PythiaFootballBETA
The match between Newport County and Oldham is expected to be a closely contested affair, with the away team's recent form suggesting they may be on the upswing. Oldham's last win came against Accrington, where they dominated with a 3-0 scoreline, but their recent form has been inconsistent. Meanwhile, Newport County are on a 2-game winning run, having beaten Barrow 2-1 in their last encounter.
The model predicts an away win, with a 43% chance of Oldham taking the three points. The home win percentage stands at 28%, while the draw percentage is 29%. The expected total goals is 2.5, with the most likely total goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.9% probability.
In terms of scoring and conceding, Newport County have averaged 1.17 goals at home and 1.67 conceded, while Oldham have averaged 1.42 goals away and 1.25 conceded against similar opponents. The model's selections include Under 3.5, with a 75.8% probability, and Over 1.5, with a 72.5% probability, indicating a low-scoring match with potential for both teams to find the net.
Newport County's 3-2 win over Oldham has extended their run of form, with the home side now on a 2-game winning streak. The actual result was a surprise, as the pre-match favourite, Oldham, failed to come through, with the model's selection, Oldham to win, proving wrong at 43% probability. The model's call was incorrect. Meanwhile, the model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit at 72.5%, while Under 3.5 goals missed at 75.8%. The most likely score was a 1-1 draw, but the actual result was a thrilling 3-2 win for the home side.
Newport County| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.29 | 0.81 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 1.00 | 1.67 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.89 | 1.67 | 0.92 | 1.31 | 0.86 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
Oldham| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.43 | 1.07 | 1.40 | 0.73 | 1.47 | 1.40 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 1.80 | 1.00 | 1.67 | 0.67 | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.36 | 1.08 | 1.33 | 0.75 | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
| Oldham goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.5% | 10% | 8.1% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 7.7% | 14% | 8.9% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| 2 | 4.9% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Newport CountyOldhamNewport County| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 22.8 | 22.6 | 23.0 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 9.1 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 23.3 | 22.2 | 24.7 |
| vs Similar (43) | 9.5 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 22.7 | 22.7 | 22.7 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 51% | 50% | 52% | 48% | 56% | 40% | 63% | 62% | 64% |
| % under line | 49% | 50% | 48% | 52% | 44% | 60% | 37% | 38% | 36% |
Oldham| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.2 | 9.9 | 10.5 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 24.9 | 24.6 | 25.2 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 11.2 | 9.3 | 13.0 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 22.3 | 22.0 | 22.7 |
| vs Similar (42) | 10.1 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 25.3 | 25.0 | 25.6 |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 3.0 | - | 3.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 60% | 55% | 65% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 71% | 68% | 74% |
| % under line | 40% | 45% | 35% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 29% | 32% | 26% |
Newport County| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.27 | 0.63 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.19 | 0.81 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.30 | 0.59 | 0.38 | 0.46 | 0.21 | 0.71 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Oldham| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.53 | 0.33 | 0.53 | 0.67 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 0.62 | 0.54 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Newport County| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 1.03 | 0.64 | 0.86 | 0.62 | 1.19 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 1.00 | 0.67 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.59 | 1.07 | 0.54 | 0.85 | 0.64 | 1.29 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Oldham| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 0.53 | 1.07 | 0.20 | 0.80 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 1.20 | 0.40 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.88 | 0.56 | 1.00 | 0.25 | 0.77 | 0.85 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+38pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 79.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 76.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 75.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 5.5 cards | 75.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 72.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 70.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 8.5 corners | 70.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/25 | A | 3-0 | |
| 12/02/22 | H | 3-3 | |
| 07/08/21 | A | 0-1 | |
| 23/01/21 | A | 3-2 | |
| 19/12/20 | H | 2-4 |
Newport County| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 17/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 03/03/26 | H | 3-1 |
Oldham| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 14/04/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 24/03/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 17/03/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Notts County | 49 | 87 | 53% | 1.8 | 78 | 52 | +26 | 2.7 | 73% | 55% | 27% | 9.2 | 45% | 4.4 | 65% | 24.4 | 73% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 55% |
| 2 |  Bromley | 46 | 87 | 52% | 1.9 | 71 | 46 | +25 | 2.5 | 76% | 52% | 28% | 10.3 | 63% | 3.7 | 57% | 21.8 | 59% | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 44% |
| 3 |  Milton Keynes Dons | 46 | 86 | 52% | 1.9 | 86 | 45 | +41 | 2.8 | 78% | 54% | 37% | 8.8 | 37% | 3.8 | 61% | 23.4 | 61% | 10 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 4 |  Salford | 49 | 85 | 53% | 1.7 | 65 | 57 | +8 | 2.5 | 65% | 47% | 27% | 9.8 | 51% | 3.7 | 43% | 25.3 | 71% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 50% |
| 5 |  Cambridge | 46 | 82 | 48% | 1.8 | 66 | 33 | +33 | 2.2 | 72% | 35% | 13% | 9.2 | 50% | 3.1 | 35% | 22.9 | 59% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 51% |
| 6 |  Chesterfield | 48 | 80 | 44% | 1.7 | 71 | 57 | +14 | 2.7 | 71% | 44% | 29% | 10.2 | 58% | 4.1 | 56% | 22.0 | 48% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 58% |
| 7 |  Grimsby | 48 | 79 | 46% | 1.6 | 77 | 54 | +23 | 2.7 | 71% | 50% | 33% | 10.5 | 54% | 4.0 | 65% | 24.2 | 69% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 55% |
| 8 |  Barnet | 46 | 76 | 46% | 1.7 | 70 | 53 | +17 | 2.7 | 76% | 48% | 30% | 10.2 | 57% | 3.6 | 50% | 23.8 | 65% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 56% |
| 9 |  Swindon | 46 | 75 | 48% | 1.6 | 70 | 59 | +11 | 2.8 | 85% | 63% | 28% | 11.2 | 74% | 3.5 | 46% | 20.7 | 37% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 52% |
| 10 | Oldham | 46 | 68 | 39% | 1.5 | 60 | 44 | +16 | 2.3 | 65% | 48% | 20% | 10.1 | 61% | 3.9 | 63% | 25.0 | 72% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 48% |
| 11 |  Crewe | 46 | 67 | 41% | 1.5 | 64 | 58 | +6 | 2.7 | 72% | 52% | 30% | 9.3 | 59% | 3.9 | 52% | 25.5 | 74% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 12 |  Colchester | 46 | 66 | 39% | 1.4 | 62 | 49 | +13 | 2.4 | 67% | 35% | 20% | 9.1 | 37% | 4.1 | 63% | 24.9 | 76% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 54% |
| 13 |  Walsall | 46 | 65 | 39% | 1.4 | 56 | 56 | +0 | 2.4 | 70% | 48% | 26% | 10.0 | 59% | 3.8 | 50% | 23.1 | 61% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 41% |
| 14 |  Bristol Rvs | 46 | 62 | 41% | 1.3 | 56 | 65 | -9 | 2.6 | 72% | 52% | 30% | 9.4 | 39% | 4.7 | 76% | 24.2 | 70% | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | - |
| 15 |  Fleetwood Town | 46 | 61 | 33% | 1.3 | 57 | 58 | -1 | 2.5 | 74% | 46% | 20% | 10.0 | 57% | 3.8 | 54% | 23.0 | 63% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 16 |  Accrington | 46 | 53 | 30% | 1.2 | 47 | 58 | -11 | 2.3 | 67% | 37% | 20% | 9.5 | 48% | 4.0 | 54% | 22.2 | 48% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 48% |
| 17 |  Gillingham | 46 | 53 | 28% | 1.2 | 53 | 72 | -19 | 2.7 | 70% | 46% | 30% | 9.5 | 43% | 4.0 | 61% | 23.9 | 63% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 47% |
| 18 |  Cheltenham | 46 | 52 | 30% | 1.1 | 53 | 79 | -26 | 2.9 | 80% | 48% | 33% | 9.6 | 54% | 3.6 | 48% | 22.7 | 61% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 19 |  Shrewsbury | 46 | 49 | 28% | 1.1 | 42 | 69 | -27 | 2.4 | 63% | 46% | 30% | 8.2 | 30% | 4.0 | 54% | 22.3 | 61% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 44% |
| 20 | Newport County | 46 | 43 | 26% | 0.9 | 48 | 77 | -29 | 2.7 | 76% | 57% | 28% | 9.5 | 54% | 4.0 | 54% | 23.5 | 70% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 47% |
| 21 |  Tranmere | 46 | 41 | 22% | 0.9 | 54 | 79 | -25 | 2.9 | 83% | 54% | 35% | 10.2 | 54% | 3.8 | 57% | 22.4 | 61% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 22 |  Crawley Town | 46 | 40 | 17% | 0.9 | 44 | 68 | -24 | 2.4 | 74% | 43% | 26% | 12.0 | 78% | 4.1 | 59% | 25.7 | 76% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 56% |
| 23 |  Harrogate | 46 | 39 | 22% | 0.8 | 39 | 68 | -29 | 2.3 | 70% | 37% | 17% | 10.3 | 63% | 3.1 | 39% | 21.7 | 41% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 47% |
| 24 |  Barrow | 46 | 36 | 20% | 0.8 | 45 | 78 | -33 | 2.7 | 72% | 63% | 33% | 9.9 | 59% | 3.3 | 48% | 20.4 | 39% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 46% |