Neftchi Baku’s 5-game winning streak and a 5-0 demolition of Araz give the model a clear edge, reflected in a 72 % chance of a home win. The model picks a 2-0 victory for Neftchi, the most likely scoreline at 12.7 %. With an expected total of 3.0 goals, the most probable total is 2 goals, a 23 % chance. Neftchi’s home form shows 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded against similar opponents, while Safa, on the road, averages 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. The suggested selections include Away under 3.5 goals at 99.3 %, Under 7.5 at 98.7 %, Home +2 handicap at 97.2 %, Under 6.5 at 96.4 %, Away under 2.5 goals at 96.1 %, Under 5.5 at 91.2 %, Home or Draw at 90.6 %, and Home +1 handicap also at 90.6 %. The probabilities for the main outcomes are 72 % for a home win, 19 % for a draw, and 9 % for an away win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Neftchi Baku win
72.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
18.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku win
9.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Neftchi Baku
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.00
2.69
1.23
1.71
0.82
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.67
1.50
3.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
1.67
0.75
2.60
0.80
1.00
0.71
vs Weaker (15)
2.73
0.87
3.17
1.00
2.44
0.78
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Safa Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Safa Baku
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.87
1.64
0.79
1.75
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.46
0.69
1.83
0.67
1.14
0.71
vs Weaker (17)
1.88
1.00
1.50
0.88
2.22
1.11
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.8%
Under 1.5
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.1%
Under 2.5
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.7%
Under 3.5
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
47.7%
No
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.7%
1-0
10.1%
3-0
9.9%
2-1
9.3%
1-1
8.8%
3-1
7.2%
4-0
5.8%
0-0
5.5%
Neftchi Baku goals ↓
Safa Baku goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
2.6%
1.3%
0.3%
0.1%
1
10%
8.8%
2.9%
0.7%
0.1%
2
13%
9.3%
3.4%
0.8%
0.2%
3
9.9%
7.2%
2.7%
0.6%
0.1%
4
5.8%
4.2%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Neftchi Baku goals (down), columns = Safa Baku goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Safa Baku
1.09
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Neftchi Baku is 0.70 points better than Safa Baku in terms of average points per game (1.79 vs 1.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Safa Baku
1.02
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Neftchi Baku is 0.70 goals better than Safa Baku in terms of goals scored per game (1.73 vs 1.02).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Qarabag
0.82
Turan
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Safa Baku
1.57
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Neftchi Baku is 0.60 goals better than Safa Baku in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Neftchi Baku or Draw
90.8%
Avg Implied -
72%
18%
9%
covers Neftchi Baku + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku or Safa Baku
81.6%
Avg Implied -
72%
18%
9%
covers Neftchi Baku + Safa Baku
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Safa Baku
27.6%
Avg Implied -
72%
18%
9%
covers Draw + Safa Baku
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5
Over
90.3%
Under
9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5
Over
67.6%
Under
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5
Over
41.2%
Under
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 3.5
Over
20.7%
Under
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 0.5
Over
52.0%
Under
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 1.5
Over
16.7%
Under
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 2.5
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 3.5
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Neftchi Baku, so a minus line means Neftchi Baku give that many goals of a start and Safa Baku receive them. At -1, Neftchi Baku must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Neftchi Baku win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Neftchi Baku)
Neftchi Baku -2
28.3%
Draw -2
21.6%
Safa Baku +2
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Neftchi Baku)
Neftchi Baku -1
50.0%
Draw -1
22.4%
Safa Baku +1
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Neftchi Baku)
Neftchi Baku +1
90.8%
Draw +1
6.5%
Safa Baku -1
2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Neftchi Baku)
Neftchi Baku +2
97.3%
Draw +2
2.1%
Safa Baku -2
0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Neftchi Baku
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.33
1.38
0.38
0.65
0.29
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (12)
0.92
0.25
1.60
0.20
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (15)
1.13
0.27
1.50
0.17
0.89
0.33
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Safa Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Safa Baku
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.23
0.57
0.21
0.81
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.23
0.33
0.17
0.57
0.29
vs Weaker (17)
0.88
0.24
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.22
Clean sheet %
80% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.5%
Under 0.5
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.8%
Under 1.5
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.2%
Under 2.5
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 HT
Over
54.8%
Under
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.7%
Under
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 0.5 HT
Over
34.7%
Under
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.1%
Under
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Neftchi Baku
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.67
1.31
0.85
1.06
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
1.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.60
0.57
0.43
vs Weaker (15)
1.60
0.60
1.67
0.83
1.56
0.44
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Safa Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Safa Baku
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.63
1.07
0.57
0.94
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.46
1.50
0.50
0.57
0.43
vs Weaker (17)
1.00
0.76
0.75
0.62
1.22
0.89
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.4%
Under 0.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
42.7%
Under 1.5
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.1%
Under 2.5
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 2H
Over
56.3%
Under
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 2H
Over
28.5%
Under
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 2H
Over
12.5%
Under
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 0.5 2H
Over
36.1%
Under
63.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.8%
Under
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SB (15)
€4m
ŞF (15)
€4m
Neftchi Baku's squad is €9m more valuable than Safa Baku's (€13m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
SB (5)
€1m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
Neftchi Baku's attack is €3m more valuable than Safa Baku's (€4m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
SB (2)
€0m
Neftchi Baku's midfield is €2m more valuable than Safa Baku's (€3m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
SB (8)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
Neftchi Baku's defence is €4m more valuable than Safa Baku's (€6m vs €3m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zira
Qarabag
Sabah FA
Turan
Imisli FK
Kapaz
Şamaxı FK
Qabala
Araz
Sumqayıt