This opponent (Utrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Utrecht
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.07
1.88
1.38
1.50
0.71
vs Stronger (5)
1.40
1.40
1.67
1.33
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (5)
1.00
0.80
2.00
2.00
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.95
1.05
1.92
1.33
2.00
0.62
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (NEC Nijmegen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
65.3%
Under 1.5
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
37.3%
@ 1.77-16.3%
Under 2.5
62.7%
@ 2.05+16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.8%
Under 3.5
82.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
40.2%
No
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.5%
1-1
12.9%
0-0
12.4%
2-0
12.3%
2-1
8.7%
0-1
6.7%
3-0
6.1%
3-1
4.3%
NEC Nijmegen goals ↓
Utrecht goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
6.7%
2.8%
0.7%
0.1%
1
15%
13%
4.1%
1.0%
0.2%
2
12%
8.7%
3.1%
0.7%
0.1%
3
6.1%
4.3%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
4
2.3%
1.6%
0.6%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = NEC Nijmegen goals (down), columns = Utrecht goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ajax
2.44
PSV Eindhoven
2.38
Feyenoord
2.09
Twente
2.00
AZ Alkmaar
1.79
Vitesse
1.50
Utrecht
1.38
Heerenveen
1.21
Cambuur
1.15
NEC Nijmegen
1.12
Waalwijk
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.06
Groningen
1.06
Sparta Rotterdam
1.03
Fortuna Sittard
1.03
Heracles
1.00
Willem II
0.97
PEC Zwolle
0.79
NEC Nijmegen is 0.26 points worse than Utrecht in terms of average points per game (1.12 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ajax
2.88
PSV Eindhoven
2.53
Feyenoord
2.24
AZ Alkmaar
1.88
Twente
1.62
Cambuur
1.56
Utrecht
1.50
Vitesse
1.24
Groningen
1.21
Waalwijk
1.18
NEC Nijmegen
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.09
Heerenveen
1.09
Fortuna Sittard
1.06
Heracles
0.97
Willem II
0.94
Sparta Rotterdam
0.88
PEC Zwolle
0.76
NEC Nijmegen is 0.38 goals worse than Utrecht in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
0.56
Feyenoord
1.00
Twente
1.09
PSV Eindhoven
1.24
AZ Alkmaar
1.29
Utrecht
1.35
Sparta Rotterdam
1.41
Heracles
1.44
Heerenveen
1.47
Vitesse
1.50
GO Ahead Eagles
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
PEC Zwolle
1.53
NEC Nijmegen
1.53
Groningen
1.62
Willem II
1.68
Fortuna Sittard
1.97
Cambuur
2.06
NEC Nijmegen is 0.18 goals worse than Utrecht in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.35).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
NEC Nijmegen
For 3.8 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 3.2 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 11.8 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Utrecht
For 5.2 · Against 3.9 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 11.5 · Total 21.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
NEC Nijmegen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.0
9.3
0.5
0.5
0.5
22.6
26.5
20.0
vs Stronger (11)
10.0
-
10.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
12.0
-
12.0
vs Similar (23)
8.3
7.0
9.0
1.0
0.8
1.1
26.0
30.0
24.0
vs Weaker (16)
11.0
11.0
-
0.2
0.4
0.0
23.0
23.0
-
% over line
60%
50%
67%
8%
9%
7%
60%
100%
33%
% under line
40%
50%
33%
92%
91%
93%
40%
0%
67%
This opponent (Utrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Utrecht
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.9
10.0
3.4
3.6
3.2
21.6
20.3
22.8
vs Stronger (8)
10.2
9.4
11.7
2.2
2.4
2.0
21.1
20.2
22.7
vs Similar (8)
10.5
12.5
8.5
4.2
4.0
4.5
22.2
19.5
25.0
vs Weaker (34)
10.5
10.9
10.1
3.4
3.9
3.1
21.5
20.6
22.3
% over line
56%
56%
56%
40%
52%
28%
44%
40%
48%
% under line
44%
44%
44%
60%
48%
72%
56%
60%
52%
This opponent (NEC Nijmegen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Heerenveen
10.8
Ajax
10.6
Utrecht
10.4
PSV Eindhoven
10.3
GO Ahead Eagles
10.2
PEC Zwolle
10.2
Feyenoord
10.1
Cambuur
10.0
Sparta Rotterdam
9.8
Heracles
9.8
AZ Alkmaar
9.7
Fortuna Sittard
9.4
Groningen
9.3
Twente
9.3
Vitesse
9.3
NEC Nijmegen
9.2
Waalwijk
9.1
Willem II
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NEC Nijmegen
5.2
Vitesse
3.8
Utrecht
3.4
Heracles
3.3
Twente
3.2
Sparta Rotterdam
3.2
Feyenoord
3.1
Groningen
3.1
Fortuna Sittard
3.0
AZ Alkmaar
3.0
Waalwijk
3.0
Willem II
2.9
PEC Zwolle
2.9
GO Ahead Eagles
2.8
Heerenveen
2.8
PSV Eindhoven
2.7
Ajax
2.4
Cambuur
2.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Vitesse
25.6
Fortuna Sittard
22.7
PEC Zwolle
22.6
NEC Nijmegen
22.6
Twente
22.6
Groningen
22.5
Heracles
22.4
Waalwijk
22.1
Feyenoord
22.0
Utrecht
21.6
AZ Alkmaar
21.3
Willem II
21.2
Sparta Rotterdam
20.9
Ajax
20.7
Cambuur
20.6
PSV Eindhoven
20.3
GO Ahead Eagles
19.8
Heerenveen
18.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
47.4%
Under 9.5
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
54.6%
Under 3.5
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
61.0%
Under 21.5
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
NEC Nijmegen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.93
0.79
0.79
0.25
1.06
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
2.50
0.50
2.00
0.25
2.75
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.73
0.86
0.86
0.25
0.62
vs Weaker (9)
0.56
0.22
0.80
0.20
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Utrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Utrecht
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.75
0.62
0.64
0.43
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.80
1.00
0.67
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (5)
0.20
0.20
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.25
vs Weaker (20)
0.80
0.55
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.38
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (NEC Nijmegen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
NEC Nijmegen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NEC Nijmegen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NEC Nijmegen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
NEC Nijmegen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.57
0.50
0.38
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.67
0.57
0.57
0.38
0.75
vs Weaker (9)
0.56
0.56
0.40
0.20
0.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Utrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Utrecht
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.53
1.12
0.75
0.86
0.29
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.60
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.60
1.00
2.00
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (20)
1.15
0.50
1.25
0.67
1.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (NEC Nijmegen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
NEC Nijmegen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NEC Nijmegen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NEC Nijmegen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
NEC Nijmegen · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kaj Sierhuis40%
Adam Tahaui33%
Bryan Linssen29%
Tjaronn Chery29%
Emre Mor17%
Clement Bischoff14%
Dušan Tadić0%
Philippe Sandler0%
Willum Thor Willumsson0%
Darko Nejašmić0%
Bram Nuytinck0%
Jamiro Monteiro0%
Gonzalo Crettaz0%
Isak Hansen Aarøen0%
Brayann Pereira0%
Noé Lebreton0%
Tobias Storm0%
Deveron Fonville0%
Sami Ouaissa0%
Almugera Kabar0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Brayann Pereira43%
Isak Hansen Aarøen33%
Tobias Storm33%
Willum Thor Willumsson25%
Almugera Kabar25%
Kaj Sierhuis20%
Jamiro Monteiro17%
Dušan Tadić14%
Noé Lebreton14%
Philippe Sandler0%
Darko Nejašmić0%
Bram Nuytinck0%
Bryan Linssen0%
Emre Mor0%
Tjaronn Chery0%
Gonzalo Crettaz0%
Deveron Fonville0%
Sami Ouaissa0%
Clement Bischoff0%
Adam Tahaui0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dušan Tadić57%
Kaj Sierhuis20%
Tjaronn Chery14%
Clement Bischoff14%
Philippe Sandler0%
Willum Thor Willumsson0%
Darko Nejašmić0%
Bram Nuytinck0%
Bryan Linssen0%
Emre Mor0%
Jamiro Monteiro0%
Gonzalo Crettaz0%
Isak Hansen Aarøen0%
Brayann Pereira0%
Noé Lebreton0%
Tobias Storm0%
Deveron Fonville0%
Sami Ouaissa0%
Almugera Kabar0%
Adam Tahaui0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tjaronn Chery57%
Adam Tahaui33%
Bryan Linssen29%
Emre Mor17%
Dušan Tadić0%
Philippe Sandler0%
Willum Thor Willumsson0%
Darko Nejašmić0%
Bram Nuytinck0%
Kaj Sierhuis0%
Jamiro Monteiro0%
Gonzalo Crettaz0%
Isak Hansen Aarøen0%
Brayann Pereira0%
Noé Lebreton0%
Tobias Storm0%
Deveron Fonville0%
Sami Ouaissa0%
Almugera Kabar0%
Clement Bischoff0%
Utrecht · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Artem Stepanov100%
Adrian Blake50%
Arthur Zagre0%
Dani De Wit0%
Vasilis Barkas0%
Siebe Horemans0%
Niklas Vesterlund0%
Neville Nwankwo0%
Kevin Paredes0%
Davy van den Berg0%
Yoann Cathline0%
Guus Offerhaus0%
Ángel Alarcón0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Arthur Zagre50%
Dani De Wit50%
Guus Offerhaus50%
Vasilis Barkas33%
Artem Stepanov33%
Siebe Horemans25%
Niklas Vesterlund0%
Neville Nwankwo0%
Kevin Paredes0%
Davy van den Berg0%
Yoann Cathline0%
Ángel Alarcón0%
Adrian Blake0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Niklas Vesterlund50%
Yoann Cathline50%
Davy van den Berg25%
Arthur Zagre0%
Dani De Wit0%
Vasilis Barkas0%
Siebe Horemans0%
Neville Nwankwo0%
Kevin Paredes0%
Guus Offerhaus0%
Ángel Alarcón0%
Adrian Blake0%
Artem Stepanov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ángel Alarcón25%
Arthur Zagre0%
Dani De Wit0%
Vasilis Barkas0%
Siebe Horemans0%
Niklas Vesterlund0%
Neville Nwankwo0%
Kevin Paredes0%
Davy van den Berg0%
Yoann Cathline0%
Guus Offerhaus0%
Adrian Blake0%
Artem Stepanov0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
HER (28)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
NEC Nijmegen's squad is €8m less valuable than Utrecht's (€54m vs €61m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
CAM (10)
€3m
NEC Nijmegen's attack is €10m less valuable than Utrecht's (€22m vs €33m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
SR (2)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
NEC Nijmegen's midfield is €8m less valuable than Utrecht's (€5m vs €14m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
WI (12)
€5m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
VIT (11)
€2m
NEC Nijmegen's defence is €11m more valuable than Utrecht's (€26m vs €15m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ajax
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Twente
AZ Alkmaar
Vitesse
Heerenveen
Cambuur
Waalwijk
Groningen
GO Ahead Eagles
Sparta Rotterdam
Fortuna Sittard
Heracles
Willem II
PEC Zwolle