This opponent (Dainava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dainava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
2.23
0.67
2.33
0.73
2.13
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
2.31
0.50
2.50
0.62
2.12
vs Similar (14)
0.86
2.14
0.86
2.14
0.86
2.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-23pp vs league)
This opponent (Nevėžis) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
66.1%
Under 1.5
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.0%
Under 2.5
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.3%
Under 3.5
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.2%
No
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-1
12.5%
0-0 ✓
12.3%
1-0
9.1%
0-2
8.7%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
6.2%
2-0
4.9%
Nevėžis goals ↓
Dainava goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
13%
8.7%
3.7%
1.2%
1
9.1%
14%
8.3%
3.5%
1.1%
2
4.9%
6.2%
3.9%
1.7%
0.5%
3
1.6%
2.0%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
4
0.4%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nevėžis goals (down), columns = Dainava goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Panevėžys
3.00
Džiugas Telšiai
2.50
Suduva Marijampole
2.25
Babrungas
2.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
Šiauliai
2.00
Alternatyvus FK
2.00
Klaipėdos FM
2.00
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Tauras
2.00
Minija
2.00
Jonava
1.75
Vilnius FA
1.50
Cementininkas Akmenė
1.50
Utenis Utena
1.50
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.50
VGTU Vilkai
1.50
Banga
1.50
Sirijus Klaipėda
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.50
Garliava
1.50
Atmosfera
1.50
Be1 NFA
1.50
Ekranas
1.50
Sveikata
1.50
Nevėžis
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris
1.33
Futboliukas Vilnius
1.00
OG Kaišiadorys
1.00
FK Sumskas
1.00
FK Ketera
1.00
Radviliškis
1.00
Svyturys
1.00
Vilniaus Vytis
1.00
FK Inter Nemencine
1.00
Nadruvis
1.00
Granitas
1.00
FK Jurbarko Imsre
1.00
Kaunas City FA
1.00
Sendvaris
0.00
Viltis Vilnius
0.00
Šilutė
0.00
Širvėna Biržai
0.00
Pempininkai Gargždai
0.00
FKS Ukmergė
0.00
Tera
0.00
Venta
0.00
Trivartis Vilnius
0.00
Geležinis Vilkas
0.00
Ataka Vilnius
0.00
Nemunas
0.00
Utenos Utena
0.00
Saned Joniškis
0.00
BFA
0.00
Dainava
0.00
FK Trakai
0.00
Nevėžis is 1.50 points better than Dainava in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ekranas
9.00
Tauras
6.33
Panevėžys
4.60
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
4.00
Atmosfera
4.00
Cementininkas Akmenė
3.00
VGTU Vilkai
3.00
Sirijus Klaipėda
3.00
Babrungas
3.00
Klaipėdos FM
2.50
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.50
Sveikata
2.50
Alternatyvus FK
2.33
Suduva Marijampole
2.25
Hegelmann Litauen
2.20
Utenis Utena
2.00
Pempininkai Gargždai
2.00
Nevėžis
2.00
Minija
2.00
Jonava
2.00
Džiugas Telšiai
1.75
Futboliukas Vilnius
1.65
OG Kaišiadorys
1.65
FK Sumskas
1.65
FK Ketera
1.65
Radviliškis
1.65
Svyturys
1.65
Vilniaus Vytis
1.65
FK Inter Nemencine
1.65
Nadruvis
1.65
Granitas
1.65
FK Jurbarko Imsre
1.65
Kaunas City FA
1.65
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.50
Be1 NFA
1.50
Šiauliai
1.33
Viltis Vilnius
1.00
Širvėna Biržai
1.00
Kauno Žalgiris
1.00
Venta
1.00
Geležinis Vilkas
1.00
Banga
1.00
BFA
1.00
FK Trakai
1.00
Vilnius FA
0.50
Garliava
0.50
Sendvaris
0.00
Šilutė
0.00
FKS Ukmergė
0.00
Tera
0.00
Trivartis Vilnius
0.00
Ataka Vilnius
0.00
Nemunas
0.00
Utenos Utena
0.00
Saned Joniškis
0.00
Dainava
0.00
Nevėžis is 2.00 goals better than Dainava in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 0.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Panevėžys
0.20
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.50
Banga
0.50
Babrungas
0.50
Be1 NFA
0.50
Hegelmann Litauen
0.60
Minija
0.67
Suduva Marijampole
0.75
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.00
Šilutė
1.00
Džiugas Telšiai
1.00
Nemunas
1.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.00
Atmosfera
1.00
Ekranas
1.00
Šiauliai
1.33
Kauno Žalgiris
1.33
Tauras
1.33
Cementininkas Akmenė
1.50
Klaipėdos FM
1.50
Garliava
1.50
Sveikata
1.50
Jonava
1.75
Vilnius FA
2.00
Utenos Utena
2.00
FK Trakai
2.00
Nevėžis
2.00
Sirijus Klaipėda
2.50
Alternatyvus FK
2.67
Viltis Vilnius
3.00
Širvėna Biržai
3.00
Utenis Utena
3.00
Ataka Vilnius
3.00
BFA
3.00
Futboliukas Vilnius
3.02
OG Kaišiadorys
3.02
FK Sumskas
3.02
FK Ketera
3.02
Radviliškis
3.02
Svyturys
3.02
Vilniaus Vytis
3.02
FK Inter Nemencine
3.02
Nadruvis
3.02
Granitas
3.02
FK Jurbarko Imsre
3.02
Kaunas City FA
3.02
VGTU Vilkai
3.50
Pempininkai Gargždai
4.00
FKS Ukmergė
4.00
Geležinis Vilkas
5.00
Venta
6.00
Saned Joniškis
6.00
Dainava
6.00
Tera
8.00
Sendvaris
13.00
Trivartis Vilnius
13.00
Nevėžis is 4.00 goals better than Dainava in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 6.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nevėžis or Draw✓ Hit
57.8%
Avg Implied -
27%
31%
42%
covers Nevėžis + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nevėžis or Dainava✗ Miss
68.8%
Avg Implied -
27%
31%
42%
covers Nevėžis + Dainava
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dainava✓ Hit
73.4%
Avg Implied -
27%
31%
42%
covers Draw + Dainava
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nevėžis over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
61.3%
Under
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nevėžis over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
24.5%
Under
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nevėžis over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nevėžis over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
71.7%
Under
28.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
35.9%
Under
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.4%
Under
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Nevėžis, so a minus line means Nevėžis give that many goals of a start and Dainava receive them. At -1, Nevėžis must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nevėžis win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Nevėžis)Actual: Dainava
Nevėžis -2
2.7%
Draw -2
7.2%
Dainava +2
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Nevėžis)Actual: Dainava
Nevėžis -1
9.9%
Draw -1
16.7%
Dainava +1
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Nevėžis)Actual: Nevėžis
Nevėžis +1
57.8%
Draw +1
22.6%
Dainava -1
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Nevėžis)Actual: Nevėžis
Nevėžis +2
80.4%
Draw +2
12.8%
Dainava -2
6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nevėžis
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.87
0.44
1.00
0.29
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.43
0.00
0.50
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (23)
0.35
1.00
0.58
1.17
0.09
0.82
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Dainava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dainava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.80
0.20
0.87
0.27
0.73
vs Stronger (16)
0.25
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (14)
0.21
0.86
0.14
0.71
0.29
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Nevėžis) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nevėžis over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nevėžis over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nevėžis over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nevėžis
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.17
0.50
1.12
0.93
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.57
1.14
0.25
0.50
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (23)
0.74
1.17
0.58
1.33
0.91
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Dainava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dainava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.43
0.47
1.47
0.47
1.40
vs Stronger (16)
0.31
1.56
0.25
1.50
0.38
1.62
vs Similar (14)
0.64
1.29
0.71
1.43
0.57
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Nevėžis) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nevėžis over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nevėžis over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nevėžis over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →