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Neptūną Klaipėda vs FA Šiauliai II Result & Analysis

Date: 25/07/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 2-1
Neptūną Klaipėda
Neptūną Klaipėda
Vs
55%
23%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FA Šiauliai II
FA Šiauliai II
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Neptūną Klaipėda a 55% win probability against FA Šiauliai II in the Lithuania: 1 Lyga on 2026-07-25, with 23% for the draw and 22% for FA Šiauliai II. The model estimates around 3.3 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (22%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (10.2%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (86%).

Results analysis

Neptūną Klaipėda finished 2-1 against FA Šiauliai II (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 55% home win, 23% draw and 22% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (86%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Neptūną Klaipėda win✓ Hit
55.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II win✗ Miss
21.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W24L21W51W31W10W30W00D12L22DH·NEV19/09A·ATM27/09H·EKR03/10A·BFA18/10H·KAU24/10A·HEG31/10H·PAN09/11H·FK 15/11A·FK 22/11A·TRA20/07
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.001.001.290.502.621.44
vs Stronger (8)1.620.621.000.252.251.00
vs Similar (6)2.331.001.330.333.331.67
vs Weaker (16)2.061.191.430.712.561.56
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W01L03L20W14L21W03L51W22D50WA·HEG12/09H·PAN22/09H·JON26/09A·MIN04/10H·ŽAL19/10A·TRA25/10A·BE131/10A·BAB09/11A·SVE20/11H·SVE23/11
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.572.271.272.131.872.40
vs Stronger (14)1.572.070.862.292.291.86
vs Similar (12)1.672.001.831.671.502.33
vs Weaker (4)1.253.751.003.001.504.50
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%4%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.5%
Under 1.5
14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.8%
Under 2.5
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.8%
Under 3.5
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.6%
No
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%
2-1 ✓
9.7%
2-0
7.6%
3-1
6.7%
1-0
6.4%
2-2
6.1%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
5.3%
Neptūną Klaipėda goals ↓
FA Šiauliai II goals →
01234
04.5%3.6%2.8%1.2%0.4%
16.4%10%5.9%2.5%0.8%
27.6%9.7%6.1%2.6%0.8%
35.3%6.7%4.2%1.8%0.6%
42.7%3.5%2.2%0.9%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Neptūną Klaipėda goals (down), columns = FA Šiauliai II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.23
Tauras
2.07
Babrungas
1.93
BFA
1.83
Atmosfera
1.60
Transinvest 2
1.41
Jonava
1.40
Žalgiris II
1.40
Dainava
1.36
Minija
1.20
Garliava
1.10
Hegelmann II
1.03
Be1 NFA
1.00
Ekranas
0.97
FA Šiauliai II
0.94
Kauno Žalgiris II
0.90
Neptūną Klaipėda is 1.30 points better than FA Šiauliai II in terms of average points per game (2.23 vs 0.94).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.27
Babrungas
2.13
Tauras
1.87
Atmosfera
1.73
Žalgiris II
1.67
BFA
1.57
Transinvest 2
1.54
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.43
Ekranas
1.23
Garliava
1.20
Hegelmann II
1.17
Be1 NFA
1.17
Minija
0.90
Jonava
0.87
Neptūną Klaipėda is 0.77 goals better than FA Šiauliai II in terms of goals scored per game (2.27 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Tauras
0.73
Jonava
0.83
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.90
Atmosfera
1.13
BFA
1.20
Babrungas
1.43
Minija
1.53
Transinvest 2
1.58
Žalgiris II
1.60
Dainava
1.63
Hegelmann II
1.70
Be1 NFA
1.70
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.90
Ekranas
1.93
Garliava
2.03
FA Šiauliai II
2.28
Neptūną Klaipėda is 1.38 goals better than FA Šiauliai II in terms of goals conceded per game (0.90 vs 2.28).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (27)
€1m
HI (37)
€0m
MIN (25)
€0m
FŠI (30)
€0m
TAU (21)
€0m
T2 (24)
€0m
DAI (28)
€0m
BFA (27)
€0m
NK (22)
€0m
GAR (25)
€0m
KŽI (29)
€0m
ATM (19)
€0m
EKR (31)
€0m
Neptūną Klaipėda and FA Šiauliai II have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
FŠI (0)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
HI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
ŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
FŠI (0)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
HI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
ŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
FŠI (0)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
HI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
ŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Neptūną Klaipėda vs FA Šiauliai II · H/A from NK
DateH/AGameScore
22/07/25AFA Šiauliai II Vs NK2-3
07/03/25HNK Vs FA Šiauliai II5-1
23/08/24HNK Vs FA Šiauliai II2-1
29/03/24AFA Šiauliai II Vs NK1-2
20/08/23HNK Vs FA Šiauliai II3-0
02/04/23AFA Šiauliai II Vs NK1-1
21/10/22HNK Vs FA Šiauliai II3-1
19/06/22AFA Šiauliai II Vs NK0-2

Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/07/26ATransinvest 2 Vs NK2-2
22/11/25AFK Trakai Vs NK2-1
15/11/25HNK Vs FK Trakai0-0
09/11/25HNK Vs Panevėžys II3-0
31/10/25AHegelmann II Vs NK0-1
24/10/25HNK Vs Kauno Žalgiris II3-1
18/10/25ABFA Vs NK1-5
03/10/25HNK Vs Ekranas2-1
27/09/25AAtmosfera Vs NK4-2
19/09/25HNK Vs Nevėžis1-0

FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/11/25HFŠI Vs Sveikata5-0
20/11/25ASveikata Vs FŠI2-2
09/11/25ABabrungas Vs FŠI1-5
31/10/25ABe1 NFA Vs FŠI3-0
25/10/25ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs FŠI1-2
19/10/25HFŠI Vs Žalgiris II1-4
04/10/25AMinija Vs FŠI0-2
26/09/25HFŠI Vs Jonava0-3
22/09/25HFŠI Vs Panevėžys II0-1
12/09/25AHegelmann II Vs FŠI0-2

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Neptūną Klaipėda
Neptūną Klaipėda
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDLD1.96
HomeWWWWD2.04
AwayLWWLD1.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%62%58%
AVG goals3.362.833.85
Over 1.5 %80%71%88%
Over 2.5 %62%46%77%
Over 3.5 %44%29%58%
Scored2.201.922.46
Conceded1.160.921.38
BTTS50%46%54%
Clean Sheet36%38%35%
Corners---
Cards---
FA Šiauliai II
FA Šiauliai II
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDW1.02
HomeLLLLW0.71
AwayWWLWD1.31
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%21%42%
AVG goals3.923.254.54
Over 1.5 %92%83%100%
Over 2.5 %78%67%88%
Over 3.5 %64%54%73%
Scored1.601.251.92
Conceded2.322.002.62
BTTS52%42%62%
Clean Sheet18%17%19%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II513
80%
2.6
103+7
2.6
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.00.6
-
2BabrungasBabrungas512
80%
2.4
102+8
2.4
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.4
-
3BFABFA510
60%
2.0
115+6
3.2
60%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda510
60%
2.0
77+0
2.8
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
5MinijaMinija49
75%
2.2
121+11
3.2
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.00.2
-
6DainavaDainava48
50%
2.0
63+3
2.2
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.8
-
7TaurasTauras47
50%
1.8
65+1
2.8
75%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
8JonavaJonava46
50%
1.5
54+1
2.2
75%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
9Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II56
40%
1.2
810-2
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.0
-
10AtmosferaAtmosfera44
25%
1.0
67-1
3.2
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
-
11Transinvest 2Transinvest 254
20%
0.8
710-3
3.4
80%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
12FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II44
25%
1.0
47-3
2.8
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
13EkranasEkranas54
20%
0.8
413-9
3.4
100%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.6
-
14Be1 NFABe1 NFA43
25%
0.8
39-6
3.0
100%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.2
-
15Hegelmann IIHegelmann II53
20%
0.6
513-8
3.6
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.6
-
16GarliavaGarliava40
0%
0.0
16-5
1.8
25%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.21.5
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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