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Neftchi Baku vs Şamaxı FK Result & Analysis

Date: 16/08/2025
Time: 16:00
Final 1-1
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Vs
48%
27%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Şamaxı FK
Şamaxı FK
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Neftchi Baku win✗ Miss
47.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK win✗ Miss
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L20W24L03L11D22D22D21W30W01LH·SAB02/04A·ŞAM07/04H·ZIR13/04A·QAR19/04A·SAB23/04A·SUM28/04H·KAP04/05A·TUR10/05H·SƏB18/05A·SAB24/05
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.201.531.181.151.23
vs Stronger (3)0.002.330.002.000.003.00
vs Similar (13)1.151.381.141.571.171.17
vs Weaker (14)1.860.792.250.621.331.00
Clean sheet %23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D03L02L21W21W11D11D13L01L01LA·ARA14/03A·ZIR30/03H·NEF07/04A·SUM12/04H·KAP20/04A·TUR25/04H·SƏB03/05A·SAB09/05H·ARA17/05H·QAR24/05
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.430.941.001.141.93
vs Stronger (14)0.791.930.711.290.862.57
vs Similar (15)0.931.000.500.751.431.29
vs Weaker (1)6.001.006.001.00--
Clean sheet %13% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%015%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.0%
Under 1.5
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.6%
Under 2.5
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.4%
Under 3.5
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.2%
No
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.9%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
9.3%
2-0
8.5%
0-0
7.6%
1-2
6.6%
0-1
6.1%
2-2
5.3%
Neftchi Baku goals ↓
Şamaxı FK goals →
01234
07.6%6.1%4.1%1.5%0.4%
19.3%13%6.6%2.5%0.7%
28.5%9.5%5.3%2.0%0.6%
34.6%5.1%2.9%1.1%0.3%
41.8%2.1%1.2%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Neftchi Baku goals (down), columns = Şamaxı FK goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Karvan
0.45
Mingəçevir
0.00
Neftchi Baku is 0.64 points better than Şamaxı FK in terms of average points per game (1.79 vs 1.15).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Karvan
0.70
Mingəçevir
0.00
Neftchi Baku is 0.79 goals better than Şamaxı FK in terms of goals scored per game (1.73 vs 0.94).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Turan
0.82
Qarabag
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Mingəçevir
2.00
Karvan
2.00
Neftchi Baku is 0.24 goals better than Şamaxı FK in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.21).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W21W03L11D01L10W21W20W00DH·SAB02/04A·ŞAM07/04H·ZIR13/04A·QAR19/04A·SAB23/04A·SUM28/04H·KAP04/05A·TUR10/05H·SƏB18/05A·SAB24/05
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.571.000.410.620.77
vs Stronger (3)0.001.330.000.500.003.00
vs Similar (13)0.690.540.710.570.670.50
vs Weaker (14)1.140.431.500.250.670.67
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L00D01L01L11D00D10W11D01L00DA·ARA14/03A·ZIR30/03H·NEF07/04A·SUM12/04H·KAP20/04A·TUR25/04H·SƏB03/05A·SAB09/05H·ARA17/05H·QAR24/05
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.670.560.500.710.86
vs Stronger (14)0.640.860.430.570.861.14
vs Similar (15)0.400.470.250.380.570.57
vs Weaker (1)4.001.004.001.00--
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W03L00D00D21W12L00D10W01LH·SAB02/04A·ŞAM07/04H·ZIR13/04A·QAR19/04A·SAB23/04A·SUM28/04H·KAP04/05A·TUR10/05H·SƏB18/05A·SAB24/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.630.530.760.540.46
vs Stronger (3)0.001.000.001.500.000.00
vs Similar (13)0.460.850.431.000.500.67
vs Weaker (14)0.710.360.750.380.670.33
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W03L01L20W10W11D01L02L00D01LA·ARA14/03A·ZIR30/03H·NEF07/04A·SUM12/04H·KAP20/04A·TUR25/04H·SƏB03/05A·SAB09/05H·ARA17/05H·QAR24/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.770.380.500.431.07
vs Stronger (14)0.141.070.290.710.001.43
vs Similar (15)0.530.530.250.380.860.71
vs Weaker (1)2.000.002.000.00--
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.570.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
Neftchi Baku's squad is €9m more valuable than Şamaxı FK's (€13m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
Neftchi Baku's attack is €3m more valuable than Şamaxı FK's (€4m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
Neftchi Baku's midfield is €1m more valuable than Şamaxı FK's (€3m vs €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
Neftchi Baku's defence is €5m more valuable than Şamaxı FK's (€6m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
NB wins
3
Draws
0
ŞF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Neftchi Baku vs Şamaxı FK · H/A from NB
DateH/AGameScore
07/04/25AŞamaxı FK Vs NB0-2
31/01/25HNB Vs Şamaxı FK1-0
08/11/24HNB Vs Şamaxı FK2-2
31/08/24AŞamaxı FK Vs NB0-0
14/05/23HNB Vs Şamaxı FK1-1
12/03/23AŞamaxı FK Vs NB0-1
23/12/22HNB Vs Şamaxı FK3-0
07/08/22AŞamaxı FK Vs NB0-1

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/05/25ASabah FA Vs NB1-0
18/05/25HNB Vs Səbail3-0
10/05/25ATuran Vs NB1-2
04/05/25HNB Vs Kapaz2-2
28/04/25ASumqayıt Vs NB2-2
23/04/25ASabah FA Vs NB1-1
19/04/25AQarabag Vs NB3-0
13/04/25HNB Vs Zira2-4
07/04/25AŞamaxı FK Vs NB0-2
02/04/25HNB Vs Sabah FA1-2

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/05/25HŞF Vs Qarabag0-1
17/05/25HŞF Vs Araz0-1
09/05/25ASabah FA Vs ŞF3-1
03/05/25HŞF Vs Səbail1-1
25/04/25ATuran Vs ŞF1-1
20/04/25HŞF Vs Kapaz2-1
12/04/25ASumqayıt Vs ŞF1-2
07/04/25HŞF Vs Neftchi Baku0-2
30/03/25AZira Vs ŞF3-0
14/03/25AAraz Vs ŞF1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWWL1.38
HomeDLLDW1.58
AwayLDDWL1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%42%29%
AVG goals2.602.652.54
Over 1.5 %76%73%79%
Over 2.5 %48%50%46%
Over 3.5 %22%23%21%
Scored1.341.621.04
Conceded1.261.041.50
BTTS48%50%46%
Clean Sheet28%31%25%
Corners---
Cards---
Şamaxı FK
Şamaxı FK
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLLL1.34
HomeLWDLL1.36
AwayDLWDL1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%36%36%
AVG goals2.542.083.00
Over 1.5 %66%52%80%
Over 2.5 %44%36%52%
Over 3.5 %28%20%36%
Scored1.361.161.56
Conceded1.180.921.44
BTTS46%40%52%
Clean Sheet28%28%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Sabah FASabah FA3378
73%
2.4
7525+50
3.0
76%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5572.30.8
-
2QarabagQarabag3369
64%
2.1
7127+44
3.0
76%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.20.8
-
3Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3359
48%
1.8
5732+25
2.7
73%
55%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.71.0
-
4TuranTuran3359
52%
1.8
4427+17
2.2
67%
45%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.30.8
-
5ZiraZira3353
39%
1.6
4336+7
2.4
70%
42%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.31.1
-
6ArazAraz3346
39%
1.4
4458-14
3.1
88%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3221.31.8
-
7SumqayıtSumqayıt3238
34%
1.2
4249-7
2.8
78%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4241.31.5
-
8Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3338
27%
1.2
3140-9
2.2
67%
45%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.2
-
9Imisli FKImisli FK3234
22%
1.1
2340-17
2.0
53%
31%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3130.71.2
-
10QabalaQabala3430
24%
0.9
3449-15
2.4
68%
41%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1131.01.4
-
11KapazKapaz3327
24%
0.8
2561-36
2.6
76%
45%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1230.81.8
-
12KarvanKarvan3315
9%
0.5
2366-43
2.7
82%
48%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.72.0
-
13MingəçevirMingəçevir10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
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Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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