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Neftchi Baku vs Turan Result & Analysis

Date: 28/04/2024
Time: 13:45
Final 3-0
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Vs
49%
28%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Turan
Turan
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Neftchi Baku win✓ Hit
49.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Turan win✗ Miss
23.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L10W11D14L33D30W10W11D30W13LA·ARA13/02H·ZIR18/02A·TUR24/02H·QAR03/03A·KAP09/03H·SƏB15/03A·QAB29/03H·SUM07/04H·ARA13/04A·ZIR20/04
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.101.571.001.121.19
vs Stronger (4)0.502.500.503.000.502.00
vs Similar (14)1.000.861.500.670.621.00
vs Weaker (12)2.000.922.000.672.001.17
Clean sheet %37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TuranTuran

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W00D11D11D20W13L11D20W21W14LH·QAB13/02A·SUM18/02H·NEF24/02A·ZIR02/03H·ARA10/03H·QAR17/03A·SƏB30/03H·SAB06/04A·QAB13/04H·SUM19/04
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.471.811.501.071.43
vs Stronger (7)1.571.711.752.001.331.33
vs Similar (16)1.251.441.561.330.861.57
vs Weaker (7)1.861.292.671.331.251.25
Clean sheet %27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%017%127%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.8%
Under 1.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.3%
Under 2.5
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.7%
Under 3.5
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.3%
No
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
9.4%
0-0
8.9%
0-1
6.5%
1-2
6.1%
3-1
4.9%
Neftchi Baku goals ↓
Turan goals →
01234
08.9%6.5%3.9%1.3%0.3%
111%13%6.1%2.0%0.5%
29.4%9.4%4.7%1.6%0.4%
34.9%4.9%2.5%0.8%0.2%
41.9%1.9%1.0%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Neftchi Baku goals (down), columns = Turan goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qarabag
2.31
Sabah FA
1.61
Zira
1.61
Sumqayıt
1.58
Neftchi Baku
1.56
Turan
1.33
Səbail
1.17
Araz
1.00
Kapaz
0.97
Qabala
0.72
Neftchi Baku is 0.22 points better than Turan in terms of average points per game (1.56 vs 1.33).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.69
Turan
1.47
Neftchi Baku
1.42
Sabah FA
1.39
Səbail
1.39
Kapaz
1.08
Sumqayıt
1.03
Zira
0.92
Araz
0.86
Qabala
0.83
Neftchi Baku is 0.06 goals worse than Turan in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 1.47).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Zira
0.61
Qarabag
1.03
Sumqayıt
1.06
Neftchi Baku
1.11
Sabah FA
1.11
Araz
1.39
Turan
1.47
Səbail
1.67
Qabala
1.78
Kapaz
1.86
Neftchi Baku is 0.36 goals better than Turan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.47).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D00D11D20W10W01L20W11DA·ARA13/02H·ZIR18/02A·TUR24/02H·QAR03/03A·KAP09/03H·SƏB15/03A·QAB29/03H·SUM07/04H·ARA13/04A·ZIR20/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.300.710.140.440.44
vs Stronger (4)0.250.000.000.000.500.00
vs Similar (14)0.500.290.830.170.250.38
vs Weaker (12)0.750.420.830.170.670.67
Clean sheet %73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TuranTuran

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D00D10W00D10W11D10W00D02LH·QAB13/02A·SUM18/02H·NEF24/02A·ZIR02/03H·ARA10/03H·QAR17/03A·SƏB30/03H·SAB06/04A·QAB13/04H·SUM19/04
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.530.560.560.640.50
vs Stronger (7)0.860.861.001.000.670.67
vs Similar (16)0.310.440.330.440.290.43
vs Weaker (7)1.000.430.670.331.250.50
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L00D11D14L22D10W00D10W10W02LA·ARA13/02H·ZIR18/02A·TUR24/02H·QAR03/03A·KAP09/03H·SƏB15/03A·QAB29/03H·SUM07/04H·ARA13/04A·ZIR20/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.800.860.860.690.75
vs Stronger (4)0.252.500.503.000.002.00
vs Similar (14)0.500.570.670.500.380.62
vs Weaker (12)1.250.501.170.501.330.50
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TuranTuran

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D11D01L20W03L00D10W21W12LH·QAB13/02A·SUM18/02H·NEF24/02A·ZIR02/03H·ARA10/03H·QAR17/03A·SƏB30/03H·SAB06/04A·QAB13/04H·SUM19/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.931.250.940.430.93
vs Stronger (7)0.710.860.751.000.670.67
vs Similar (16)0.941.001.220.890.571.14
vs Weaker (7)0.860.862.001.000.000.75
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Neftchi Baku's squad is €3m more valuable than Turan's (€13m vs €10m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Neftchi Baku and Turan have a similar attack value (both €4m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Neftchi Baku and Turan have a similar midfield value (both €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Neftchi Baku's defence is €1m more valuable than Turan's (€6m vs €5m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
4
NB wins
2
Draws
1
TUR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Neftchi Baku vs Turan · H/A from NB
DateH/AGameScore
24/02/24ATuran Vs NB1-1
10/12/23HNB Vs Turan3-2
30/09/23ATuran Vs NB0-1
07/05/23ATuran Vs NB4-0
05/03/23HNB Vs Turan4-0
15/12/22ATuran Vs NB0-1
08/10/22HNB Vs Turan0-0

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/04/24AZira Vs NB3-1
13/04/24HNB Vs Araz3-0
07/04/24HNB Vs Sumqayıt1-1
29/03/24AQabala Vs NB0-1
15/03/24HNB Vs Səbail3-0
09/03/24AKapaz Vs NB3-3
03/03/24HNB Vs Qarabag1-4
24/02/24ATuran Vs NB1-1
18/02/24HNB Vs Zira1-0
13/02/24AAraz Vs NB1-0

TuranTuran

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/04/24HTUR Vs Sumqayıt1-4
13/04/24AQabala Vs TUR1-2
06/04/24HTUR Vs Sabah FA2-0
30/03/24ASəbail Vs TUR1-1
17/03/24HTUR Vs Qarabag1-3
10/03/24HTUR Vs Araz2-0
02/03/24AZira Vs TUR1-1
24/02/24HTUR Vs Neftchi Baku1-1
18/02/24ASumqayıt Vs TUR0-0
13/02/24HTUR Vs Qabala2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWL1.50
HomeWLWDW1.71
AwayLDDWL1.31
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%50%31%
AVG goals2.562.792.35
Over 1.5 %74%83%65%
Over 2.5 %42%50%35%
Over 3.5 %28%29%27%
Scored1.421.671.19
Conceded1.141.121.15
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet36%42%31%
Corners10.2511.509.00
Cards5.005.504.00
Turan
Turan
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWWL1.30
HomeDWLWL1.36
AwayDDDDW1.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%36%32%
AVG goals2.863.242.48
Over 1.5 %86%92%80%
Over 2.5 %58%60%56%
Over 3.5 %38%56%20%
Scored1.441.721.16
Conceded1.421.521.32
BTTS58%64%52%
Clean Sheet28%24%32%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QarabagQarabag3683
72%
2.3
9737+60
3.7
89%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.71.0
-
2ZiraZira3658
44%
1.6
3322+11
1.5
33%
25%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6160.90.6
-
3Sabah FASabah FA3658
47%
1.6
5040+10
2.5
72%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5571.41.1
-
4SumqayıtSumqayıt3657
42%
1.6
3738-1
2.1
56%
33%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4241.01.1
-
5Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3656
44%
1.6
5140+11
2.5
69%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.41.1
-
6TuranTuran3648
36%
1.3
5353+0
2.9
83%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.51.5
-
7SəbailSəbail3642
31%
1.2
5060-10
3.1
81%
64%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.7
-
8ArazAraz3636
25%
1.0
3150-19
2.2
72%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3220.91.4
-
9KapazKapaz3635
25%
1.0
3967-28
2.9
72%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1231.11.9
-
10QabalaQabala3626
19%
0.7
3064-34
2.6
72%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1130.81.8
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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