This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kapaz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.93
1.13
2.00
0.80
1.87
vs Stronger (20)
0.95
2.40
1.40
2.70
0.50
2.10
vs Similar (9)
0.44
1.11
0.60
0.60
0.25
1.75
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
0.00
-
-
6.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.0%
Under 1.5
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.6%
Under 2.5
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.9%
Under 3.5
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.9%
No
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
1-0 ✓
11.8%
2-0
11.0%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
8.7%
3-0
6.2%
0-1
5.5%
3-1
5.5%
Neftchi Baku goals ↓
Kapaz goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
5.5%
2.9%
0.9%
0.2%
1
12%
12%
5.0%
1.5%
0.3%
2
11%
9.6%
4.2%
1.2%
0.3%
3
6.2%
5.5%
2.4%
0.7%
0.2%
4
2.6%
2.3%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Neftchi Baku goals (down), columns = Kapaz goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Araz
2.50
Qarabag
2.17
MOIK
2.00
Neftchi Baku
2.00
Turan
2.00
Sabah FA
1.67
Səbail
1.50
Şamaxı FK
1.50
Imisli FK
1.50
Kapaz
1.50
Qabala
1.50
Mingəçevir
1.50
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.50
Safa Baku
1.00
Zira
1.00
Sumqayıt
0.67
Difai Ağsu
0.50
Baku Sportinq
0.00
Hypers Guba
0.00
Şəmkir
0.00
Ağdaş
0.00
Dinamo Bakı
0.00
Şahdağ
0.00
Cəbrayıl
0.00
Karvan
0.00
Zaqatala
0.00
Şimal
0.00
Neftchi Baku is 0.50 points better than Kapaz in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Turan
4.00
Şamaxı FK
3.50
Imisli FK
2.50
Səbail
2.25
Neftchi Baku
2.20
MOIK
2.00
Hypers Guba
2.00
Safa Baku
2.00
Qabala
2.00
Qarabag
1.83
Araz
1.83
Kapaz
1.75
Sabah FA
1.67
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.50
Şəmkir
1.00
Difai Ağsu
1.00
Cəbrayıl
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Zira
1.00
Şimal
1.00
Sumqayıt
0.33
Baku Sportinq
0.00
Ağdaş
0.00
Dinamo Bakı
0.00
Şahdağ
0.00
Karvan
0.00
Zaqatala
0.00
Neftchi Baku is 0.45 goals better than Kapaz in terms of goals scored per game (2.20 vs 1.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Neftchi Baku
0.60
Qarabag
0.67
Araz
0.67
Kapaz
0.75
Sabah FA
0.83
MOIK
1.00
Səbail
1.00
Imisli FK
1.00
Qabala
1.00
Zaqatala
1.00
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Zira
1.33
Turan
1.50
Mingəçevir
1.50
Sumqayıt
1.67
Şamaxı FK
2.00
Safa Baku
2.00
Karvan
3.00
Şimal
3.00
Baku Sportinq
4.00
Difai Ağsu
4.00
Şahdağ
4.00
Cəbrayıl
5.00
Şəmkir
6.00
Ağdaş
6.00
Dinamo Bakı
6.00
Hypers Guba
7.00
Neftchi Baku is 0.15 goals better than Kapaz in terms of goals conceded per game (0.60 vs 0.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Neftchi Baku or Draw✓ Hit
81.9%
Avg Implied -
56%
26%
18%
covers Neftchi Baku + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku or Kapaz✓ Hit
73.8%
Avg Implied -
56%
26%
18%
covers Neftchi Baku + Kapaz
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kapaz✗ Miss
44.3%
Avg Implied -
56%
26%
18%
covers Draw + Kapaz
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
81.7%
Under
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
50.7%
Under
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
24.3%
Under
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.3%
Under
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
58.4%
Under
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
21.9%
Under
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Neftchi Baku, so a minus line means Neftchi Baku give that many goals of a start and Kapaz receive them. At -1, Neftchi Baku must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Neftchi Baku win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Neftchi Baku)Actual: Kapaz
Neftchi Baku -2
14.0%
Draw -2
17.6%
Kapaz +2
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Neftchi Baku)Actual: Draw
Neftchi Baku -1
31.6%
Draw -1
24.1%
Kapaz +1
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Neftchi Baku)Actual: Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku +1
81.9%
Draw +1
11.9%
Kapaz -1
6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Neftchi Baku)Actual: Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku +2
93.8%
Draw +2
4.7%
Kapaz -2
1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Neftchi Baku
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.60
0.75
0.31
0.36
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (12)
0.17
0.33
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
0.57
1.38
0.38
0.67
0.83
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kapaz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.87
0.53
1.00
0.40
0.73
vs Stronger (20)
0.50
1.00
0.80
1.30
0.20
0.70
vs Similar (9)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.40
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Neftchi Baku
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.75
0.69
0.64
0.71
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.75
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.75
0.33
0.83
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
0.36
1.25
0.38
0.83
0.33
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kapaz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.07
0.60
1.00
0.40
1.13
vs Stronger (20)
0.45
1.40
0.60
1.40
0.30
1.40
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.44
0.60
0.20
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SB (15)
€4m
ŞF (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
Neftchi Baku's squad is €8m more valuable than Kapaz's (€13m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
SB (5)
€1m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
Neftchi Baku's attack is €3m more valuable than Kapaz's (€4m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
SB (2)
€0m
SƏB (1)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
Neftchi Baku's midfield is €1m more valuable than Kapaz's (€3m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
SB (8)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
Neftchi Baku's defence is €4m more valuable than Kapaz's (€6m vs €3m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Qarabag
Zira
Araz
Turan
Sabah FA
Şamaxı FK
Sumqayıt
Səbail