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Naxxar Lions vs Tarxien Rainbows Result & Analysis

Date: 11/01/2026
Time: 13:00
Final 1-0
Naxxar Lions
Naxxar Lions
Vs
32%
28%
40%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tarxien Rainbows
Tarxien Rainbows
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Naxxar Lions win✓ Hit
32.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tarxien Rainbows win✗ Miss
39.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L40W01L11D03L12L11D13L32W21WA·BIR24/09A·SLI28/09H·VAL05/10H·HAM26/10A·MOS29/10A·GZI03/11A·HIB25/11A·GZI11/12A·MOS19/12A·ZAB08/01
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.471.001.401.251.50
vs Stronger (4)1.502.001.002.002.002.00
vs Similar (26)1.121.381.001.251.171.44
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Tarxien Rainbows) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L12L02L13L04L01L22D01L12L22DH·HIB23/09H·VAL28/09H·MAR02/10A·GZI24/10H·BIR28/10H·MOS02/11A·ZAB24/11A·HIB12/12A·GZI19/12A·MOS08/01
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.400.801.401.331.40
vs Stronger (3)0.331.000.501.000.001.00
vs Similar (23)1.131.570.831.501.451.64
vs Weaker (4)1.250.751.001.001.330.67
Clean sheet %17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.5%
Under 1.5
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.9%
Under 2.5
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.8%
Under 3.5
71.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.1%
No
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-2
8.7%
0-1
8.3%
0-0
7.9%
2-1
7.8%
1-0 ✓
7.3%
0-2
6.8%
2-2
5.6%
Naxxar Lions goals ↓
Tarxien Rainbows goals →
01234
07.9%8.3%6.8%3.3%1.2%
17.3%13%8.7%4.2%1.5%
25.4%7.8%5.6%2.7%1.0%
32.3%3.3%2.4%1.1%0.4%
40.7%1.1%0.8%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Naxxar Lions goals (down), columns = Tarxien Rainbows goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Tarxien Rainbows
0.71
Naxxar Lions is 0.35 points better than Tarxien Rainbows in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 0.71).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Naxxar Lions
1.24
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Tarxien Rainbows
0.97
Birkirkara
0.91
Naxxar Lions is 0.27 goals better than Tarxien Rainbows in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 0.97).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Naxxar Lions
1.58
Tarxien Rainbows
1.74
Mosta
1.76
Naxxar Lions is 0.16 goals better than Tarxien Rainbows in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 1.74).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L30W01L11D00D12L00D01L11D20WA·BIR24/09A·SLI28/09H·VAL05/10H·HAM26/10A·MOS29/10A·GZI03/11A·HIB25/11A·GZI11/12A·MOS19/12A·ZAB08/01
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.830.600.700.700.90
vs Stronger (4)1.001.500.501.501.501.50
vs Similar (26)0.620.730.620.500.610.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Tarxien Rainbows) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L11D00D02L02L00D01L00D10W12LH·HIB23/09H·VAL28/09H·MAR02/10A·GZI24/10H·BIR28/10H·MOS02/11A·ZAB24/11A·HIB12/12A·GZI19/12A·MOS08/01
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.630.200.600.670.67
vs Stronger (3)0.330.670.500.500.001.00
vs Similar (23)0.390.700.170.580.640.82
vs Weaker (4)0.750.250.001.001.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Naxxar Lions over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarxien Rainbows over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarxien Rainbows over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarxien Rainbows over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W00D00D03L00D11D12L21W01LA·BIR24/09A·SLI28/09H·VAL05/10H·HAM26/10A·MOS29/10A·GZI03/11A·HIB25/11A·GZI11/12A·MOS19/12A·ZAB08/01
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.630.400.700.550.60
vs Stronger (4)0.500.500.500.500.500.50
vs Similar (26)0.500.650.380.750.560.61
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Tarxien Rainbows) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L02L11D02L01L21W01L02L10WH·HIB23/09H·VAL28/09H·MAR02/10A·GZI24/10H·BIR28/10H·MOS02/11A·ZAB24/11A·HIB12/12A·GZI19/12A·MOS08/01
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.770.600.800.670.73
vs Stronger (3)0.000.330.000.500.000.00
vs Similar (23)0.740.870.670.920.820.82
vs Weaker (4)0.500.501.000.000.330.67
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Naxxar Lions over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarxien Rainbows over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarxien Rainbows over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarxien Rainbows over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.5%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.571.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
NL (16)
€1m
TR (8)
€1m
Naxxar Lions and Tarxien Rainbows have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Naxxar Lions and Tarxien Rainbows have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Naxxar Lions and Tarxien Rainbows have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
TR (4)
€0m
Naxxar Lions and Tarxien Rainbows have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
2
NL wins
1
Draws
1
TR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Naxxar Lions vs Tarxien Rainbows · H/A from NL
DateH/AGameScore
16/09/25HNL Vs Tarxien Rainbows2-3
31/03/23HNL Vs Tarxien Rainbows2-1
29/01/23ATarxien Rainbows Vs NL0-3
10/09/22ATarxien Rainbows Vs NL1-1

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/01/26AZabbar St. Patrick Vs NL1-2
19/12/25AMosta Vs NL2-3
11/12/25AGzira United Vs NL3-1
25/11/25AHibernians Vs NL1-1
03/11/25AGzira United Vs NL2-1
29/10/25AMosta Vs NL3-0
26/10/25HNL Vs Hamrun Spartans1-1
05/10/25HNL Vs Valletta FC0-1
28/09/25ASliema Wanderers Vs NL0-4
24/09/25ABirkirkara Vs NL1-0

Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/01/26AMosta Vs TR2-2
19/12/25AGzira United Vs TR2-1
12/12/25AHibernians Vs TR1-0
24/11/25AZabbar St. Patrick Vs TR2-2
02/11/25HTR Vs Mosta0-1
28/10/25HTR Vs Birkirkara0-4
24/10/25AGzira United Vs TR3-1
02/10/25HTR Vs Marsaxlokk0-2
28/09/25HTR Vs Valletta FC1-2
23/09/25HTR Vs Hibernians1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Naxxar Lions
Naxxar Lions
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLWW1.00
HomeLLLLD1.00
AwayLDLWW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%25%27%
AVG goals2.682.502.80
Over 1.5 %78%75%80%
Over 2.5 %48%50%47%
Over 3.5 %26%20%30%
Scored1.040.901.13
Conceded1.641.601.67
BTTS42%40%43%
Clean Sheet20%25%17%
Corners---
Cards---
Tarxien Rainbows
Tarxien Rainbows
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 0 Wins / 2 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLD1.30
HomeLLLLL1.20
AwayLDLLD1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%28%40%
AVG goals2.502.202.80
Over 1.5 %70%68%72%
Over 2.5 %48%36%60%
Over 3.5 %30%24%36%
Scored1.241.001.48
Conceded1.261.201.32
BTTS52%48%56%
Clean Sheet24%24%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana3474
65%
2.2
5328+25
2.4
71%
47%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.60.8
-
2Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans3466
56%
1.9
5522+33
2.3
74%
32%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.60.6
-
3MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk3457
47%
1.7
4439+5
2.4
76%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.31.1
-
4Valletta FCValletta FC3454
41%
1.6
4126+15
2.0
62%
26%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.20.8
-
5Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers3248
38%
1.5
3736+1
2.3
72%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.21.1
-
6Gzira UnitedGzira United3243
38%
1.3
3843-5
2.5
72%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.3
-
7HiberniansHibernians3239
31%
1.2
4549-4
2.9
78%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.41.5
-
8BirkirkaraBirkirkara3235
25%
1.1
2936-7
2.0
62%
34%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2110.91.1
-
9Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions3335
27%
1.1
4152-11
2.8
76%
55%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.6
-
10Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick3433
18%
1.0
4245-3
2.6
79%
44%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.3
-
11MostaMosta3329
21%
0.9
3558-23
2.8
70%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.8
-
12Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows3424
12%
0.7
3359-26
2.7
76%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.7
-
Malta: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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