PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Naxxar Lions vs Mosta Result & Analysis

Date: 10/05/2026
Time: 09:00
Final 0-1
Naxxar Lions
Naxxar Lions
Vs
57%
25%
18%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mosta
Mosta
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Odd / Even7 Home & Away Over/Under8 Handicap9 Top picks for this game10 Squad value11 Games History12 Overall Statistics13 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Naxxar Lions a 57% win probability against Mosta in the Malta: Premier League on 2026-05-10, with 25% for the draw and 18% for Mosta. The model estimates around 2.7 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (25%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (12.0%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (77%), Under 3.5 (71%).

Results analysis

Naxxar Lions finished 0-1 against Mosta (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 57% home win, 25% draw and 18% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (71%). Missed: Over 1.5 (77%).

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Naxxar Lions win✗ Miss
56.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mosta win✓ Hit
18.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-442W21W00D11D21W01L11D03L00D23LH·GZI17/02A·TAR21/02H·BIR01/03A·MAR08/03H·HIB14/03H·FLO11/04H·VAL15/04A·HAM19/04A·GZI26/04A·MAR02/05
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.571.581.001.171.94
vs Stronger (7)1.001.860.671.001.252.50
vs Similar (23)1.431.481.891.001.141.79
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MostaMosta

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L01L12L35L21W22D21W22D02L11DH·TAR18/02A·GZI22/02H·MAR28/02A·ZAB07/03H·HAM15/03A·TAR11/04H·ZAB15/04H·SLI19/04A·HIB24/04A·BIR30/04
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.831.311.690.792.00
vs Stronger (8)0.752.250.802.000.672.67
vs Similar (22)1.181.681.551.550.821.82
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%016%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.9%
Under 1.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.6%
Under 2.5
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.4%
Under 3.5
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.8%
No
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
1-0
10.6%
2-0
10.6%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.6%
3-0
6.4%
3-1
5.9%
1-2
5.1%
Naxxar Lions goals ↓
Mosta goals →
01234
07.6%4.9%2.8%0.9%0.2%
111%12%5.1%1.6%0.4%
211%9.8%4.6%1.4%0.3%
36.4%5.9%2.8%0.9%0.2%
42.9%2.7%1.2%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Naxxar Lions goals (down), columns = Mosta goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.91
Marsaxlokk
1.74
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.00
Mosta
0.88
Tarxien Rainbows
0.74
Naxxar Lions is 0.18 points better than Mosta in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 0.88).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Marsaxlokk
1.32
Naxxar Lions
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Tarxien Rainbows
1.03
Birkirkara
0.91
Naxxar Lions is 0.18 goals better than Mosta in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.06).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.68
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Gzira United
1.34
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.38
Hibernians
1.53
Naxxar Lions
1.58
Mosta
1.76
Tarxien Rainbows
1.82
Naxxar Lions is 0.18 goals better than Mosta in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 1.76).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸ”Ē 6. Odd / Even

ðŸĨ… 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 8. Handicap

ðŸ”Ĩ 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.9%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.570.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
BIR (12)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
HS (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
FLO (6)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
FLO (9)
€2m
HS (6)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Naxxar Lions vs Mosta · H/A from NL
DateH/AGameScore
04/02/26HNL Vs Mosta5-0
19/12/25AMosta Vs NL2-3
29/10/25AMosta Vs NL3-0
02/02/25AMosta Vs NL1-0
23/08/24HNL Vs Mosta2-1
03/05/24AMosta Vs NL2-0
20/01/24HNL Vs Mosta0-0

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/05/26AMarsaxlokk Vs NL3-2
26/04/26AGzira United Vs NL0-0
19/04/26AHamrun Spartans Vs NL3-0
15/04/26HNL Vs Valletta FC1-1
11/04/26HNL Vs Floriana0-1
14/03/26HNL Vs Hibernians2-1
08/03/26AMarsaxlokk Vs NL1-1
01/03/26HNL Vs Birkirkara0-0
21/02/26ATarxien Rainbows Vs NL1-2
17/02/26HNL Vs Gzira United4-2

MostaMosta

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/04/26ABirkirkara Vs MOS1-1
24/04/26AHibernians Vs MOS2-0
19/04/26HMOS Vs Sliema Wanderers2-2
15/04/26HMOS Vs Zabbar St. Patrick2-1
11/04/26ATarxien Rainbows Vs MOS2-2
15/03/26HMOS Vs Hamrun Spartans2-1
07/03/26AZabbar St. Patrick Vs MOS5-3
28/02/26HMOS Vs Marsaxlokk1-2
22/02/26AGzira United Vs MOS1-0
18/02/26HMOS Vs Tarxien Rainbows0-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Naxxar Lions
Naxxar Lions
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLDL1.16
HomeWDWLD1.53
AwayWDLDL0.94
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%42%26%
AVG goals2.802.473.00
Over 1.5 %76%68%81%
Over 2.5 %52%42%58%
Over 3.5 %32%21%39%
Scored1.201.371.10
Conceded1.601.111.90
BTTS50%53%48%
Clean Sheet20%26%16%
Corners---
Cards---
Mosta
Mosta
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDLD0.96
HomeLLWWD1.12
AwayLLDLD0.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%29%23%
AVG goals2.822.792.85
Over 1.5 %74%71%77%
Over 2.5 %52%54%50%
Over 3.5 %32%33%31%
Scored1.041.170.92
Conceded1.781.621.92
BTTS48%50%46%
Clean Sheet16%21%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana3474
65%
2.2
5328+25
2.4
71%
47%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.60.8
-
2Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans3465
56%
1.9
5523+32
2.3
74%
35%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.60.7
-
3MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk3459
50%
1.7
4539+6
2.5
76%
53%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
-
4Valletta FCValletta FC3454
41%
1.6
4126+15
2.0
62%
26%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.20.8
-
5Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers3248
38%
1.5
3736+1
2.3
72%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.1
-
6Gzira UnitedGzira United3243
38%
1.3
3843-5
2.5
72%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
7HiberniansHibernians3239
31%
1.2
4549-4
2.9
78%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.41.5
-
8BirkirkaraBirkirkara3235
25%
1.1
2936-7
2.0
62%
34%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2110.91.1
-
9Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions3335
27%
1.1
4152-11
2.8
76%
55%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
10Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick3434
21%
1.0
4547-2
2.7
82%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
11MostaMosta3329
21%
0.9
3558-23
2.8
70%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
-
12Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows3425
15%
0.7
3562-27
2.9
79%
56%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
Malta: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

← all matches