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Neftchi Baku vs Araz Result & Analysis

Date: 29/03/2025
Time: 12:45
Final 1-1
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Vs
39%
34%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Araz
Araz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Neftchi Baku win✗ Miss
38.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
33.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Araz win✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L10W20W21W01L10W10W01L11D21WA·ARA26/01H·ŞAM31/01A·KAP05/02A·ZIR10/02H·QAR16/02H·SUM21/02H·KAP28/02A·KAP05/03H·TUR10/03A·SƏB16/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.171.310.940.931.43
vs Stronger (3)0.002.670.002.000.004.00
vs Similar (12)0.751.080.671.000.831.17
vs Weaker (15)1.670.932.120.621.141.29
Clean sheet %27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArazAraz

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W00D10W00D01L00D20W22D13L11DH·NEF26/01A·SUM01/02H·ZIR06/02H·KAP10/02A·TUR16/02H·SƏB22/02A·ZIR28/02A·SAB04/03H·QAR08/03H·ŞAM14/03
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.631.130.731.270.53
vs Stronger (2)0.502.501.003.000.002.00
vs Similar (21)1.140.521.000.561.250.50
vs Weaker (7)1.570.431.400.602.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%16%025%128%218%39%43%51%6+
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
59.5%
Under 1.5
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
31.1%
Under 2.5
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
13.5%
Under 3.5
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
39.8%
No
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
15.5%
1-1 ✓
14.7%
1-0
14.0%
0-1
11.0%
2-0
8.3%
2-1
7.2%
1-2
5.8%
0-2
5.4%
Neftchi Baku goals ↓
Araz goals →
01234
016%11%5.4%1.6%0.3%
114%15%5.8%1.7%0.4%
28.3%7.2%3.2%0.9%0.2%
33.0%2.6%1.1%0.3%0.1%
40.8%0.7%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Neftchi Baku goals (down), columns = Araz goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qarabag
2.47
Zira
2.06
Araz
1.61
Turan
1.53
Sabah FA
1.33
Neftchi Baku
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.00
Sumqayıt
0.92
Kapaz
0.89
Səbail
0.61
Neftchi Baku is 0.42 points worse than Araz in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.61).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.39
Zira
1.64
Sabah FA
1.39
Turan
1.25
Neftchi Baku
1.08
Araz
0.94
Şamaxı FK
0.89
Sumqayıt
0.86
Səbail
0.78
Kapaz
0.78
Neftchi Baku is 0.14 goals better than Araz in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 0.94).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Qarabag
0.53
Zira
0.75
Araz
0.81
Turan
1.08
Sabah FA
1.28
Şamaxı FK
1.28
Neftchi Baku
1.36
Sumqayıt
1.47
Səbail
1.64
Kapaz
1.81
Neftchi Baku is 0.56 goals worse than Araz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 0.81).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W10W00D00D00D10W00D00D21WA·ARA26/01H·ŞAM31/01A·KAP05/02A·ZIR10/02H·QAR16/02H·SUM21/02H·KAP28/02A·KAP05/03H·TUR10/03A·SƏB16/03
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.530.690.250.500.86
vs Stronger (3)0.001.330.000.500.003.00
vs Similar (12)0.170.330.170.170.170.50
vs Weaker (15)1.070.531.250.250.860.86
Clean sheet %67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArazAraz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D00D00D00D00D20W11D11D10WH·NEF26/01A·SUM01/02H·ZIR06/02H·KAP10/02A·TUR16/02H·SƏB22/02A·ZIR28/02A·SAB04/03H·QAR08/03H·ŞAM14/03
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.230.400.200.670.27
vs Stronger (2)0.501.001.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (21)0.520.190.330.110.670.25
vs Weaker (7)0.570.140.400.201.000.00
Clean sheet %77% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D10W21W01L10W00D01L11D00DA·ARA26/01H·ŞAM31/01A·KAP05/02A·ZIR10/02H·QAR16/02H·SUM21/02H·KAP28/02A·KAP05/03H·TUR10/03A·SƏB16/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.630.620.690.430.57
vs Stronger (3)0.001.330.001.500.001.00
vs Similar (12)0.580.750.500.830.670.67
vs Weaker (15)0.600.400.880.380.290.43
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArazAraz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D10W00D01L00D00D11D02L01LH·NEF26/01A·SUM01/02H·ZIR06/02H·KAP10/02A·TUR16/02H·SƏB22/02A·ZIR28/02A·SAB04/03H·QAR08/03H·ŞAM14/03
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.400.730.530.600.27
vs Stronger (2)0.001.500.002.000.001.00
vs Similar (21)0.620.330.670.440.580.25
vs Weaker (7)1.000.291.000.401.000.00
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.586.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Neftchi Baku's squad is €7m more valuable than Araz's (€13m vs €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Neftchi Baku's attack is €1m more valuable than Araz's (€4m vs €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Neftchi Baku's midfield is €1m more valuable than Araz's (€3m vs €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Neftchi Baku's defence is €5m more valuable than Araz's (€6m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
1
NB wins
2
Draws
4
ARA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Neftchi Baku vs Araz · H/A from NB
DateH/AGameScore
26/01/25AAraz Vs NB2-1
01/11/24HNB Vs Araz0-1
24/08/24AAraz Vs NB1-1
13/04/24HNB Vs Araz3-0
13/02/24AAraz Vs NB1-0
26/11/23HNB Vs Araz1-1
16/09/23AAraz Vs NB1-0

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/03/25ASəbail Vs NB1-2
10/03/25HNB Vs Turan1-1
05/03/25AKapaz Vs NB1-0
28/02/25HNB Vs Kapaz1-0
21/02/25HNB Vs Sumqayıt1-0
16/02/25HNB Vs Qarabag0-1
10/02/25AZira Vs NB1-2
05/02/25AKapaz Vs NB0-2
31/01/25HNB Vs Şamaxı FK1-0
26/01/25AAraz Vs NB2-1

ArazAraz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/03/25HARA Vs Şamaxı FK1-1
08/03/25HARA Vs Qarabag1-3
04/03/25ASabah FA Vs ARA2-2
28/02/25AZira Vs ARA0-2
22/02/25HARA Vs Səbail0-0
16/02/25ATuran Vs ARA1-0
10/02/25HARA Vs Kapaz0-0
06/02/25HARA Vs Zira1-0
01/02/25ASumqayıt Vs ARA0-0
26/01/25HARA Vs Neftchi Baku2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLDW1.42
HomeWLWWD1.85
AwayLWWLW0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%54%21%
AVG goals2.522.542.50
Over 1.5 %72%69%75%
Over 2.5 %44%46%42%
Over 3.5 %22%23%21%
Scored1.321.650.96
Conceded1.200.881.54
BTTS44%42%46%
Clean Sheet32%38%25%
Corners---
Cards---
Araz
Araz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDLD1.38
HomeWDDLD1.40
AwayLDLWD1.36
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%36%40%
AVG goals2.122.082.16
Over 1.5 %60%56%64%
Over 2.5 %32%32%32%
Over 3.5 %22%20%24%
Scored0.980.961.00
Conceded1.141.121.16
BTTS38%48%28%
Clean Sheet36%32%40%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QarabagQarabag3689
78%
2.5
8619+67
2.9
78%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.40.5
-
2ZiraZira3674
64%
2.1
5927+32
2.4
67%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.60.8
-
3ArazAraz3658
42%
1.6
3429+5
1.8
53%
17%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3220.90.8
-
4TuranTuran3655
39%
1.5
4539+6
2.3
64%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.21.1
-
5Sabah FASabah FA3648
28%
1.3
5046+4
2.7
75%
42%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5571.41.3
-
6Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3643
28%
1.2
3949-10
2.4
75%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.11.4
-
7Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3636
25%
1.0
3246-14
2.2
61%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.3
-
8SumqayıtSumqayıt3633
25%
0.9
3153-22
2.3
61%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4240.91.5
-
9KapazKapaz3632
22%
0.9
2865-37
2.6
67%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1230.81.8
-
10SəbailSəbail3622
11%
0.6
2859-31
2.4
67%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.81.6
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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