This Azerbaijan Premier League match is finely balanced, with Neftchi Baku's recent 5-game winning streak against Kapaz a notable storyline. The model's selection is the home win, which has a 40% probability, closely followed by a draw at 31% and an away win at 29%. The expected total goals is 2.3, with the most likely score being a 1-1 draw at 14.5%. The most likely total number of goals is 2.
Neftchi Baku has been scoring 2 goals on average at home against weaker opponents, while conceding just 1. Meanwhile, Seamaxi FK has been scoring 0.6 goals on average away against stronger opponents and conceding 0.8. The model's selection is the Under 3.5 goals, which has an 80.3% probability. The model also suggests the home win as its selection, with a 40% probability, and the draw, with a 31% probability. The home side's home win percentage is 40%, the draw percentage is 31%, and the away win percentage is 29%.
Results analysis
Neftchi Baku's win extends their 5-game winning run, having beaten Kapaz 1-0 in their previous match. The final score was 3-0 in favour of the home team, securing a convincing home win. The model correctly predicted the result, backing Neftchi Baku to win with a 40% pre-match probability. The model's selection, a home win, came in as expected. The suggested picks largely performed well, with the model suggesting an Under 3.5 total goals, which hit at 80.3% probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Neftchi Baku win✓ Hit
39.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK win✗ Miss
29.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Neftchi Baku
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.10
1.93
1.27
1.80
0.93
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.67
1.50
3.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (13)
1.31
1.00
1.43
1.00
1.17
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
2.57
0.86
2.67
1.00
2.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Şamaxı FK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.07
0.88
1.31
0.86
0.79
vs Stronger (16)
0.75
1.31
0.89
1.22
0.57
1.43
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.85
0.86
1.43
1.17
0.17
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.8%
Under 1.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.9%
Under 2.5
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.7%
Under 3.5
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.2%
No
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.5%
1-0
11.4%
0-1
9.2%
2-1
8.2%
2-0
8.0%
1-2
6.8%
0-2
5.4%
Neftchi Baku goals ↓
Şamaxı FK goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
9.2%
5.4%
1.9%
0.5%
1
11%
14%
6.8%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.0%
8.2%
4.2%
1.5%
0.4%
3
3.3%
3.4%
1.8%
0.6%
0.2%
4
1.0%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Neftchi Baku goals (down), columns = Şamaxı FK goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Karvan
0.45
Mingəçevir
0.00
Neftchi Baku is 0.64 points better than Şamaxı FK in terms of average points per game (1.79 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Karvan
0.70
Mingəçevir
0.00
Neftchi Baku is 0.79 goals better than Şamaxı FK in terms of goals scored per game (1.73 vs 0.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Turan
0.82
Qarabag
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Mingəçevir
2.00
Karvan
2.00
Neftchi Baku is 0.24 goals better than Şamaxı FK in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.21).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Neftchi Baku
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.37
0.93
0.47
0.53
0.27
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.31
0.71
0.43
0.33
0.17
vs Weaker (14)
1.00
0.29
1.33
0.17
0.75
0.38
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Şamaxı FK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.30
0.31
0.38
0.43
0.21
vs Stronger (16)
0.44
0.31
0.44
0.33
0.43
0.29
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.31
0.14
0.43
0.50
0.17
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Neftchi Baku
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.73
1.00
0.80
1.27
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
1.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.69
0.71
0.57
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (14)
1.57
0.57
1.33
0.83
1.75
0.38
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Şamaxı FK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.56
0.94
0.43
0.57
vs Stronger (16)
0.31
1.00
0.44
0.89
0.14
1.14
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.54
0.71
1.00
0.67
0.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
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Sabah FA
Qarabag
Turan
Zira
Araz
Sumqayıt
Imisli FK
Qabala
Kapaz
Karvan
Mingəçevir