The model projects a high-scoring affair with an average of 3.2 goals, most likely totaling three. The favoured outcome is a home win, with a 51% chance, followed by a 24% draw and a 25% away win. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.9% probability. NEC Nijmegen, playing at home against a weaker opponent, averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while Excelsior, on the road to a stronger side, averages 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded. The model’s selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.3%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.0%, Under 7.5 at 96.5% with a 1% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 94.9%, Away under 3.5 goals at 92.4%, Under 6.5 at 91.8%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 91.2%, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 90.0%. Both teams have recently finished with wins, giving NEC a slight momentum advantage.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
NEC Nijmegen win
51.2%
Avg Implied 66.0% · @ 1.42
Edge
-14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.50
Unibet
1.46
BetVictor
1.45
888Sport
1.44
Dafabet
1.43
Draw
24.1%
Avg Implied 19.4% · @ 4.83
Edge
+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
5.10
Betano
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Dafabet
5.00
1xBet
4.99
Excelsior win
24.7%
Avg Implied 14.6% · @ 6.39
Edge
+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
7.31
Marathonbet
7.10
Dafabet
7.00
Betano
6.80
William Hil
6.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
NEC Nijmegen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.53
1.80
1.53
1.93
1.53
vs Stronger (11)
1.45
1.91
1.60
1.80
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (10)
2.00
1.40
2.20
1.60
1.80
1.20
vs Weaker (9)
2.22
1.22
1.60
1.20
3.00
1.25
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Excelsior) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Excelsior
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.40
1.33
1.33
1.53
1.47
vs Stronger (10)
1.40
1.70
1.80
1.60
1.00
1.80
vs Similar (20)
1.45
1.25
1.10
1.20
1.80
1.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (NEC Nijmegen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.4%
@ 1.10-0.5%
Under 1.5
15.6%
@ 6.17+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.14
Betano
1.13
888Sport
1.13
Unibet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Under
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.15
1xBet
6.15
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
62.9%
@ 1.40-4.0%
Under 2.5
37.1%
@ 2.82+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.45
888Sport
1.44
Unibet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Under
10Bet
3.00
Betano
2.95
Bet365
2.88
Marathonbet
2.83
1xBet
2.83
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
40.7%
@ 2.03-5.9%
Under 3.5
59.3%
@ 1.77+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.15
Betfair
2.10
888Sport
2.10
Unibet
2.08
BetVictor
2.03
Under
1xBet
1.86
Betano
1.85
10Bet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Both teams to score
Yes
63.4%
@ 1.53+3.0%
No
36.6%
@ 2.34-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
888Sport
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.55
Unibet
1.54
William Hil
1.53
No
William Hil
2.38
Betfair
2.38
BetVictor
2.38
Betano
2.37
10Bet
2.35
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%@ 9.49+6.1%
2-1
9.6%@ 7.95+3.8%
2-0
7.3%@ 8.89+2.2%
1-0
6.6%@ 10.40+2.2%
1-2
6.4%@ 17.67+3.9%
2-2
6.2%@ 13.36+2.8%
3-1
6.2%@ 9.60+1.4%
0-0
4.9%@ 20.72+2.7%
NEC Nijmegen goals ↓
Excelsior goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
4.1%
3.3%
1.4%
0.5%
1
6.6%
11%
6.4%
2.8%
0.9%
2
7.3%
9.6%
6.2%
2.7%
0.9%
3
4.7%
6.2%
4.0%
1.8%
0.6%
4
2.3%
3.0%
2.0%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = NEC Nijmegen goals (down), columns = Excelsior goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
Willem II
1.14
Excelsior
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Telstar
1.09
PEC Zwolle
1.09
ADO Den Haag
1.08
Cambuur
1.03
NEC Nijmegen is 0.62 points better than Excelsior in terms of average points per game (1.74 vs 1.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Telstar
1.44
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Groningen
1.40
Willem II
1.32
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
ADO Den Haag
1.25
Cambuur
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
NEC Nijmegen is 1.00 goals better than Excelsior in terms of goals scored per game (2.26 vs 1.26).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
Willem II
1.90
ADO Den Haag
2.01
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Cambuur
2.10
NEC Nijmegen is 0.09 goals better than Excelsior in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.65).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
PSV Eindhoven
61%
NEC Nijmegen
57%
Ajax
56%
Twente
54%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Feyenoord
53%
Heerenveen
51%
Groningen
50%
GO Ahead Eagles
49%
Excelsior
48%
Sparta Rotterdam
47%
Utrecht
47%
Telstar
45%
PEC Zwolle
45%
Fortuna Sittard
45%
NEC Nijmegen is 9.1 percentage points better than Excelsior in terms of average possession (57% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
NEC Nijmegen
For 6.4 · Against 3.4 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 12.8 · Total 25.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Excelsior
For 3.8 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.9 · Against 1.9 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 8.3 · Total 19.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
NEC Nijmegen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.1
9.8
3.7
4.0
3.4
24.1
24.0
24.2
vs Stronger (15)
9.2
8.6
9.9
4.4
5.4
3.3
24.8
26.1
23.4
vs Similar (21)
10.7
10.8
10.7
3.7
3.2
3.9
24.5
22.9
25.5
vs Weaker (14)
9.5
11.0
8.0
3.0
3.3
2.7
22.9
23.3
22.4
% over line
53%
45%
59%
46%
52%
41%
65%
59%
70%
% under line
47%
55%
41%
54%
48%
59%
35%
41%
30%
This opponent (Excelsior) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Excelsior
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.0
9.9
2.7
2.8
2.6
21.5
20.7
22.4
vs Stronger (15)
9.3
7.2
11.6
2.2
2.0
2.4
18.8
17.6
20.1
vs Similar (34)
9.4
9.6
9.2
3.0
3.4
2.6
22.7
22.1
23.3
vs Weaker (1)
12.0
12.0
-
1.0
1.0
-
23.0
23.0
-
% over line
43%
40%
46%
30%
28%
32%
45%
36%
54%
% under line
57%
60%
54%
70%
72%
68%
55%
64%
46%
This opponent (NEC Nijmegen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
GO Ahead Eagles
11.3
PSV Eindhoven
11.3
Fortuna Sittard
10.8
Willem II
10.8
Sparta Rotterdam
10.7
Telstar
10.6
ADO Den Haag
10.6
AZ Alkmaar
10.4
Heerenveen
10.2
Feyenoord
10.1
Groningen
10.1
Cambuur
10.1
Twente
10.0
NEC Nijmegen
9.9
Utrecht
9.8
Ajax
9.7
Excelsior
9.4
PEC Zwolle
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cambuur
3.9
NEC Nijmegen
3.9
Twente
3.8
Sparta Rotterdam
3.8
Feyenoord
3.7
Utrecht
3.7
AZ Alkmaar
3.7
Ajax
3.6
ADO Den Haag
3.6
Groningen
3.6
PSV Eindhoven
3.5
Fortuna Sittard
3.4
PEC Zwolle
3.4
Telstar
3.3
GO Ahead Eagles
3.3
Willem II
3.1
Excelsior
3.1
Heerenveen
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ADO Den Haag
26.5
Cambuur
26.4
NEC Nijmegen
23.9
Fortuna Sittard
23.4
Utrecht
23.2
Feyenoord
22.8
AZ Alkmaar
22.6
PEC Zwolle
22.5
Telstar
22.5
Willem II
22.3
Ajax
21.8
Excelsior
21.7
Groningen
20.7
Twente
20.6
Sparta Rotterdam
20.6
Heerenveen
20.0
GO Ahead Eagles
18.9
PSV Eindhoven
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
61.6%
@ 1.57+2.5%
Under 9.5
38.4%
@ 2.27-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.67
Betano
1.60
Betfair
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.50
Betano
2.25
Unibet
2.05
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
47.3%
Under 3.5
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
53.5%
Under 21.5
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
NEC Nijmegen or Draw
72.0%
Avg Implied 84.8% · @ 1.11
Edge
-12.8%
51%
24%
25%
covers NEC Nijmegen + Draw
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.14
888Sport
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
NEC Nijmegen or Excelsior
77.5%
Avg Implied 81.4% · @ 1.16
Edge
-4.0%
51%
24%
25%
covers NEC Nijmegen + Excelsior
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.18
1xBet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.17
Draw or Excelsior
50.6%
Avg Implied 33.8% · @ 2.79
Edge
+16.8%
51%
24%
25%
covers Draw + Excelsior
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.10
Betano
2.95
1xBet
2.92
Marathonbet
2.89
10Bet
2.85
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
NEC Nijmegen over/under 0.5
Over
88.0%
@ 1.05-1.3%
Under
12.0%
@ 8.73+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Under
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
9.50
1xBet
9.50
888Sport
8.00
Betano
7.40
NEC Nijmegen over/under 1.5
Over
62.6%
@ 1.35-6.5%
Under
37.4%
@ 3.00+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
888Sport
1.40
Unibet
1.36
Betano
1.35
Under
Betfair
3.25
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.20
1xBet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.10
NEC Nijmegen over/under 2.5
Over
35.6%
@ 2.12-8.5%
Under
64.4%
@ 1.67+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.35
888Sport
2.30
BetVictor
2.25
Unibet
2.18
Marathonbet
2.04
Under
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Betfair
1.73
NEC Nijmegen over/under 3.5
Over
16.5%
@ 3.84-7.7%
Under
83.5%
@ 1.23+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.33
888Sport
4.33
Pinnacle
4.25
Unibet
4.10
Bet365
3.75
Under
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Excelsior over/under 0.5
Over
79.4%
@ 1.42+13.9%
Under
20.6%
@ 2.69-13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Marathonbet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
2.84
888Sport
2.75
Betfair
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Unibet
2.70
Excelsior over/under 1.5
Over
46.9%
@ 3.08+16.7%
Under
53.1%
@ 1.33-16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
1xBet
3.22
Marathonbet
3.22
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.05
Under
Pinnacle
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Unibet
1.33
Excelsior over/under 2.5
Over
21.2%
@ 8.16+9.7%
Under
78.8%
@ 1.05-9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.00
1xBet
9.00
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.00
888Sport
8.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Unibet
1.04
Excelsior over/under 3.5
Over
7.6%
@ 21.33+3.1%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.01-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
888Sport
26.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to NEC Nijmegen, so a minus line means NEC Nijmegen give that many goals of a start and Excelsior receive them. At -1, NEC Nijmegen must win by two or more to land; a one-goal NEC Nijmegen win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (NEC Nijmegen)
NEC Nijmegen -2
14.7%
@ 3.35-12.3%
Draw -2
15.0%
@ 4.37-5.7%
Excelsior +2
70.3%
@ 1.73+18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
3.65
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
10Bet
3.25
Marathonbet
3.14
Draw
Marathonbet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
4.20
Away
Betfair
1.80
Marathonbet
1.76
10Bet
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Unibet
1.62
Handicap -1 (NEC Nijmegen)
NEC Nijmegen -1
29.7%
@ 2.00-15.4%
Draw -1
19.7%
@ 3.94-3.2%
Excelsior +1
50.6%
@ 2.82+18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
1.95
Betfair
1.91
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.05
10Bet
3.90
Betfair
3.75
Unibet
3.65
Away
Betfair
3.00
Marathonbet
2.89
10Bet
2.85
Bet365
2.75
Unibet
2.60
Handicap +1 (NEC Nijmegen)
NEC Nijmegen +1
72.0%
@ 1.11-8.9%
Draw +1
14.5%
@ 7.50+2.5%
Excelsior -1
13.6%
@ 12.58+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.08
Draw
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.00
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Away
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
10Bet
13.00
Unibet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.90
Handicap +2 (NEC Nijmegen)
NEC Nijmegen +2
86.4%
@ 1.02-7.0%
Draw +2
8.3%
@ 21.00+3.8%
Excelsior -2
5.2%
@ 48.50+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.02
Draw
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
21.00
Away
Betfair
56.00
Bet365
41.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
NEC Nijmegen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.93
0.73
1.13
0.87
0.73
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.18
0.60
1.40
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (10)
1.00
1.00
1.20
1.20
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
0.56
0.40
0.80
1.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Excelsior) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Excelsior
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.60
0.40
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
0.80
0.60
0.80
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.40
0.60
0.20
0.90
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (NEC Nijmegen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.7%
@ 1.19-2.3%
Under 0.5
24.3%
@ 4.23+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
William Hil
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.80
William Hil
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
3.94
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
42.4%
@ 1.96-5.2%
Under 1.5
57.6%
@ 1.79+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.10
Marathonbet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
William Hil
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Under
William Hil
1.83
10Bet
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.76
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.9%
@ 4.03-7.2%
Under 2.5
84.1%
@ 1.21+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
4.20
1xBet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.15
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Under
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
Betfair
1.20
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
NEC Nijmegen over/under 0.5 HT
Over
60.4%
@ 1.41-5.8%
Under
39.6%
@ 2.76+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Under
10Bet
2.88
1xBet
2.75
Betano
2.65
NEC Nijmegen over/under 1.5 HT
Over
21.7%
@ 2.90-10.2%
Under
78.3%
@ 1.36+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.00
Marathonbet
2.98
10Bet
2.80
1xBet
2.80
Under
10Bet
1.38
1xBet
1.36
Betano
1.36
Marathonbet
1.33
NEC Nijmegen over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.9%
@ 7.00-7.4%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.07+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.20
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Excelsior over/under 0.5 HT
Over
39.8%
@ 2.43+1.6%
Under
60.2%
@ 1.50-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.47
Marathonbet
2.46
10Bet
2.40
1xBet
2.40
Under
10Bet
1.53
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.47
Excelsior over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.1%
@ 9.08-0.0%
Under
89.9%
@ 1.03+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
9.10
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
Excelsior over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
NEC Nijmegen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.60
1.07
0.40
1.07
0.80
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
0.73
1.00
0.40
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.40
vs Weaker (9)
1.44
0.67
1.20
0.40
1.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Excelsior) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Excelsior
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.87
0.73
0.93
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
0.90
1.20
0.80
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.85
0.50
1.00
0.90
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (NEC Nijmegen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.7%
@ 1.11+0.1%
Under 0.5
16.3%
@ 5.70-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.15
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Under
1xBet
6.40
Bet365
6.00
Betano
5.90
10Bet
5.80
William Hil
5.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
52.2%
@ 1.59-6.1%
Under 1.5
47.8%
@ 2.23+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.70
William Hil
1.62
Bet365
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Under
Betano
2.37
Marathonbet
2.27
1xBet
2.27
10Bet
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
26.8%
@ 2.83-6.1%
Under 2.5
73.2%
@ 1.39+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
3.20
William Hil
2.90
1xBet
2.77
Marathonbet
2.77
Bet365
2.75
Under
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
NEC Nijmegen over/under 0.5 2H
Over
64.2%
@ 1.25-9.8%
Under
35.8%
@ 3.58+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.24
Under
1xBet
3.60
Betano
3.55
NEC Nijmegen over/under 1.5 2H
Over
31.2%
@ 2.19-11.0%
Under
68.8%
@ 1.60+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.20
1xBet
2.17
Betano
2.15
Under
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.58
10Bet
1.57
NEC Nijmegen over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.8%
@ 4.72-11.9%
Under
92.2%
@ 1.15+11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.00
1xBet
4.70
Betano
4.45
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Excelsior over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.3%
@ 2.02+1.4%
Under
52.7%
@ 1.72-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.03
Betano
1.98
Under
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.68
Excelsior over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.6%
@ 6.33-1.0%
Under
86.4%
@ 1.08+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.00
1xBet
6.40
Betano
5.60
Under
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
Excelsior over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.0%
@ 11.50-5.1%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.02+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.1%
Under 7.5
96.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+1.7%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.1%
1.07
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
-
-
+7.4%
Away under 3.5 goals
92.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-3.1%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.2%
1.15
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
+11.9%
Under 6.5
91.8%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Unibet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+0.6%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.9%
1.03
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-
+0.0%
Home over 0.5 goals
88.0%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-1.3%
Home +2 handicap
86.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.02
-
-
-
-7.0%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.4%
1.08
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
-
-
+1.0%
Under 5.5 cards
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.4%
1.10
Pinnacle
1.14
Betano
1.13
888Sport
1.13
Unibet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
-0.5%
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.1%
1.21
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
Betfair
1.20
+7.2%
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.7%
1.11
888Sport
1.15
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
+0.1%
Home under 3.5 goals
83.5%
1.23
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+7.7%
Under 5.5
83.0%
1.11
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
888Sport
1.11
Pinnacle
1.11
-1.4%
Away over 0.5 goals
79.4%
1.42
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Marathonbet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
+13.9%
Away under 2.5 goals
78.8%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Unibet
1.04
-9.7%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
78.3%
1.36
10Bet
1.38
1xBet
1.36
Betano
1.36
Marathonbet
1.33
-
+10.2%
Home or Away
77.5%
1.16
888Sport
1.18
1xBet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.17
-4.0%
Under 25.5 fouls
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.7%
1.19
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
William Hil
1.18
-2.3%
Under 2.5 2H goals
73.2%
1.39
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
+6.1%
Over 8.5 corners
73.1%
1.33
Unibet
1.40
Betano
1.36
Betfair
1.22
-
-
+3.0%
Home or Draw
72.0%
1.11
BetVictor
1.14
888Sport
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
-12.8%
Home +1 handicap
72.0%
1.11
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.08
-8.9%
Under 4.5 cards
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
70.3%
1.73
Betfair
1.80
Marathonbet
1.76
10Bet
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Unibet
1.62
+18.0%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
NEC Nijmegen
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kaj Sierhuis40%
Adam Tahaui33%
Bryan Linssen29%
Tjaronn Chery29%
Emre Mor17%
Clement Bischoff14%
Dušan Tadić0%
Philippe Sandler0%
Willum Thor Willumsson0%
Darko Nejašmić0%
Bram Nuytinck0%
Jamiro Monteiro0%
Gonzalo Crettaz0%
Isak Hansen Aarøen0%
Brayann Pereira0%
Noé Lebreton0%
Tobias Storm0%
Deveron Fonville0%
Sami Ouaissa0%
Almugera Kabar0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Brayann Pereira43%
Isak Hansen Aarøen33%
Tobias Storm33%
Willum Thor Willumsson25%
Almugera Kabar25%
Kaj Sierhuis20%
Jamiro Monteiro17%
Dušan Tadić14%
Noé Lebreton14%
Philippe Sandler0%
Darko Nejašmić0%
Bram Nuytinck0%
Bryan Linssen0%
Emre Mor0%
Tjaronn Chery0%
Gonzalo Crettaz0%
Deveron Fonville0%
Sami Ouaissa0%
Clement Bischoff0%
Adam Tahaui0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dušan Tadić57%
Kaj Sierhuis20%
Tjaronn Chery14%
Clement Bischoff14%
Philippe Sandler0%
Willum Thor Willumsson0%
Darko Nejašmić0%
Bram Nuytinck0%
Bryan Linssen0%
Emre Mor0%
Jamiro Monteiro0%
Gonzalo Crettaz0%
Isak Hansen Aarøen0%
Brayann Pereira0%
Noé Lebreton0%
Tobias Storm0%
Deveron Fonville0%
Sami Ouaissa0%
Almugera Kabar0%
Adam Tahaui0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tjaronn Chery57%
Adam Tahaui33%
Bryan Linssen29%
Emre Mor17%
Dušan Tadić0%
Philippe Sandler0%
Willum Thor Willumsson0%
Darko Nejašmić0%
Bram Nuytinck0%
Kaj Sierhuis0%
Jamiro Monteiro0%
Gonzalo Crettaz0%
Isak Hansen Aarøen0%
Brayann Pereira0%
Noé Lebreton0%
Tobias Storm0%
Deveron Fonville0%
Sami Ouaissa0%
Almugera Kabar0%
Clement Bischoff0%
Excelsior
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Casper Widell33%
David Garden33%
Irakli Yegoian33%
Nesto Groen33%
Aymen Sliti33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Simon Janssen0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
Ilano Silva Timas0%
Jan Plug0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Simon Janssen33%
Jan Plug33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Casper Widell0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
David Garden0%
Ilano Silva Timas0%
Irakli Yegoian0%
Nesto Groen0%
Aymen Sliti0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Irakli Yegoian67%
Simon Janssen33%
Ilano Silva Timas33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Casper Widell0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
David Garden0%
Nesto Groen0%
Aymen Sliti0%
Jan Plug0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
David Garden33%
Aymen Sliti33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Simon Janssen0%
Casper Widell0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
Ilano Silva Timas0%
Irakli Yegoian0%
Nesto Groen0%
Jan Plug0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
TEL (21)
€8m
NEC Nijmegen's squad is €37m more valuable than Excelsior's (€54m vs €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
NEC Nijmegen's attack is €15m more valuable than Excelsior's (€22m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
TEL (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
ADH (3)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
NEC Nijmegen's midfield is €3m more valuable than Excelsior's (€5m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
TEL (10)
€3m
NEC Nijmegen's defence is €19m more valuable than Excelsior's (€26m vs €6m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AZ Alkmaar
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Ajax
GO Ahead Eagles
Fortuna Sittard
Twente
Groningen
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
PEC Zwolle
Telstar
Willem II
ADO Den Haag
Utrecht
Cambuur