NEC Nijmegen return to the home ground after a 3-1 win over PEC Zwolle, but the model still sees Feyenoord as the clear favourite, with a 55% chance of victory versus 22% for NEC and 23% for a draw. The expected goal tally sits at 3.3, with the most likely total of three goals at 22%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.5% probability. NEC, playing against a stronger opponent, averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded at home, while Feyenoord, facing a weaker side away, averages 1.77 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.5%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.1%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.7%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.2%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.5%), Under 6.5 (93.8%), and Away +2 handicap (89.8%). Each selection carries its own probability, with edges ranging from 3% to 10%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
NEC Nijmegen win
20.7%
Avg Implied 33.2% · @ 2.82
Edge
-12.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.92
Dafabet
2.90
Bet365
2.90
Pinnacle
2.88
Betano
2.85
Draw
23.0%
Avg Implied 23.5% · @ 3.97
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
Betano
4.10
Dafabet
4.10
Pinnacle
4.09
Feyenoord win
56.3%
Avg Implied 43.3% · @ 2.16
Edge
+13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.25
Dafabet
2.23
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.20
1xBet
2.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
NEC Nijmegen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.53
1.80
1.53
1.93
1.53
vs Stronger (11)
1.45
1.91
1.60
1.80
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (10)
2.00
1.40
2.20
1.60
1.80
1.20
vs Weaker (9)
2.22
1.22
1.60
1.20
3.00
1.25
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Feyenoord) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Feyenoord
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.53
2.27
1.53
1.53
1.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
2.00
1.00
1.67
0.00
2.50
vs Weaker (25)
2.16
1.44
2.58
1.50
1.77
1.38
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (NEC Nijmegen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.4%
@ 1.09-1.8%
Under 1.5
15.6%
@ 6.82+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
Pinnacle
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Under
Betfair
8.00
BetVictor
7.00
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.0%
@ 1.34-7.0%
Under 2.5
37.0%
@ 3.12+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.38
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.35
BetVictor
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.40
10Bet
3.30
Betano
3.15
Bet365
3.10
Unibet
3.10
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
40.8%
@ 1.87-9.7%
Under 3.5
59.2%
@ 1.91+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.92
Betano
1.91
SBO
1.89
Unibet
1.89
Under
Betfair
2.00
10Bet
1.95
Betano
1.93
SBO
1.93
1xBet
1.92
Both teams to score
Yes
61.7%
@ 1.32-8.7%
No
38.3%
@ 3.14+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Betfair
1.33
1xBet
1.32
No
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.25
10Bet
3.20
BetVictor
3.20
Unibet
3.10
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.5%@ 8.79+5.3%
1-2
9.8%@ 9.16+4.8%
0-2
8.2%@ 14.99+5.2%
0-1
7.0%@ 14.34+3.8%
1-3
6.7%@ 13.25+3.2%
2-2
5.8%@ 9.81+1.2%
2-1
5.7%@ 10.53+1.3%
0-3
5.6%@ 21.61+3.5%
NEC Nijmegen goals ↓
Feyenoord goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.8%
7.0%
8.2%
5.6%
2.9%
1
3.7%
10%
9.8%
6.7%
3.4%
2
2.8%
5.7%
5.8%
4.0%
2.1%
3
1.1%
2.3%
2.3%
1.6%
0.8%
4
0.3%
0.7%
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = NEC Nijmegen goals (down), columns = Feyenoord goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
Willem II
1.14
Excelsior
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Telstar
1.09
PEC Zwolle
1.09
ADO Den Haag
1.08
Cambuur
1.03
NEC Nijmegen is 0.18 points worse than Feyenoord in terms of average points per game (1.74 vs 1.91).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Telstar
1.44
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Groningen
1.40
Willem II
1.32
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
ADO Den Haag
1.25
Cambuur
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
NEC Nijmegen is 0.21 goals better than Feyenoord in terms of goals scored per game (2.26 vs 2.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
Willem II
1.90
ADO Den Haag
2.01
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Cambuur
2.10
NEC Nijmegen is 0.26 goals worse than Feyenoord in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
PSV Eindhoven
61%
NEC Nijmegen
57%
Ajax
56%
Twente
54%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Feyenoord
53%
Heerenveen
51%
Groningen
50%
GO Ahead Eagles
49%
Excelsior
48%
Sparta Rotterdam
47%
Utrecht
47%
Telstar
45%
PEC Zwolle
45%
Fortuna Sittard
45%
NEC Nijmegen is 3.5 percentage points better than Feyenoord in terms of average possession (57% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
NEC Nijmegen
For 6.4 · Against 3.4 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 12.8 · Total 25.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Feyenoord
For 6.6 · Against 3.5 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.2 · Against 12.0 · Total 21.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
NEC Nijmegen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.0
9.8
3.7
4.0
3.4
23.9
23.6
24.2
vs Stronger (14)
9.2
8.6
9.9
4.7
6.1
3.3
24.8
26.1
23.4
vs Similar (21)
10.7
10.8
10.7
3.7
3.2
3.9
24.5
22.9
25.5
vs Weaker (15)
9.4
10.6
8.0
2.8
2.9
2.7
22.3
22.1
22.4
% over line
52%
43%
59%
46%
52%
41%
64%
57%
70%
% under line
48%
57%
41%
54%
48%
59%
36%
43%
30%
This opponent (Feyenoord) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Feyenoord
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.6
9.6
3.4
2.9
4.0
22.8
22.6
23.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
9.8
8.2
11.5
4.3
3.2
5.5
25.8
24.2
27.3
vs Weaker (38)
10.2
11.4
8.9
3.2
2.8
3.5
21.9
22.1
21.8
% over line
48%
48%
48%
40%
36%
44%
56%
56%
56%
% under line
52%
52%
52%
60%
64%
56%
44%
44%
44%
This opponent (NEC Nijmegen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
GO Ahead Eagles
11.3
PSV Eindhoven
11.3
Fortuna Sittard
10.8
Willem II
10.8
Sparta Rotterdam
10.7
Telstar
10.6
ADO Den Haag
10.6
AZ Alkmaar
10.4
Heerenveen
10.2
Feyenoord
10.1
Groningen
10.1
Cambuur
10.1
Twente
10.0
NEC Nijmegen
9.9
Utrecht
9.8
Ajax
9.7
Excelsior
9.4
PEC Zwolle
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cambuur
3.9
NEC Nijmegen
3.9
Twente
3.8
Sparta Rotterdam
3.8
Feyenoord
3.7
Utrecht
3.7
AZ Alkmaar
3.7
Ajax
3.6
ADO Den Haag
3.6
Groningen
3.6
PSV Eindhoven
3.5
Fortuna Sittard
3.4
PEC Zwolle
3.4
Telstar
3.3
GO Ahead Eagles
3.3
Willem II
3.1
Excelsior
3.1
Heerenveen
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ADO Den Haag
26.5
Cambuur
26.4
NEC Nijmegen
23.9
Fortuna Sittard
23.4
Utrecht
23.2
Feyenoord
22.8
AZ Alkmaar
22.6
PEC Zwolle
22.5
Telstar
22.5
Willem II
22.3
Ajax
21.8
Excelsior
21.7
Groningen
20.7
Twente
20.6
Sparta Rotterdam
20.6
Heerenveen
20.0
GO Ahead Eagles
18.9
PSV Eindhoven
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
59.1%
@ 1.65+3.2%
Under 9.5
40.9%
@ 2.10-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
Unibet
1.65
Under
Betfair
2.20
Betano
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Unibet
2.07
1xBet
2.05
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
52.8%
@ 2.25+11.3%
Under 3.5
47.2%
@ 1.60-11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.25
Under
Betano
1.60
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
57.0%
Under 21.5
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
NEC Nijmegen or Draw
45.8%
Avg Implied 56.2% · @ 1.67
Edge
-10.4%
21%
23%
56%
covers NEC Nijmegen + Draw
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.76
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.68
10Bet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
NEC Nijmegen or Feyenoord
77.3%
Avg Implied 76.9% · @ 1.22
Edge
+0.4%
21%
23%
56%
covers NEC Nijmegen + Feyenoord
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
Draw or Feyenoord
76.8%
Avg Implied 66.9% · @ 1.40
Edge
+10.0%
21%
23%
56%
covers Draw + Feyenoord
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Unibet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
NEC Nijmegen over/under 0.5
Over
74.0%
@ 1.15-6.5%
Under
26.0%
@ 4.74+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Under
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
10Bet
4.75
1xBet
4.60
NEC Nijmegen over/under 1.5
Over
38.9%
@ 1.81-12.5%
Under
61.1%
@ 1.92+12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathonbet
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Betano
1.82
BetVictor
1.80
Under
Betfair
2.00
10Bet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.91
Unibet
1.91
Bet365
1.91
NEC Nijmegen over/under 2.5
Over
15.3%
@ 3.53-11.0%
Under
84.7%
@ 1.26+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.82
BetVictor
3.60
1xBet
3.58
Marathonbet
3.58
Bet365
3.50
Under
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
NEC Nijmegen over/under 3.5
Over
4.8%
@ 7.67-7.3%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.05+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
7.60
1xBet
7.60
Betfair
7.50
Unibet
7.50
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Unibet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Feyenoord over/under 0.5
Over
87.9%
@ 1.11+3.9%
Under
12.1%
@ 5.80-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Under
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
1xBet
5.80
BetVictor
5.75
10Bet
5.75
Feyenoord over/under 1.5
Over
62.4%
@ 1.60+4.3%
Under
37.6%
@ 2.22-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Unibet
1.61
1xBet
1.61
Under
Betfair
2.25
Bet365
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.24
1xBet
2.24
Feyenoord over/under 2.5
Over
35.4%
@ 2.86+2.8%
Under
64.6%
@ 1.38-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.04
Unibet
2.95
1xBet
2.88
BetVictor
2.88
Marathonbet
2.88
Under
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.40
Betfair
1.40
10Bet
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Feyenoord over/under 3.5
Over
16.4%
@ 5.85+0.5%
Under
83.6%
@ 1.11-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.80
1xBet
5.80
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to NEC Nijmegen, so a minus line means NEC Nijmegen give that many goals of a start and Feyenoord receive them. At -1, NEC Nijmegen must win by two or more to land; a one-goal NEC Nijmegen win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (NEC Nijmegen)
NEC Nijmegen -2
3.5%
@ 10.06-5.5%
Draw -2
6.7%
@ 7.74-4.9%
Feyenoord +2
89.8%
@ 1.13+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
11.00
10Bet
9.50
Unibet
9.50
Marathonbet
9.30
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Betfair
8.00
Marathonbet
7.70
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Away
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
Handicap -1 (NEC Nijmegen)
NEC Nijmegen -1
10.2%
@ 5.06-7.6%
Draw -1
13.0%
@ 4.93-5.2%
Feyenoord +1
76.8%
@ 1.40+12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
Unibet
4.90
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.60
Away
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Handicap +1 (NEC Nijmegen)
NEC Nijmegen +1
45.8%
@ 1.64-8.5%
Draw +1
20.9%
@ 4.32+0.2%
Feyenoord -1
33.3%
@ 3.57+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
Betfair
1.62
Unibet
1.60
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.20
Unibet
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Away
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.70
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.42
Handicap +2 (NEC Nijmegen)
NEC Nijmegen +2
66.7%
@ 1.24-6.1%
Draw +2
16.6%
@ 6.16+1.9%
Feyenoord -2
16.7%
@ 7.18+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Unibet
1.22
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.05
Unibet
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Away
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Betfair
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.40
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
NEC Nijmegen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.93
0.73
1.13
0.87
0.73
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.18
0.60
1.40
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (10)
1.00
1.00
1.20
1.20
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
0.56
0.40
0.80
1.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Feyenoord) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Feyenoord
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.73
0.93
0.67
0.93
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.20
1.40
0.33
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.08
0.60
1.08
0.58
1.08
0.62
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (NEC Nijmegen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.0%
@ 1.18-2.7%
Under 0.5
24.0%
@ 4.34+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Under
Betfair
4.80
10Bet
4.50
William Hil
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.15
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.1%
@ 1.90-7.9%
Under 1.5
58.9%
@ 1.83+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.02
Unibet
1.96
SBO
1.94
Marathonbet
1.93
1xBet
1.93
Under
SBO
1.88
Pinnacle
1.87
Betfair
1.85
William Hil
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.7%
@ 3.82-9.5%
Under 2.5
85.3%
@ 1.22+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.10
Betano
4.00
Betfair
3.80
William Hil
3.75
1xBet
3.75
Under
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Betfair
1.22
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
NEC Nijmegen over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.6%
@ 1.75-4.5%
Under
51.4%
@ 1.99+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
Pinnacle
1.76
Unibet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Under
10Bet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Unibet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.95
NEC Nijmegen over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.1%
@ 4.66-5.8%
Under
85.9%
@ 1.16+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.75
Betano
4.65
1xBet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Under
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Unibet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
NEC Nijmegen over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.0%
@ 10.25-6.2%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.03+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Feyenoord over/under 0.5 HT
Over
52.3%
@ 1.62-5.3%
Under
47.7%
@ 2.20+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.65
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.61
Pinnacle
1.60
10Bet
1.57
Under
Pinnacle
2.30
10Bet
2.25
1xBet
2.18
Betano
2.15
Unibet
2.10
Feyenoord over/under 1.5 HT
Over
15.0%
@ 3.93-8.5%
Under
85.0%
@ 1.21+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.10
Betano
4.00
1xBet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.84
10Bet
3.80
Under
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Feyenoord over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.1%
@ 10.12-6.2%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.03+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
11.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Unibet
1.03
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
NEC Nijmegen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.60
1.07
0.40
1.07
0.80
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
0.73
1.00
0.40
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.40
vs Weaker (9)
1.44
0.67
1.20
0.40
1.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Feyenoord) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Feyenoord
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.80
1.33
0.87
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.60
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (25)
1.08
0.84
1.50
0.92
0.69
0.77
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (NEC Nijmegen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.1%
@ 1.10-3.0%
Under 0.5
17.9%
@ 6.27+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Under
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.80
10Bet
6.40
Betano
6.10
William Hil
6.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.5%
@ 1.52-9.6%
Under 1.5
48.5%
@ 2.39+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
William Hil
1.53
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.45
10Bet
2.40
Unibet
2.40
William Hil
2.38
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.7%
@ 2.61-12.7%
Under 2.5
77.3%
@ 1.44+12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.65
Marathonbet
2.65
Unibet
2.63
Bet365
2.62
William Hil
2.62
Under
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.42
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
NEC Nijmegen over/under 0.5 2H
Over
57.1%
@ 1.51-4.5%
Under
42.9%
@ 2.42+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Under
Betano
2.45
1xBet
2.40
NEC Nijmegen over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.3%
@ 3.40-6.9%
Under
79.7%
@ 1.27+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.48
10Bet
3.40
1xBet
3.40
Betano
3.30
Under
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
NEC Nijmegen over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.5%
@ 8.45-6.5%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.04+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.30
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.02
Feyenoord over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.8%
@ 1.41-10.4%
Under
44.2%
@ 2.75+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.41
Betano
1.40
Under
Betano
2.80
1xBet
2.70
Feyenoord over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.1%
@ 2.88-13.1%
Under
80.9%
@ 1.36+13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.93
1xBet
2.90
10Bet
2.85
Betano
2.82
Under
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
Feyenoord over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.6%
@ 6.95-7.7%
Under
94.4%
@ 1.06+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.50
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.04
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.01
Betfair
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.8%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.0%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.2%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.9%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Unibet
1.03
-
-
-
+6.2%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.5%
1.04
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
+6.5%
Home under 3.5 goals
95.2%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Unibet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
+7.3%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.4%
1.06
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.04
-
-
-
+7.7%
Under 6.5
93.8%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Unibet
1.03
+3.3%
Away +2 handicap
89.8%
1.13
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
+10.4%
Away over 0.5 goals
87.9%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
+3.9%
Under 5.5
86.3%
1.15
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Pinnacle
1.16
Bet365
1.14
+4.5%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.9%
1.16
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Unibet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
+5.8%
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.3%
1.22
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Betfair
1.22
+9.5%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
85.0%
1.21
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
+8.5%
Home under 2.5 goals
84.7%
1.26
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
+11.0%
Over 1.5
84.4%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Pinnacle
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
-1.8%
Away under 3.5 goals
83.6%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
-0.5%
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.1%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.08
-3.0%
Under 5.5 cards
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.9%
1.36
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
-
+13.1%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.7%
1.27
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
-
+6.9%
Home or Away
77.3%
1.22
Unibet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
+0.4%
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.3%
1.44
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.42
+12.7%
Draw or Away
76.8%
1.40
Betano
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Unibet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
+10.0%
Away +1 handicap
76.8%
1.40
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
+12.8%
Over 0.5 HT goals
76.0%
1.18
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
10Bet
1.17
-2.7%
Under 25.5 fouls
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
74.0%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
-6.5%
Under 4.5
73.3%
1.37
10Bet
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.38
Bet365
1.36
+5.1%
Over 2.5 cards
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
71.0%
1.36
Betano
1.40
Unibet
1.40
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Betfair
1.30
+3.7%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
NEC Nijmegen
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kaj Sierhuis40%
Adam Tahaui33%
Bryan Linssen29%
Tjaronn Chery29%
Emre Mor17%
Clement Bischoff14%
Dušan Tadić0%
Philippe Sandler0%
Willum Thor Willumsson0%
Darko Nejašmić0%
Bram Nuytinck0%
Jamiro Monteiro0%
Gonzalo Crettaz0%
Isak Hansen Aarøen0%
Brayann Pereira0%
Noé Lebreton0%
Tobias Storm0%
Deveron Fonville0%
Sami Ouaissa0%
Almugera Kabar0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Brayann Pereira43%
Isak Hansen Aarøen33%
Tobias Storm33%
Willum Thor Willumsson25%
Almugera Kabar25%
Kaj Sierhuis20%
Jamiro Monteiro17%
Dušan Tadić14%
Noé Lebreton14%
Philippe Sandler0%
Darko Nejašmić0%
Bram Nuytinck0%
Bryan Linssen0%
Emre Mor0%
Tjaronn Chery0%
Gonzalo Crettaz0%
Deveron Fonville0%
Sami Ouaissa0%
Clement Bischoff0%
Adam Tahaui0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dušan Tadić57%
Kaj Sierhuis20%
Tjaronn Chery14%
Clement Bischoff14%
Philippe Sandler0%
Willum Thor Willumsson0%
Darko Nejašmić0%
Bram Nuytinck0%
Bryan Linssen0%
Emre Mor0%
Jamiro Monteiro0%
Gonzalo Crettaz0%
Isak Hansen Aarøen0%
Brayann Pereira0%
Noé Lebreton0%
Tobias Storm0%
Deveron Fonville0%
Sami Ouaissa0%
Almugera Kabar0%
Adam Tahaui0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tjaronn Chery57%
Adam Tahaui33%
Bryan Linssen29%
Emre Mor17%
Dušan Tadić0%
Philippe Sandler0%
Willum Thor Willumsson0%
Darko Nejašmić0%
Bram Nuytinck0%
Kaj Sierhuis0%
Jamiro Monteiro0%
Gonzalo Crettaz0%
Isak Hansen Aarøen0%
Brayann Pereira0%
Noé Lebreton0%
Tobias Storm0%
Deveron Fonville0%
Sami Ouaissa0%
Almugera Kabar0%
Clement Bischoff0%
Feyenoord
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ayase Ueda75%
Luciano Valente50%
Gjivai Zechiël50%
Anis Hadj Moussa25%
Charles Vanhoutte0%
Tsuyoshi Watanabe0%
Jeremiah St Juste0%
Mika Mármol0%
Tjark Ernst0%
Oussama Targhalline0%
Nacho Ferri0%
Givairo Read0%
Thijs Kraaijeveld0%
Gaoussou Diarra0%
Shaqueel van Persie0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Charles Vanhoutte25%
Anis Hadj Moussa25%
Tsuyoshi Watanabe0%
Jeremiah St Juste0%
Ayase Ueda0%
Mika Mármol0%
Tjark Ernst0%
Oussama Targhalline0%
Luciano Valente0%
Nacho Ferri0%
Givairo Read0%
Thijs Kraaijeveld0%
Gjivai Zechiël0%
Gaoussou Diarra0%
Shaqueel van Persie0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Oussama Targhalline33%
Ayase Ueda25%
Anis Hadj Moussa25%
Gjivai Zechiël25%
Gaoussou Diarra25%
Charles Vanhoutte0%
Tsuyoshi Watanabe0%
Jeremiah St Juste0%
Mika Mármol0%
Tjark Ernst0%
Luciano Valente0%
Nacho Ferri0%
Givairo Read0%
Thijs Kraaijeveld0%
Shaqueel van Persie0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ayase Ueda75%
Anis Hadj Moussa50%
Gaoussou Diarra50%
Luciano Valente25%
Gjivai Zechiël25%
Charles Vanhoutte0%
Tsuyoshi Watanabe0%
Jeremiah St Juste0%
Mika Mármol0%
Tjark Ernst0%
Oussama Targhalline0%
Nacho Ferri0%
Givairo Read0%
Thijs Kraaijeveld0%
Shaqueel van Persie0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
TEL (21)
€8m
NEC Nijmegen's squad is €176m less valuable than Feyenoord's (€54m vs €229m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
NEC Nijmegen's attack is €70m less valuable than Feyenoord's (€22m vs €93m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
TEL (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
ADH (3)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
NEC Nijmegen's midfield is €38m less valuable than Feyenoord's (€5m vs €43m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
TEL (10)
€3m
NEC Nijmegen's defence is €68m less valuable than Feyenoord's (€26m vs €93m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
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AZ Alkmaar
PSV Eindhoven
Ajax
GO Ahead Eagles
Fortuna Sittard
Twente
Excelsior
Groningen
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
PEC Zwolle
Telstar
Willem II
ADO Den Haag
Utrecht
Cambuur