Neftchi Baku are favoured to win, with a 46% chance of triumph, a 29% draw probability, and a 25% chance for Turan. The model expects 2.5 goals on average, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.6% probability. Neftchi, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, typically scores 2.6 goals and concedes 0.8. Turan, on the road to a similar strength side, averages 1.44 goals scored and 0.67 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.8%), Under 5.5 (95.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.2%), Home +2 handicap (90.0%), and Under 4.5 (88.9%). Both teams have recently lost their opening matches, with Neftchi falling 0-1 to Zira and Turan 0-1 to Kapaz.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Neftchi Baku win
44.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Turan win
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Neftchi Baku
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.00
2.69
1.23
1.71
0.82
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.67
1.50
3.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
1.67
0.75
2.60
0.80
1.00
0.71
vs Weaker (15)
2.73
0.87
3.17
1.00
2.44
0.78
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Turan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.77
1.07
0.80
1.27
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.00
1.00
2.50
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (21)
1.24
0.62
1.08
0.58
1.44
0.67
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.40
1.00
0.00
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.6%
Under 1.5
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
45.7%
Under 2.5
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.3%
Under 3.5
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.3%
No
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
1-0
10.5%
0-0
9.4%
2-1
9.0%
2-0
8.4%
0-1
7.5%
1-2
6.7%
2-2
4.8%
Neftchi Baku goals ↓
Turan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.4%
7.5%
4.7%
1.7%
0.4%
1
10%
14%
6.7%
2.4%
0.6%
2
8.4%
9.0%
4.8%
1.7%
0.5%
3
4.0%
4.3%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.4%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Neftchi Baku goals (down), columns = Turan goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Safa Baku
1.09
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Neftchi Baku and Turan are level in average points per game (both 1.79).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Safa Baku
1.02
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Neftchi Baku is 0.39 goals better than Turan in terms of goals scored per game (1.73 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Qarabag
0.82
Turan
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Safa Baku
1.57
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Neftchi Baku is 0.15 goals worse than Turan in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 0.82).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Neftchi Baku or Draw
73.0%
Avg Implied -
44%
29%
27%
covers Neftchi Baku + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku or Turan
71.0%
Avg Implied -
44%
29%
27%
covers Neftchi Baku + Turan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Turan
56.0%
Avg Implied -
44%
29%
27%
covers Draw + Turan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5
Over
76.1%
Under
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5
Over
41.9%
Under
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5
Over
17.4%
Under
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 3.5
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 0.5
Over
65.7%
Under
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5
Over
29.0%
Under
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 3.5
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Neftchi Baku, so a minus line means Neftchi Baku give that many goals of a start and Turan receive them. At -1, Neftchi Baku must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Neftchi Baku win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Neftchi Baku)
Neftchi Baku -2
8.4%
Draw -2
13.6%
Turan +2
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Neftchi Baku)
Neftchi Baku -1
22.0%
Draw -1
22.1%
Turan +1
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Neftchi Baku)
Neftchi Baku +1
73.0%
Draw +1
16.2%
Turan -1
10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Neftchi Baku)
Neftchi Baku +2
89.2%
Draw +2
7.6%
Turan -2
3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Neftchi Baku
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.33
1.38
0.38
0.65
0.29
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (12)
0.92
0.25
1.60
0.20
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (15)
1.13
0.27
1.50
0.17
0.89
0.33
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Turan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.27
0.60
0.20
0.33
0.33
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.24
0.75
0.08
0.33
0.44
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Neftchi Baku
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.67
1.31
0.85
1.06
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
1.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.60
0.57
0.43
vs Weaker (15)
1.60
0.60
1.67
0.83
1.56
0.44
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Turan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.47
0.60
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.25
1.00
1.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.38
0.33
0.50
1.11
0.22
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.00
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SB (15)
€4m
ŞF (15)
€4m
Neftchi Baku's squad is €3m more valuable than Turan's (€13m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
SB (5)
€1m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
Neftchi Baku and Turan have a similar attack value (both €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
SB (2)
€0m
Neftchi Baku and Turan have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
SB (8)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
Neftchi Baku's defence is €1m more valuable than Turan's (€6m vs €5m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zira
Qarabag
Sabah FA
Imisli FK
Kapaz
Safa Baku
Şamaxı FK
Qabala
Araz
Sumqayıt