The match between Neptūnas Klaipėda and Jonava is a tight affair, with the model favouring an away win. Home and away win percentages stand at 32 % and 38 % respectively, with a 30 % chance of a draw. The expected total goals is 2.4, and the most likely total is 2, though the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 14.3 %. Neptūnas, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded, while Jonava, on the road, averages 1.25 goals scored and 0.38 conceded. Recent form shows Neptūnas on a three-match winning streak after two straight defeats, whereas Jonava has won two of its last five after a three-match losing run. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6 %), Under 6.5 (98.8 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.0 %), Under 5.5 (96.3 %), Away under 3.5 goals (96.0 %), Under 4.5 (90.1 %), Home under 2.5 goals (88.9 %), and Away under 2.5 goals (86.5 %).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Neptūną Klaipėda win
33.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jonava win
37.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Neptūną Klaipėda
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
1.07
1.29
0.86
3.12
1.25
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.00
0.20
1.00
2.50
1.00
vs Similar (16)
2.88
0.94
1.50
0.67
3.70
1.10
vs Weaker (7)
2.29
1.43
2.67
1.00
2.00
1.75
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jonava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.03
0.67
1.60
2.40
0.47
vs Stronger (9)
1.44
1.78
1.00
2.60
2.00
0.75
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.43
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (14)
2.00
0.86
0.50
1.33
3.12
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.8%
Under 1.5
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
45.9%
Under 2.5
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.5%
Under 3.5
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.4%
No
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
0-0
9.4%
0-1
9.2%
1-0
8.6%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
7.8%
0-2
6.8%
2-0
6.0%
Neptūną Klaipėda goals ↓
Jonava goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.4%
9.2%
6.8%
2.9%
0.9%
1
8.6%
14%
8.3%
3.6%
1.2%
2
6.0%
7.8%
5.0%
2.2%
0.7%
3
2.4%
3.2%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.7%
1.0%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Neptūną Klaipėda goals (down), columns = Jonava goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Neptūną Klaipėda is 0.36 points better than Jonava in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Neptūną Klaipėda is 0.26 goals better than Jonava in terms of goals scored per game (1.43 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Neptūną Klaipėda is 0.43 goals worse than Jonava in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Neptūną Klaipėda or Draw
62.9%
Avg Implied -
33%
29%
37%
covers Neptūną Klaipėda + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda or Jonava
70.5%
Avg Implied -
33%
29%
37%
covers Neptūną Klaipėda + Jonava
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Jonava
66.5%
Avg Implied -
33%
29%
37%
covers Draw + Jonava
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 0.5
Over
70.4%
Under
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 1.5
Over
34.4%
Under
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 2.5
Over
12.5%
Under
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 3.5
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 0.5
Over
72.6%
Under
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 1.5
Over
37.1%
Under
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 2.5
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 3.5
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Neptūną Klaipėda, so a minus line means Neptūną Klaipėda give that many goals of a start and Jonava receive them. At -1, Neptūną Klaipėda must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Neptūną Klaipėda win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Neptūną Klaipėda)
Neptūną Klaipėda -2
4.9%
Draw -2
9.9%
Jonava +2
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Neptūną Klaipėda)
Neptūną Klaipėda -1
14.8%
Draw -1
18.7%
Jonava +1
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Neptūną Klaipėda)
Neptūną Klaipėda +1
62.9%
Draw +1
20.0%
Jonava -1
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Neptūną Klaipėda)
Neptūną Klaipėda +2
82.9%
Draw +2
11.1%
Jonava -2
6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Neptūną Klaipėda
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.43
0.64
0.50
1.69
0.38
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.57
0.00
0.60
1.50
0.50
vs Similar (16)
1.62
0.31
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.30
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.57
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jonava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.40
0.73
1.00
0.27
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.11
0.60
1.60
0.75
0.50
vs Similar (7)
0.29
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.36
0.17
0.50
1.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.8%
Under 0.5
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.6%
Under 1.5
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.5%
Under 2.5
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.6%
Under
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.6%
Under
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 0.5 HT
Over
38.2%
Under
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Neptūną Klaipėda
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.63
0.64
0.36
1.44
0.88
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.43
0.20
0.40
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (16)
1.25
0.62
0.50
0.33
1.70
0.80
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
0.86
1.67
0.33
1.00
1.25
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jonava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
0.27
0.87
1.40
0.20
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
0.67
0.40
1.00
1.25
0.25
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.43
0.00
0.75
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
0.50
0.33
0.83
1.62
0.25
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.4%
Under 0.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.0%
Under 1.5
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.8%
Under 2.5
82.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 0.5 2H
Over
60.8%
Under
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.5%
Under
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 0.5 2H
Over
46.3%
Under
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Žalgiris II
Babrungas
BFA
Minija
Dainava
Kauno Žalgiris II
Be1 NFA
Tauras
FA Šiauliai II
Hegelmann II
Atmosfera
Transinvest 2
Ekranas
Garliava