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Neftchi Baku vs Sabah FA Result & Analysis

Date: 19/01/2025
Time: 14:30
Final 1-1
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Vs
38%
28%
34%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Sabah FA
Sabah FA
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Player market rates14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Neftchi Baku win✗ Miss
38.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA win✗ Miss
33.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-631W00D01L22D21W03L60W02L21W11DH·SƏB19/10A·SAB27/10H·ARA01/11H·ŞAM08/11H·ZIR23/11H·QAR01/12H·DIF04/12A·SUM08/12H·KAP15/12A·TUR21/12
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.371.940.941.001.86
vs Stronger (3)0.004.000.003.000.004.50
vs Similar (12)0.921.001.140.710.601.40
vs Weaker (15)2.271.132.880.881.571.43
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Sabah FASabah FA

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D01L22D11D10W11D11D10W13LA·ZIR20/10H·NEF27/10A·SUM03/11H·KAP09/11A·TUR24/11H·SƏB29/11A·TUR03/12H·QAR07/12A·ARA14/12A·ŞAM22/12
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.231.501.361.441.12
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.381.151.171.831.570.57
vs Weaker (17)1.531.291.751.001.331.56
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.6%
Under 1.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.0%
Under 2.5
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.9%
Under 3.5
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.3%
No
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.4%
2-1
8.6%
1-0
8.1%
1-2
8.0%
0-0
7.8%
0-1
7.5%
2-0
6.5%
0-2
5.7%
Neftchi Baku goals ↓
Sabah FA goals →
01234
07.8%7.5%5.7%2.5%0.8%
18.1%13%8.0%3.5%1.1%
26.5%8.6%5.6%2.4%0.8%
33.1%4.0%2.6%1.1%0.4%
41.1%1.4%0.9%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Neftchi Baku goals (down), columns = Sabah FA goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qarabag
2.47
Zira
2.06
Araz
1.61
Turan
1.53
Sabah FA
1.33
Neftchi Baku
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.00
Sumqayıt
0.92
Kapaz
0.89
Səbail
0.61
Neftchi Baku is 0.14 points worse than Sabah FA in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.33).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.39
Zira
1.64
Sabah FA
1.39
Turan
1.25
Neftchi Baku
1.08
Araz
0.94
Şamaxı FK
0.89
Sumqayıt
0.86
Səbail
0.78
Kapaz
0.78
Neftchi Baku is 0.31 goals worse than Sabah FA in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.39).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Qarabag
0.53
Zira
0.75
Araz
0.81
Turan
1.08
Sabah FA
1.28
Şamaxı FK
1.28
Neftchi Baku
1.36
Sumqayıt
1.47
Səbail
1.64
Kapaz
1.81
Neftchi Baku is 0.08 goals worse than Sabah FA in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 1.28).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D01L22D10W01L30W02L20W10WH·SƏB19/10A·SAB27/10H·ARA01/11H·ŞAM08/11H·ZIR23/11H·QAR01/12H·DIF04/12A·SUM08/12H·KAP15/12A·TUR21/12
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.671.060.380.501.00
vs Stronger (3)0.002.000.001.000.002.50
vs Similar (12)0.580.330.710.140.400.60
vs Weaker (15)1.130.671.500.500.710.86
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Sabah FASabah FA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W00D00D11D00D10W11D00D00D11DA·ZIR20/10H·NEF27/10A·SUM03/11H·KAP09/11A·TUR24/11H·SƏB29/11A·TUR03/12H·QAR07/12A·ARA14/12A·ŞAM22/12
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.630.860.500.620.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.460.460.500.500.430.43
vs Weaker (17)0.940.761.120.500.781.00
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W00D00D00D11D02L30W00D01L01LH·SƏB19/10A·SAB27/10H·ARA01/11H·ŞAM08/11H·ZIR23/11H·QAR01/12H·DIF04/12A·SUM08/12H·KAP15/12A·TUR21/12
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.700.880.560.500.86
vs Stronger (3)0.002.000.002.000.002.00
vs Similar (12)0.330.670.430.570.200.80
vs Weaker (15)1.130.471.380.380.860.57
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Sabah FASabah FA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D01L11D11D00D00D11D10W02LA·ZIR20/10H·NEF27/10A·SUM03/11H·KAP09/11A·TUR24/11H·SƏB29/11A·TUR03/12H·QAR07/12A·ARA14/12A·ŞAM22/12
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.600.640.860.810.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.920.690.671.331.140.14
vs Weaker (17)0.590.530.620.500.560.56
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.571.1%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Sabah FA · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Veljko Simić75%
Joy Lance Mickels50%
Christian Nwachukwu33%
Steve Solvet25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Xander Severina25%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev25%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Aleksey Isayev0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Veljko Simić25%
Ivan Lepinjica25%
Joy Lance Mickels25%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Aleksey Isayev0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Xander Severina0%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev0%
Christian Nwachukwu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tymoteusz Puchacz50%
Aleksey Isayev50%
Akim Zedadka25%
Joy Lance Mickels25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev25%
Veljko Simić0%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Xander Severina0%
Christian Nwachukwu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joy Lance Mickels50%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev50%
Christian Nwachukwu33%
Aleksey Isayev25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Xander Severina25%
Veljko Simić0%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Neftchi Baku's squad is €4m less valuable than Sabah FA's (€13m vs €17m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Neftchi Baku and Sabah FA have a similar attack value (both €4m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Neftchi Baku's midfield is €3m less valuable than Sabah FA's (€3m vs €5m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Neftchi Baku and Sabah FA have a similar defence value (both €6m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
NB wins
3
Draws
4
SF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Neftchi Baku vs Sabah FA · H/A from NB
DateH/AGameScore
27/10/24ASabah FA Vs NB0-0
18/08/24HNB Vs Sabah FA0-2
25/05/24HNB Vs Sabah FA0-1
21/01/24ASabah FA Vs NB0-0
29/10/23HNB Vs Sabah FA0-1
20/08/23ASabah FA Vs NB1-1
28/05/23HNB Vs Sabah FA1-0
26/01/23ASabah FA Vs NB2-0

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/12/24ATuran Vs NB1-1
15/12/24HNB Vs Kapaz2-1
08/12/24ASumqayıt Vs NB2-0
04/12/24HNB Vs Difai Ağsu6-0
01/12/24HNB Vs Qarabag0-3
23/11/24HNB Vs Zira2-1
08/11/24HNB Vs Şamaxı FK2-2
01/11/24HNB Vs Araz0-1
27/10/24ASabah FA Vs NB0-0
19/10/24HNB Vs Səbail3-1

Sabah FASabah FA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/12/24AŞamaxı FK Vs SF3-1
14/12/24AAraz Vs SF0-1
07/12/24HSF Vs Qarabag1-1
03/12/24ATuran Vs SF1-1
29/11/24HSF Vs Səbail1-0
24/11/24ATuran Vs SF1-1
09/11/24HSF Vs Kapaz2-2
03/11/24ASumqayıt Vs SF1-0
27/10/24HSF Vs Neftchi Baku0-0
20/10/24AZira Vs SF1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWD1.36
HomeDWLWW1.69
AwayLLDLD1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%50%21%
AVG goals2.642.772.50
Over 1.5 %74%77%71%
Over 2.5 %44%54%33%
Over 3.5 %26%27%25%
Scored1.361.691.00
Conceded1.281.081.50
BTTS44%46%42%
Clean Sheet30%31%29%
Corners---
Cards---
Sabah FA
Sabah FA
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 2 Wins / 6 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDWL1.56
HomeDDDWD1.52
AwayLDDWL1.59
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%39%48%
AVG goals2.562.652.48
Over 1.5 %70%74%67%
Over 2.5 %38%43%33%
Over 3.5 %28%35%22%
Scored1.381.481.30
Conceded1.181.171.19
BTTS46%52%41%
Clean Sheet30%30%30%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QarabagQarabag3689
78%
2.5
8619+67
2.9
78%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.40.5
-
2ZiraZira3674
64%
2.1
5927+32
2.4
67%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.60.8
-
3ArazAraz3658
42%
1.6
3429+5
1.8
53%
17%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3220.90.8
-
4TuranTuran3655
39%
1.5
4539+6
2.3
64%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.21.1
-
5Sabah FASabah FA3648
28%
1.3
5046+4
2.7
75%
42%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5571.41.3
-
6Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3643
28%
1.2
3949-10
2.4
75%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.11.4
-
7Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3636
25%
1.0
3246-14
2.2
61%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.3
-
8SumqayıtSumqayıt3633
25%
0.9
3153-22
2.3
61%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4240.91.5
-
9KapazKapaz3632
22%
0.9
2865-37
2.6
67%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1230.81.8
-
10SəbailSəbail3622
11%
0.6
2859-31
2.4
67%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
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0%
1
0010.81.6
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Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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