This Lithuania: 1 Lyga matchup between Neptūnų Klaipėda and Babrungas is finely balanced, with the home side riding a 3-game winning streak after recently defeating Tauras 2-0. However, Babrungas is coming off a defeat to Dainava, but they've shown resilience in their away form, scoring and conceding 0.5 goals on average against similar opponents.
The model predicts a home win, with a 39% chance of Neptūnų Klaipėda taking the three points, a 29% chance of a draw, and a 32% chance of Babrungas emerging victorious. The expected total goals is 2.6, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, with a 13.8% chance.
Neptūnų Klaipėda has been scoring 0.33 goals and conceding 0.67 at home against similar opponents, whereas Babrungas has been scoring and conceding 0.5 goals away against similar opponents.
The model's selections are Over 1.5, with a 74.1% chance, and Under 3.5, also with a 74.1% chance.
Results analysis
The win by Babrungas extends their run of consecutive victories following a 0-4 away win. This result marks a surprise upset, as Neptūnā Klaipėda was the pre-match favourite, coming in with a 37% probability of winning. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect. Meanwhile, the model's suggested picks were settled, with 'Over 1.5' hitting at a 74.3% probability, but 'Under 3.5' missing. The final score of 0-4 accurately reflects the away team's convincing victory.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Neptūną Klaipėda win✗ Miss
37.4%
Avg Implied 31.5% · @ 2.83
Edge
+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.96
William Hil
2.90
Dafabet
2.90
Marathonbet
2.90
Pinnacle
2.89
Draw✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied 28.8% · @ 3.10
Edge
+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.40
Dafabet
3.20
1xBet
3.12
Marathonbet
3.12
Betfair
3.10
Babrungas win✓ Hit
33.7%
Avg Implied 39.7% · @ 2.25
Edge
-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.50
Betfair
2.30
Dafabet
2.27
Betano
2.27
William Hil
2.25
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Neptūną Klaipėda
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.40
0.87
1.23
0.54
3.29
1.12
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
0.43
0.25
0.25
3.00
0.67
vs Similar (15)
3.07
0.87
1.50
0.67
4.11
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
2.00
1.25
2.00
0.67
2.00
1.60
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Babrungas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.47
1.13
2.62
1.38
2.35
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
3.00
0.50
4.00
0.00
2.67
0.67
vs Weaker (26)
2.38
1.23
2.50
1.50
2.29
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.3%
@ 1.30+4.6%
Under 1.5
25.7%
@ 3.00-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.31
1xBet
1.30
Unibet
1.28
Under
Unibet
3.10
Pinnacle
2.99
1xBet
2.97
Marathonbet
2.92
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.9%
@ 1.94+1.1%
Under 2.5
52.1%
@ 1.71-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.03
1xBet
2.01
Marathonbet
2.01
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.93
Under
Bet365
1.85
Unibet
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.70
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.2%
@ 3.35-0.9%
Under 3.5
73.8%
@ 1.24+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.42
Marathonbet
3.42
Unibet
3.20
Under
Unibet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.9%
@ 1.73+1.9%
No
46.1%
@ 1.87-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
1.78
1xBet
1.77
William Hil
1.75
Unibet
1.72
BetVictor
1.62
No
Unibet
1.97
William Hil
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.86
BetVictor
1.73
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%@ 5.72+6.5%
0-0
8.8%@ 8.25+3.7%
1-0
8.8%@ 7.92+3.5%
2-1
8.4%@ 9.58+4.0%
0-1
8.2%@ 7.00+2.2%
1-2
7.9%@ 8.42+2.9%
2-0
6.7%@ 13.17+3.5%
0-2
5.9%@ 10.00+1.7%
Neptūną Klaipėda goals ↓
Babrungas goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
8.2%
5.9%
2.5%
0.8%
1
8.8%
14%
7.9%
3.3%
1.0%
2
6.7%
8.4%
5.3%
2.2%
0.7%
3
3.0%
3.7%
2.3%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.0%
1.2%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Neptūną Klaipėda goals (down), columns = Babrungas goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Neptūną Klaipėda is 0.43 points worse than Babrungas in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 2.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Neptūną Klaipėda is 0.29 goals worse than Babrungas in terms of goals scored per game (1.43 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Neptūną Klaipėda is 1.00 goals worse than Babrungas in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 0.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Neptūną Klaipėda
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.37
0.69
0.38
1.76
0.35
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.29
0.00
0.25
1.67
0.33
vs Similar (15)
1.73
0.33
1.00
0.33
2.22
0.33
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Babrungas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.57
1.46
0.69
1.06
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.50
0.25
2.00
0.00
1.33
0.33
vs Weaker (26)
1.19
0.62
1.42
0.75
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Neptūną Klaipėda
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.50
0.54
0.15
1.53
0.76
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.14
0.25
0.00
1.33
0.33
vs Similar (15)
1.33
0.53
0.50
0.33
1.89
0.67
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.75
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.20
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Babrungas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.57
1.15
0.69
1.29
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.50
0.25
2.00
0.00
1.33
0.33
vs Weaker (26)
1.19
0.62
1.08
0.75
1.29
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
74.3%
1.30
Marathonbet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.31
1xBet
1.30
Unibet
1.28
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.8%
1.24
Unibet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
-
-
+0.9%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →