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Naxxar Lions vs Valletta FC Result & Analysis

Date: 05/10/2025
Time: 16:45
Final 0-1
Naxxar Lions
Naxxar Lions
Vs
20%
27%
52%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Valletta FC
Valletta FC
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Naxxar Lions win✗ Miss
20.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC win✓ Hit
52.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W11D10W13L01L11D23L02L01L40WA·GZI28/04A·BAL03/05A·MEL09/05H·FLO17/08H·MAR24/08A·ZAB13/09H·TAR16/09A·HIB20/09A·BIR24/09A·SLI28/09
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.600.901.801.151.50
vs Stronger (6)0.833.000.503.001.003.00
vs Similar (24)1.121.251.001.501.191.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Valletta FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Valletta FCValletta FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W30W30W00D11D31W20W11D41W21WH·PIE30/03A·SAN05/04H·MAR12/04H·BIR16/08A·HAM31/08H·MAR12/09A·FLO16/09A·SLI21/09H·MOS24/09A·TAR28/09← Challenge LeaguePremier League →
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.230.472.730.471.730.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)2.100.432.890.331.500.50
vs Weaker (9)2.560.562.500.672.670.33
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
72.8%
Under 1.5
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.1%
Under 2.5
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.6%
Under 3.5
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.1%
No
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
0-1 ✓
11.7%
0-2
10.4%
1-2
9.5%
0-0
9.3%
1-0
6.2%
0-3
5.5%
2-1
5.4%
Naxxar Lions goals ↓
Valletta FC goals →
01234
09.3%12%10%5.5%2.2%
16.2%13%9.5%5.1%2.0%
23.4%5.4%4.3%2.3%0.9%
31.0%1.7%1.3%0.7%0.3%
40.2%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Naxxar Lions goals (down), columns = Valletta FC goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Tarxien Rainbows
0.71
Naxxar Lions is 0.53 points worse than Valletta FC in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 1.59).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Naxxar Lions
1.24
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Tarxien Rainbows
0.97
Birkirkara
0.91
Naxxar Lions is 0.04 goals better than Valletta FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.21).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Naxxar Lions
1.58
Tarxien Rainbows
1.74
Mosta
1.76
Naxxar Lions is 0.81 goals worse than Valletta FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 0.76).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D10W02L00D11D11D01L01L30WA·GZI28/04A·BAL03/05A·MEL09/05H·FLO17/08H·MAR24/08A·ZAB13/09H·TAR16/09A·HIB20/09A·BIR24/09A·SLI28/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.800.500.700.600.85
vs Stronger (6)0.501.500.001.500.751.50
vs Similar (24)0.580.620.620.500.560.69
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Valletta FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Valletta FCValletta FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W10W20W00D11D00D00D00D01L11DH·PIE30/03A·SAN05/04H·MAR12/04H·BIR16/08A·HAM31/08H·MAR12/09A·FLO16/09A·SLI21/09H·MOS24/09A·TAR28/09← Challenge LeaguePremier League →
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.201.200.200.870.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.950.141.330.110.670.17
vs Weaker (9)1.220.331.000.331.670.33
Clean sheet %80% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Naxxar Lions over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D00D11D01L00D12L01L00D10WA·GZI28/04A·BAL03/05A·MEL09/05H·FLO17/08H·MAR24/08A·ZAB13/09H·TAR16/09A·HIB20/09A·BIR24/09A·SLI28/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.800.401.100.550.65
vs Stronger (6)0.331.500.501.500.251.50
vs Similar (24)0.540.620.381.000.620.44
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Valletta FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Valletta FCValletta FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L20W10W00D00D31W20W11D40W10WH·PIE30/03A·SAN05/04H·MAR12/04H·BIR16/08A·HAM31/08H·MAR12/09A·FLO16/09A·SLI21/09H·MOS24/09A·TAR28/09← Challenge LeaguePremier League →
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.271.530.270.870.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)1.140.291.560.220.830.33
vs Weaker (9)1.330.221.500.331.000.00
Clean sheet %73% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Naxxar Lions over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.572.8%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
NL (16)
€1m
TR (8)
€1m
Naxxar Lions's squad is €3m less valuable than Valletta FC's (€1m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Naxxar Lions's attack is €1m less valuable than Valletta FC's (€0m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Naxxar Lions and Valletta FC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
TR (4)
€0m
Naxxar Lions's defence is €1m less valuable than Valletta FC's (€1m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
2
NL wins
0
Draws
0
VF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Naxxar Lions vs Valletta FC · H/A from NL
DateH/AGameScore
28/04/24HNL Vs Valletta FC4-0
07/01/24AValletta FC Vs NL1-2

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/09/25ASliema Wanderers Vs NL0-4
24/09/25ABirkirkara Vs NL1-0
20/09/25AHibernians Vs NL2-0
16/09/25HNL Vs Tarxien Rainbows2-3
13/09/25AZabbar St. Patrick Vs NL1-1
24/08/25HNL Vs Marsaxlokk0-1
17/08/25HNL Vs Floriana1-3
09/05/25AMelita Vs NL0-1
03/05/25ABalzan FC Vs NL1-1
28/04/25AGzira United Vs NL0-2

Valletta FCValletta FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/09/25ATarxien Rainbows Vs VF1-2
24/09/25HVF Vs Mosta4-1
21/09/25ASliema Wanderers Vs VF1-1
16/09/25AFloriana Vs VF0-2
12/09/25HVF Vs Marsaxlokk3-1
31/08/25AHamrun Spartans Vs VF1-1
16/08/25HVF Vs Birkirkara0-0
12/04/25HVF Vs Marsa3-0
05/04/25ASanta Lucía Vs VF0-3
30/03/25HVF Vs Pietà Hotspurs2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Naxxar Lions
Naxxar Lions
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLW1.06
HomeWWLLL0.95
AwayWDLLW1.14
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%24%31%
AVG goals2.602.622.59
Over 1.5 %76%81%72%
Over 2.5 %44%57%34%
Over 3.5 %24%19%28%
Scored1.060.901.17
Conceded1.541.711.41
BTTS36%43%31%
Clean Sheet26%24%28%
Corners---
Cards---
Valletta FC
Valletta FC
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWW1.86
HomeWWDWW1.88
AwayWDWDW1.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%56%52%
AVG goals2.462.722.20
Over 1.5 %76%84%68%
Over 2.5 %46%52%40%
Over 3.5 %16%20%12%
Scored1.661.881.44
Conceded0.800.840.76
BTTS40%44%36%
Clean Sheet42%40%44%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana3474
65%
2.2
5328+25
2.4
71%
47%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.60.8
-
2Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans3466
56%
1.9
5522+33
2.3
74%
32%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.60.6
-
3MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk3457
47%
1.7
4439+5
2.4
76%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.31.1
-
4Valletta FCValletta FC3454
41%
1.6
4126+15
2.0
62%
26%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.20.8
-
5Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers3248
38%
1.5
3736+1
2.3
72%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.21.1
-
6Gzira UnitedGzira United3243
38%
1.3
3843-5
2.5
72%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.3
-
7HiberniansHibernians3239
31%
1.2
4549-4
2.9
78%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.41.5
-
8BirkirkaraBirkirkara3235
25%
1.1
2936-7
2.0
62%
34%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2110.91.1
-
9Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions3335
27%
1.1
4152-11
2.8
76%
55%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.6
-
10Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick3433
18%
1.0
4245-3
2.6
79%
44%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.3
-
11MostaMosta3329
21%
0.9
3558-23
2.8
70%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.8
-
12Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows3424
12%
0.7
3359-26
2.7
76%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.7
-
Malta: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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