A·MOS03/05H·HIB17/08H·MOS23/08A·BAL29/08H·FLO16/09A·ZAB22/09H·HAM27/09H·MEL03/10H·GZI20/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.670.470.590.770.77
vs Stronger (7)0.291.570.002.000.671.00
vs Similar (21)0.570.330.580.080.560.67
vs Weaker (2)2.001.001.001.003.001.00
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D00D01L01L01L21W11D21W10WA·PAR11/07H·PAR18/07H·GZI18/08H·MEL24/08H·BIR29/08H·SLI15/09H·MOS23/09H·BAL28/09A·ZAB02/10H·FLO21/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.430.500.560.750.25
vs Stronger (7)0.430.430.400.600.500.00
vs Similar (22)0.640.450.500.580.800.30
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Naxxar Lions over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L01L11D00D02L22D02L00D01LH·VAL28/04A·MOS03/05H·HIB17/08H·MOS23/08A·BAL29/08H·FLO16/09A·ZAB22/09H·HAM27/09H·MEL03/10H·GZI20/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.730.410.820.620.62
vs Stronger (7)0.141.290.251.750.000.67
vs Similar (21)0.570.570.420.580.780.56
vs Weaker (2)1.000.501.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D12L01L11D01L00D03L10W10W01LA·PAR11/07H·PAR18/07H·GZI18/08H·MEL24/08H·BIR29/08H·SLI15/09H·MOS23/09H·BAL28/09A·ZAB02/10H·FLO21/10
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.630.440.721.080.50
vs Stronger (7)0.570.860.200.401.502.00
vs Similar (22)0.730.550.500.831.000.20
vs Weaker (1)1.001.001.001.00--
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Naxxar Lions over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.1%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.572.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
NL (16)
€1m
Naxxar Lions's squad is €2m less valuable than Marsaxlokk's (€1m vs €4m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
Naxxar Lions and Marsaxlokk have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
Naxxar Lions's midfield is €1m less valuable than Marsaxlokk's (€0m vs €2m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Naxxar Lions and Marsaxlokk have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
NL wins
1
Draws
1
MAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Naxxar Lions vs Marsaxlokk · H/A from NL
DateH/AGameScore
28/01/24HNL Vs Marsaxlokk0-0
15/09/23AMarsaxlokk Vs NL5-1

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/10/24HNL Vs Gzira United1-1
03/10/24HNL Vs Melita0-0
27/09/24HNL Vs Hamrun Spartans0-6
22/09/24AZabbar St. Patrick Vs NL3-3
16/09/24HNL Vs Floriana0-2
29/08/24ABalzan FC Vs NL2-0
23/08/24HNL Vs Mosta2-1
17/08/24HNL Vs Hibernians1-2
03/05/24AMosta Vs NL2-0
28/04/24HNL Vs Valletta FC4-0

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/10/24HMAR Vs Floriana1-1
02/10/24AZabbar St. Patrick Vs MAR1-3
28/09/24HMAR Vs Balzan FC2-1
23/09/24HMAR Vs Mosta2-4
15/09/24HMAR Vs Sliema Wanderers0-1
29/08/24HMAR Vs Birkirkara0-2
24/08/24HMAR Vs Melita1-2
18/08/24HMAR Vs Gzira United0-1
18/07/24HMAR Vs Partizani1-2
11/07/24APartizani Vs MAR1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Naxxar Lions
Naxxar Lions
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLDD1.50
HomeWLLDD1.26
AwayWDLLD1.78
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%33%52%
AVG goals2.922.633.26
Over 1.5 %84%78%91%
Over 2.5 %58%56%61%
Over 3.5 %32%30%35%
Scored1.501.111.96
Conceded1.421.521.30
BTTS46%37%57%
Clean Sheet34%37%30%
Corners---
Cards---
Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWD1.24
HomeLLLWD0.86
AwayWWWDW1.73
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%21%45%
AVG goals2.542.542.55
Over 1.5 %74%71%77%
Over 2.5 %46%50%41%
Over 3.5 %20%14%27%
Scored1.301.071.59
Conceded1.241.460.95
BTTS60%61%59%
Clean Sheet24%11%41%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana3466
53%
1.9
5223+29
2.2
74%
41%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.50.7
-
2BirkirkaraBirkirkara3459
50%
1.7
4629+17
2.2
65%
26%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.40.9
-
3Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers3458
50%
1.7
5032+18
2.4
62%
41%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.50.9
-
4Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans3456
47%
1.6
4928+21
2.3
62%
38%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.40.8
-
5HiberniansHibernians3249
44%
1.5
4340+3
2.6
81%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.31.2
-
6MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk3247
41%
1.5
4739+8
2.7
72%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.51.2
-
7Gzira UnitedGzira United3242
34%
1.3
3442-8
2.4
69%
50%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.3
-
8MostaMosta3238
38%
1.2
3553-18
2.8
75%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.7
-
9Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick3236
31%
1.1
4550-5
3.0
84%
66%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.41.6
-
10Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions3335
27%
1.1
3155-24
2.6
76%
45%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.7
-
11Balzan FCBalzan FC3229
19%
0.9
3450-16
2.6
78%
53%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.6
-
12MelitaMelita3329
21%
0.9
3863-25
3.1
88%
55%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
Malta: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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