Neptūnų Klaipėda are the clear favourites, with a 51% chance of victory, a 25% chance of a draw and a 25% chance that Hegelmann II will win. The model predicts an average of 3.1 goals, but the most likely total is 2, with a 23% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 11.4% chance, reflecting the evenly matched strength tiers: Neptūnų Klaipėda average 1.5 goals scored and 0.67 conceded at home, while Hegelmann II average 0.8 scored and 2.0 conceded away. Recent form supports the forecast: Neptūnų Klaipėda come off a win, having beaten Atmosfera 3-1, whereas Hegelmann II return after a 0-3 loss to Kauno Žalgiris II. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.2%), Under 6.5 (96.1%), Under 5.5 (90.5%), Home +2 handicap (89.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (88.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (86.9%) and Home over 0.5 goals (84.4%). These picks reflect a high probability of a modest, low-scoring affair dominated by Neptūnų Klaipėda.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Neptūną Klaipėda win
50.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II win
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Neptūną Klaipėda
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
1.07
1.29
0.86
3.12
1.25
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.00
0.20
1.00
2.50
1.00
vs Similar (16)
2.88
0.94
1.50
0.67
3.70
1.10
vs Weaker (7)
2.29
1.43
2.67
1.00
2.00
1.75
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hegelmann II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
2.00
1.25
1.94
1.07
2.07
vs Stronger (12)
1.33
1.75
1.33
1.83
1.33
1.67
vs Similar (11)
0.45
1.91
0.17
1.83
0.80
2.00
vs Weaker (7)
2.00
2.57
2.75
2.25
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.8%
Under 1.5
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.3%
Under 2.5
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.0%
Under 3.5
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.5%
No
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
7.7%
1-0
7.2%
1-2
6.5%
2-2
6.1%
3-1
6.0%
0-0
5.4%
Neptūną Klaipėda goals ↓
Hegelmann II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
4.5%
3.5%
1.5%
0.5%
1
7.2%
11%
6.5%
2.7%
0.9%
2
7.7%
9.6%
6.1%
2.5%
0.8%
3
4.8%
6.0%
3.8%
1.6%
0.5%
4
2.2%
2.8%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Neptūną Klaipėda goals (down), columns = Hegelmann II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Neptūną Klaipėda is 1.00 points better than Hegelmann II in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 0.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Neptūną Klaipėda is 0.29 goals better than Hegelmann II in terms of goals scored per game (1.43 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Neptūną Klaipėda is 1.14 goals better than Hegelmann II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 2.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Neptūną Klaipėda or Draw
75.3%
Avg Implied -
51%
25%
25%
covers Neptūną Klaipėda + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda or Hegelmann II
75.3%
Avg Implied -
51%
25%
25%
covers Neptūną Klaipėda + Hegelmann II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hegelmann II
49.4%
Avg Implied -
51%
25%
25%
covers Draw + Hegelmann II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 0.5
Over
84.5%
Under
15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 1.5
Over
55.6%
Under
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 2.5
Over
28.7%
Under
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 3.5
Over
11.9%
Under
88.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 0.5
Over
71.5%
Under
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 1.5
Over
35.7%
Under
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 2.5
Over
13.3%
Under
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 3.5
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Neptūną Klaipėda, so a minus line means Neptūną Klaipėda give that many goals of a start and Hegelmann II receive them. At -1, Neptūną Klaipėda must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Neptūną Klaipėda win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Neptūną Klaipėda)
Neptūną Klaipėda -2
13.5%
Draw -2
15.7%
Hegelmann II +2
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Neptūną Klaipėda)
Neptūną Klaipėda -1
29.2%
Draw -1
21.4%
Hegelmann II +1
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Neptūną Klaipėda)
Neptūną Klaipėda +1
75.3%
Draw +1
14.1%
Hegelmann II -1
10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Neptūną Klaipėda)
Neptūną Klaipėda +2
89.4%
Draw +2
7.1%
Hegelmann II -2
3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Neptūną Klaipėda
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.43
0.64
0.50
1.69
0.38
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.57
0.00
0.60
1.50
0.50
vs Similar (16)
1.62
0.31
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.30
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.57
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hegelmann II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.03
0.56
1.00
0.43
1.07
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
0.83
0.83
0.67
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.18
1.18
0.00
1.00
0.40
1.40
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
1.14
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Neptūną Klaipėda
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.63
0.64
0.36
1.44
0.88
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.43
0.20
0.40
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (16)
1.25
0.62
0.50
0.33
1.70
0.80
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
0.86
1.67
0.33
1.00
1.25
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hegelmann II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.97
0.69
0.94
0.64
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
0.92
0.50
1.17
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (11)
0.27
0.73
0.17
0.83
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (7)
1.43
1.43
1.75
0.75
1.00
2.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Neptūną Klaipėda and Hegelmann II have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Neptūną Klaipėda and Hegelmann II have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Neptūną Klaipėda and Hegelmann II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
T2 (2)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Neptūną Klaipėda and Hegelmann II have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Žalgiris II
Babrungas
BFA
Minija
Dainava
Kauno Žalgiris II
Be1 NFA
Tauras
Jonava
FA Šiauliai II
Atmosfera
Transinvest 2
Ekranas
Garliava