Neftchi Baku vs Araz Result & Analysis

Date: 23/08/2026

Time: 16:45

Final 5-0

Neftchi Baku

58%

23%

19%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Araz

Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa

Referee: -

1 Model Analysis 2 Goal Analysis 3 Team Strengths Analysis 4 Props Analysis 5 Double Chance 6 Home & Away Over/Under 7 Handicap 8 Half Time Goals O/U 9 Half Time Home & Away O/U 10 Second Half Goals O/U 11 Second Half Home & Away O/U

12 Top picks for this game 14 Squad value 15 Games History 16 Overall Statistics 17 League Table

Match preview & prediction

Neftchi Baku's recent 5-game winning streak sets the tone for this matchup against Araz, with the home side looking to extend their winning run. However, Araz's decent away form, scoring an average of 1.67 goals per game against similar opponents, suggests they will pose a challenge.

The model predicts a home win for Neftchi Baku, with a 58% probability, while a draw is 23% likely and an away win is 19% likely. The expected total number of goals is 3.1, with the most likely outcome being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 10.9% probability.

Neftchi Baku's home form is relatively even, scoring 0.8 goals and conceding 0.8 against similar opponents. Araz's away form is more prolific, conceding 2 goals on average. The model's selection for over 1.5 goals is 82% likely.

The suggested picks include over 1.5 goals, with a 82% probability. The home win percentage is 58%, the draw percentage is 23%, and the away win percentage is 19%.

Results analysis

The model’s prediction proved spot on, as Neftchi Baku extended their five-game winning streak with a 5-0 triumph over Araz. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was chosen with a 58 % probability and the result matched the actual outcome. Every suggested pick was examined: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.2 %, Under 7.5 hit at 98.7 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.5 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 97.7 %, Under 6.5 hit at 96.3 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals missed at 93.8 %, Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 93.5 %, and Home +2 handicap hit at 92.9 %. The model’s selections largely came through, confirming the accuracy of its predictions.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Neftchi Baku win✓ Hit

58.1%

Avg Implied 62.4% · @ 1.44

Edge

-4.4%

Best 5 market prices

Superbet

1.49

Dafabet

1.47

Unibet

1.47

Betano

1.47

Bet365

1.45

Draw✗ Miss

23.3%

Avg Implied 22.6% · @ 3.97

Edge

+0.7%

Best 5 market prices

1xBet

4.20

Marathonbet

4.20

Pinnacle

4.15

Betano

4.10

Betfair

4.00

Araz win✗ Miss

18.6%

Avg Implied 14.9% · @ 6.02

Edge

+3.7%

Best 5 market prices

1xBet

6.72

Betfair

6.50

Marathonbet

6.45

Pinnacle

6.14

William Hil

6.00

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Neftchi Baku

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.2

Avg scored

2.1

Avg conceded

1.1

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	2.10	1.10	2.46	1.38	1.82	0.88
vs Stronger (3)	1.00	2.67	1.50	3.00	0.00	2.00
vs Similar (12)	1.58	1.00	2.00	1.20	1.29	0.86
vs Weaker (15)	2.73	0.87	3.17	1.00	2.44	0.78
Clean sheet %	33% (+2pp vs league)

This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Araz

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.6

Avg scored

1.1

Avg conceded

1.5

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.23	1.67	1.24	1.18	1.23	2.31
vs Stronger (2)	0.50	5.50	-	-	0.50	5.50
vs Similar (22)	1.18	1.68	1.08	1.50	1.30	1.90
vs Weaker (6)	1.67	0.33	1.60	0.40	2.00	0.00
Clean sheet %	30% (-1pp vs league)

This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

82.0%

@ 1.23+7.9%

Under 1.5

18.0%

@ 3.52-7.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betfair

1.25

Bet365

1.25

Betano

1.25

Superbet

1.24

Unibet

1.23

Under

Betfair

3.80

Bet365

3.75

Marathonbet

3.58

1xBet

3.58

Unibet

3.45

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

59.0%

@ 1.81+7.7%

Under 2.5

41.0%

@ 1.91-7.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

SBO

1.90

Superbet

1.85

Bet365

1.85

Pinnacle

1.81

Betfair

1.80

Under

Pinnacle

1.99

Bet365

1.95

Marathonbet

1.92

1xBet

1.92

Betfair

1.91

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over

Over 3.5

36.6%

@ 2.93+5.4%

Under 3.5

63.4%

@ 1.33-5.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betfair

3.10

Bet365

3.00

Superbet

2.95

1xBet

2.92

Marathonbet

2.92

Under

Betfair

1.36

Bet365

1.36

Betano

1.33

Unibet

1.33

Marathonbet

1.31

Both teams to scoreActual: No

Yes

57.5%

@ 1.94+10.1%

42.5%

@ 1.75-10.1%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

Bet365

2.00

Superbet

1.97

William Hil

1.95

Marathonbet

1.92

1xBet

1.92

Betfair

1.83

1xBet

1.76

William Hil

1.75

Superbet

1.74

Bet365

1.73

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-1

10.9%@ 7.03+4.9%

2-1

9.9%@ 7.29+4.1%

2-0

9.4%@ 6.02+2.2%

1-0

8.4%@ 5.72+0.9%

3-1

6.6%@ 11.39+2.9%

3-0

6.2%@ 9.22+1.6%

0-0

5.7%@ 10.61+1.6%

1-2

5.3%@ 17.90+2.9%

Neftchi Baku goals ↓

	Araz goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.7%	4.0%	2.6%	0.9%	0.2%
1	8.4%	11%	5.3%	1.9%	0.5%
2	9.4%	9.9%	5.3%	1.9%	0.5%
3	6.2%	6.6%	3.5%	1.2%	0.3%
4	3.1%	3.3%	1.8%	0.6%	0.2%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Neftchi Baku goals (down), columns = Araz goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Sabah FA

2.36

Qarabag

2.09

Neftchi Baku

1.79

Turan

1.79

Zira

1.61

Araz

1.39

Sumqayıt

1.19

Şamaxı FK

1.15

Safa Baku

1.09

Imisli FK

1.06

Qabala

0.88

Kapaz

0.82

Neftchi Baku is 0.39 points better than Araz in terms of average points per game (1.79 vs 1.39).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Sabah FA

2.27

Qarabag

2.15

Neftchi Baku

1.73

Araz

1.33

Turan

1.33

Sumqayıt

1.31

Zira

1.30

Safa Baku

1.02

Qabala

1.00

Şamaxı FK

0.94

Kapaz

0.76

Imisli FK

0.72

Neftchi Baku is 0.39 goals better than Araz in terms of goals scored per game (1.73 vs 1.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Sabah FA

0.76

Qarabag

0.82

Turan

0.82

Neftchi Baku

0.97

Zira

1.09

Şamaxı FK

1.21

Imisli FK

1.25

Qabala

1.44

Sumqayıt

1.53

Safa Baku

1.57

Araz

1.76

Kapaz

1.85

Neftchi Baku is 0.79 goals better than Araz in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.76).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

Neftchi Baku or Draw✓ Hit

81.4%

Avg Implied 85.1% · @ 1.07

Edge

-3.7%

58%

23%

19%

covers Neftchi Baku + Draw

Best 5 market prices

Betano

1.12

William Hil

1.11

Superbet

1.09

Unibet

1.08

Bet365

1.08

Neftchi Baku or Araz✓ Hit

76.7%

Avg Implied 77.7% · @ 1.18

Edge

-1.0%

58%

23%

19%

covers Neftchi Baku + Araz

Best 5 market prices

William Hil

1.25

Betano

1.20

Superbet

1.19

Bet365

1.18

Unibet

1.17

Draw or Araz✗ Miss

41.9%

Avg Implied 37.2% · @ 2.46

Edge

+4.7%

58%

23%

19%

covers Draw + Araz

Best 5 market prices

Betfair

2.63

Betano

2.60

1xBet

2.55

Marathonbet

2.55

William Hil

2.45

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.

Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5Actual: Over

Over

86.4%

@ 1.10+2.8%

Under

13.6%

@ 5.64-2.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.12

Betfair

1.10

Superbet

1.10

1xBet

1.09

Under

1xBet

6.20

Betfair

6.00

Bet365

5.50

Superbet

4.85

Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5Actual: Over

Over

59.3%

@ 1.61+1.7%

Under

40.7%

@ 2.19-1.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

1.65

Bet365

1.62

1xBet

1.62

Betano

1.62

Pinnacle

1.60

Under

Pinnacle

2.28

Betfair

2.25

Bet365

2.20

Marathonbet

2.20

Betano

2.18

Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5Actual: Over

Over

32.3%

@ 2.87+0.2%

Under

67.7%

@ 1.36-0.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betfair

3.00

Bet365

3.00

Superbet

2.92

Marathonbet

2.80

1xBet

2.65

Under

1xBet

1.42

Bet365

1.36

Marathonbet

1.36

Betfair

1.33

Superbet

1.31

Neftchi Baku over/under 3.5Actual: Over

Over

14.2%

@ 5.83-1.7%

Under

85.8%

@ 1.11+1.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betfair

6.00

Bet365

6.00

1xBet

5.50

Under

Bet365

1.11

1xBet

1.11

Betfair

1.10

Araz over/under 0.5Actual: Under

Over

65.4%

@ 1.72+11.5%

Under

34.6%

@ 2.00-11.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

1.78

Bet365

1.73

Superbet

1.72

Betano

1.72

1xBet

1.70

Under

Betfair

2.10

Bet365

2.00

Betano

2.00

Superbet

2.00

Pinnacle

1.99

Araz over/under 1.5Actual: Under

Over

28.7%

@ 4.54+8.4%

Under

71.3%

@ 1.16-8.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betfair

5.00

Marathonbet

4.75

Bet365

4.50

1xBet

4.30

Superbet

4.15

Under

1xBet

1.18

Bet365

1.17

Superbet

1.15

Marathonbet

1.14

Betfair

1.14

Araz over/under 2.5Actual: Under

Over

9.2%

@ 9.95-0.1%

Under

90.8%

@ 1.02+0.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

10.50

Betfair

10.00

Superbet

10.00

Marathonbet

9.30

Under

Betfair

1.03

Bet365

1.02

Superbet

1.01

Araz over/under 3.5Actual: Under

Over

2.3%

@ 21.00-97.7%

Under

97.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

21.00

Under

No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Neftchi Baku, so a minus line means Neftchi Baku give that many goals of a start and Araz receive them. At -1, Neftchi Baku must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Neftchi Baku win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.

Handicap -2 (Neftchi Baku)Actual: Neftchi Baku

Neftchi Baku -2

17.5%

@ 4.36-3.0%

Draw -2

18.0%

@ 4.34-2.6%

Araz +2

64.5%

@ 1.52+5.6%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Betfair

4.50

Bet365

4.33

Marathonbet

4.25

Draw

Marathonbet

4.35

Betfair

4.33

Bet365

4.33

Away

Bet365

1.53

Marathonbet

1.52

Betfair

1.50

Handicap -1 (Neftchi Baku)Actual: Neftchi Baku

Neftchi Baku -1

35.5%

@ 2.28-3.4%

Draw -1

22.5%

@ 3.41-3.5%

Araz +1

41.9%

@ 2.53+6.8%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Betfair

2.30

Bet365

2.30

Marathonbet

2.24

Draw

Bet365

3.60

Marathonbet

3.34

Betfair

3.30

Away

Betfair

2.63

Marathonbet

2.55

Bet365

2.40

Handicap +1 (Neftchi Baku)Actual: Neftchi Baku

Neftchi Baku +1

81.4%

@ 1.08-1.5%

Draw +1

11.5%

@ 8.00+0.3%

Araz -1

7.1%

@ 15.00+1.1%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

1.08

Draw

Bet365

8.00

Away

Bet365

15.00

Handicap +2 (Neftchi Baku)Actual: Neftchi Baku

Neftchi Baku +2

92.9%

@ 1.02-0.3%

Draw +2

5.1%

@ 21.00+0.6%

Araz -2

2.0%

@ 41.00-0.3%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

1.02

Draw

Bet365

21.00

Away

Bet365

41.00

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Neftchi Baku

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.2

Avg scored

0.8

Avg conceded

0.4

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.87	0.37	1.15	0.46	0.65	0.29
vs Stronger (3)	0.33	1.00	0.50	1.50	0.00	0.00
vs Similar (12)	0.67	0.33	1.00	0.40	0.43	0.29
vs Weaker (15)	1.13	0.27	1.50	0.17	0.89	0.33
Clean sheet %	70% (+39pp vs league)

This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Araz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.0

Avg scored

0.5

Avg conceded

0.5

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.53	0.70	0.65	0.35	0.38	1.15
vs Stronger (2)	0.00	2.50	-	-	0.00	2.50
vs Similar (22)	0.50	0.68	0.58	0.42	0.40	1.00
vs Weaker (6)	0.83	0.17	0.80	0.20	1.00	0.00
Clean sheet %	53% (+22pp vs league)

This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over

Over 0.5

73.7%

@ 1.34+5.0%

Under 0.5

26.3%

@ 2.93-5.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.38

Bet365

1.36

William Hil

1.36

Pinnacle

1.34

Superbet

1.33

Under

Betfair

3.20

Pinnacle

3.01

Bet365

3.00

Marathonbet

2.97

1xBet

2.97

Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

36.5%

@ 2.63+1.5%

Under 1.5

63.5%

@ 1.41-1.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betfair

2.75

William Hil

2.70

Bet365

2.62

Pinnacle

2.61

Marathonbet

2.60

Under

Pinnacle

1.44

Bet365

1.44

Betfair

1.40

1xBet

1.40

Superbet

1.40

Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

14.6%

@ 6.38+0.1%

Under 2.5

85.4%

@ 1.07-0.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

6.55

Marathonbet

6.55

William Hil

6.50

Bet365

6.50

Betfair

6.50

Under

William Hil

1.10

Bet365

1.10

Betfair

1.08

Superbet

1.07

Marathonbet

1.05

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.

Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over

Over

60.1%

@ 1.60+2.3%

Under

39.9%

@ 2.19-2.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.65

Superbet

1.61

1xBet

1.59

Pinnacle

1.58

Marathonbet

1.57

Under

Pinnacle

2.29

1xBet

2.22

Marathonbet

2.16

Superbet

2.15

Betano

2.12

Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over

Over

22.1%

@ 3.95-1.1%

Under

77.9%

@ 1.19+1.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

4.10

1xBet

3.80

Under

1xBet

1.21

Marathonbet

1.17

Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over

Over

6.2%

Under

93.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Araz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under

Over

32.6%

@ 2.96+1.8%

Under

67.4%

@ 1.32-1.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

3.04

Betano

3.00

Superbet

2.92

1xBet

2.90

Under

1xBet

1.35

Betano

1.34

Superbet

1.31

Marathonbet

1.30

Araz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under

Over

6.5%

@ 9.90-2.8%

Under

93.5%

@ 1.01+2.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

10.00

Marathonbet

9.80

Under

1xBet

1.01

Araz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.8%

Under

99.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Neftchi Baku

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.0

Avg scored

1.3

Avg conceded

0.7

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.23	0.73	1.31	0.92	1.18	0.59
vs Stronger (3)	0.67	1.67	1.00	1.50	0.00	2.00
vs Similar (12)	0.92	0.67	1.00	0.80	0.86	0.57
vs Weaker (15)	1.60	0.60	1.67	0.83	1.56	0.44
Clean sheet %	47% (+15pp vs league)

This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Araz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.6

Avg scored

0.6

Avg conceded

1.0

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.70	0.97	0.59	0.82	0.85	1.15
vs Stronger (2)	0.50	3.00	-	-	0.50	3.00
vs Similar (22)	0.68	1.00	0.50	1.08	0.90	0.90
vs Weaker (6)	0.83	0.17	0.80	0.20	1.00	0.00
Clean sheet %	40% (+9pp vs league)

This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over

Over 0.5

81.0%

@ 1.20+4.9%

Under 0.5

19.0%

@ 3.83-4.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

William Hil

1.25

Bet365

1.22

Superbet

1.21

1xBet

1.16

Marathonbet

1.16

Under

Marathonbet

4.05

1xBet

4.05

Bet365

4.00

Superbet

3.55

William Hil

3.50

Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under

Over 1.5

50.1%

@ 2.04+4.8%

Under 1.5

49.9%

@ 1.69-4.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

William Hil

2.20

Superbet

2.10

Bet365

2.00

Marathonbet

1.99

1xBet

1.99

Under

Bet365

1.73

Betano

1.72

Marathonbet

1.71

1xBet

1.71

Superbet

1.65

Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

22.6%

@ 4.29+1.3%

Under 2.5

77.4%

@ 1.16-1.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

William Hil

4.60

Bet365

4.33

Marathonbet

4.20

1xBet

4.20

Superbet

4.10

Under

Bet365

1.20

William Hil

1.17

Marathonbet

1.15

1xBet

1.15

Superbet

1.15

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.

Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over

Over

67.7%

@ 1.42+2.8%

Under

32.3%

@ 2.62-2.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

1.44

1xBet

1.40

Under

1xBet

2.75

Superbet

2.50

Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under

Over

31.9%

@ 2.84-0.2%

Under

68.1%

@ 1.34+0.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

2.88

1xBet

2.80

Under

1xBet

1.36

Marathonbet

1.33

Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under

Over

11.9%

@ 7.20-0.9%

Under

88.1%

@ 1.05+0.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

7.20

Under

1xBet

1.05

Araz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under

Over

39.4%

@ 2.49+2.7%

Under

60.6%

@ 1.45-2.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

2.50

Marathonbet

2.50

Superbet

2.47

Under

1xBet

1.47

Superbet

1.44

Marathonbet

1.43

Araz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under

Over

10.3%

@ 9.50+0.7%

Under

89.7%

@ 1.01-0.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

9.50

Under

1xBet

1.01

Araz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under

Over

1.5%

Under

98.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals	99.2%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Under 7.5	98.7%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals	98.5%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals	97.7%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Under 6.5	96.3%	1.01	1xBet 1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	+2.6%	✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals	93.8%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals	93.5%	1.01	1xBet 1.01	-	-	-	-	+2.8%	✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap	92.9%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	-0.3%	✓ Hit
Under 5.5	91.0%	1.03	Bet365 1.04	Betfair 1.03	1xBet 1.03	-	-	-0.3%	✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals	90.8%	1.02	Betfair 1.03	Bet365 1.02	Superbet 1.01	-	-	+0.1%	✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals	89.7%	1.01	1xBet 1.01	-	-	-	-	-0.7%	✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals	88.1%	1.05	1xBet 1.05	-	-	-	-	+0.9%	✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals	86.4%	1.10	Bet365 1.12	Betfair 1.10	Superbet 1.10	1xBet 1.09	-	+2.8%	✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals	85.8%	1.11	Bet365 1.11	1xBet 1.11	Betfair 1.10	-	-	+1.7%	✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals	85.4%	1.07	William Hil 1.10	Bet365 1.10	Betfair 1.08	Superbet 1.07	Marathonbet 1.05	-0.1%	✗ Miss
Over 1.5	82.0%	1.23	Betfair 1.25	Bet365 1.25	Betano 1.25	Superbet 1.24	Unibet 1.23	+7.9%	✓ Hit
Home or Draw	81.4%	1.07	Betano 1.12	William Hil 1.11	Superbet 1.09	Unibet 1.08	Bet365 1.08	-3.7%	✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap	81.4%	1.08	Bet365 1.08	-	-	-	-	-1.5%	✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals	81.0%	1.20	William Hil 1.25	Bet365 1.22	Superbet 1.21	1xBet 1.16	Marathonbet 1.16	+4.9%	✓ Hit
Under 4.5	80.5%	1.09	Bet365 1.12	Betfair 1.10	Superbet 1.09	Marathonbet 1.08	1xBet 1.08	-3.4%	✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals	77.9%	1.19	1xBet 1.21	Marathonbet 1.17	-	-	-	+1.1%	✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals	77.4%	1.16	Bet365 1.20	William Hil 1.17	Marathonbet 1.15	1xBet 1.15	Superbet 1.15	-1.3%	✓ Hit
Home or Away	76.7%	1.18	William Hil 1.25	Betano 1.20	Superbet 1.19	Bet365 1.18	Unibet 1.17	-1.0%	✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals	73.7%	1.34	Betano 1.38	Bet365 1.36	William Hil 1.36	Pinnacle 1.34	Superbet 1.33	+5.0%	✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals	71.3%	1.16	1xBet 1.18	Bet365 1.17	Superbet 1.15	Marathonbet 1.14	Betfair 1.14	-8.4%	✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

QAR (25)

€25m

SF (24)

€17m

NB (23)

€13m

ZIR (23)

€12m

TUR (23)

€10m

SUM (22)

€9m

IF (18)

€6m

ARA (19)

€6m

KAP (24)

€5m

QAB (18)

€5m

SB (15)

€4m

ŞF (15)

€4m

Neftchi Baku's squad is €7m more valuable than Araz's (€13m vs €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

QAR (9)

€8m

ZIR (10)

€6m

SF (7)

€5m

NB (7)

€4m

SUM (7)

€4m

TUR (7)

€3m

IF (7)

€3m

ARA (7)

€3m

SB (5)

€1m

QAB (5)

€1m

ŞF (6)

€1m

KAP (8)

€1m

Neftchi Baku's attack is €1m more valuable than Araz's (€4m vs €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

SF (7)

€5m

QAR (3)

€3m

NB (6)

€3m

SUM (4)

€2m

TUR (4)

€2m

ARA (5)

€2m

KAP (6)

€2m

ŞF (3)

€1m

ZIR (3)

€1m

QAB (3)

€1m

IF (2)

€1m

SB (2)

€0m

Neftchi Baku's midfield is €1m more valuable than Araz's (€3m vs €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

QAR (13)

€14m

SF (10)

€7m

NB (10)

€6m

ZIR (10)

€6m

TUR (12)

€5m

SUM (11)

€4m

IF (9)

€3m

QAB (10)

€3m

KAP (10)

€3m

SB (8)

€3m

ARA (7)

€2m

ŞF (6)

€2m

Neftchi Baku's defence is €5m more valuable than Araz's (€6m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings

NB wins

Draws

ARA wins

Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Neftchi Baku vs Araz · H/A from NB

Date	H/A	Game	Score
11/04/26	H	NB Vs Araz	2-1
01/02/26	A	Araz Vs NB	0-4
19/10/25	H	NB Vs Araz	2-2
29/03/25	H	NB Vs Araz	1-1
26/01/25	A	Araz Vs NB	2-1
01/11/24	H	NB Vs Araz	0-1
24/08/24	A	Araz Vs NB	1-1
13/04/24	H	NB Vs Araz	3-0

Neftchi Baku

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
16/08/26	A	Sumqayıt Vs NB	1-3
23/05/26	A	Kapaz Vs NB	0-1
17/05/26	A	Sabah FA Vs NB	1-2
10/05/26	H	NB Vs Şamaxı FK	3-0
05/05/26	A	Karvan Vs NB	0-3
30/04/26	H	NB Vs Qarabag	2-1
26/04/26	H	NB Vs Qarabag	1-5
17/04/26	A	Zira Vs NB	1-1
11/04/26	H	NB Vs Araz	2-1
05/04/26	A	Sumqayıt Vs NB	1-3

Araz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
15/08/26	H	ARA Vs Imisli FK	0-0
23/05/26	H	ARA Vs Zira	3-2
15/05/26	H	ARA Vs Kapaz	2-0
09/05/26	A	Sumqayıt Vs ARA	2-1
02/05/26	H	ARA Vs Imisli FK	0-1
25/04/26	A	Qabala Vs ARA	1-1
17/04/26	H	ARA Vs Turan	0-3
11/04/26	A	Neftchi Baku Vs ARA	2-1
07/04/26	H	ARA Vs Sabah FA	2-4
18/03/26	A	Şamaxı FK Vs ARA	0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Neftchi Baku

Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa

Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WWWWW	1.66
Home	WWLWW	1.43
Away	DWWWW	1.85

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	44%	35%	52%
AVG goals	2.80	3.17	2.48
Over 1.5 %	76%	74%	78%
Over 2.5 %	56%	61%	52%
Over 3.5 %	34%	39%	30%
Scored	1.70	1.87	1.56
Conceded	1.10	1.30	0.93
BTTS	54%	61%	48%
Clean Sheet	32%	30%	33%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

Araz

Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa

Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LLWWD	1.32
Home	LLWWD	1.62
Away	LWLDL	1.00

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	34%	46%	21%
AVG goals	2.72	2.46	3.00
Over 1.5 %	80%	73%	88%
Over 2.5 %	48%	42%	54%
Over 3.5 %	28%	23%	33%
Scored	1.12	1.15	1.08
Conceded	1.60	1.31	1.92
BTTS	50%	38%	62%
Clean Sheet	28%	35%	21%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

🏆 17. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Zira	3	9	100%	3.0	6	1	+5	2.3	67%	33%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	12	6	1	6	2.0	0.3	-
2	Neftchi Baku	3	6	67%	2.0	8	2	+6	3.3	67%	67%	67%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	13	4	3	6	2.7	0.7	-
3	Qarabag	2	6	100%	3.0	4	1	+3	2.5	50%	50%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	25	8	3	14	2.0	0.5	-
4	Sabah FA	2	6	100%	3.0	3	0	+3	1.5	50%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	17	5	5	7	1.5	0.0	-
5	Turan	3	4	33%	1.3	1	1	+0	0.7	0%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	10	3	2	5	0.3	0.3	-
6	Imisli FK	3	4	33%	1.3	2	3	-1	1.7	33%	33%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	6	3	1	3	0.7	1.0	-
7	Kapaz	2	3	50%	1.5	1	2	-1	1.5	50%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	5	1	2	3	0.5	1.0	-
8	Safa Baku	3	3	33%	1.0	1	3	-2	1.3	33%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	4	1	0	3	0.3	1.0	-
9	Şamaxı FK	3	2	0%	0.7	1	3	-2	1.3	33%	33%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	4	1	1	2	0.3	1.0	-
10	Qabala	3	1	0%	0.3	0	2	-2	0.7	0%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	5	1	1	3	0.0	0.7	-
11	Araz	3	1	0%	0.3	0	6	-6	2.0	33%	33%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	6	3	2	2	0.0	2.0	-
12	Sumqayıt	2	0	0%	0.0	1	4	-3	2.5	50%	50%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	9	4	2	4	0.5	2.0	-

Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

← all matches

Neftchi Baku vs Araz Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Neftchi Baku

Araz

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Neftchi Baku

Araz

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Neftchi Baku

Araz

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

Head-to-head

Neftchi Baku

Araz

📊 16. Overall Statistics

🏆 17. League Table

A Pro feature