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Newry City AFC vs Glenavon FC Result & Analysis

Date: 26/12/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 0-4
Newry City AFC
Newry City AFC
Vs
20%
24%
56%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Glenavon FC
Glenavon FC
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Newry City AFC win✗ Miss
20.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC win✓ Hit
55.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Newry City AFCNewry City AFC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L12L03L01L14L03L11D00D01L01LA·LOU21/10H·LAR28/10H·LIN04/11A·CLI11/11A·DUN18/11H·GLE24/11A·CRU02/12H·BAL08/12A·GLE16/12H·CAR22/12
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.902.300.732.401.072.20
vs Stronger (12)0.503.170.672.670.333.67
vs Similar (18)1.171.720.782.221.561.22
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Glenavon FCGlenavon FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L31W10W10W20W30W11D14L02L13LA·GLE21/10A·CAR28/10H·DUN04/11A·BAL11/11H·LOU18/11A·NEW24/11H·COL02/12A·LAR08/12H·LIN16/12H·CRU23/12
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.731.001.331.332.13
vs Stronger (12)0.672.750.501.670.833.83
vs Similar (18)1.501.061.331.111.671.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Newry City AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.1%
Under 1.5
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.7%
Under 2.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.2%
Under 3.5
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.4%
No
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
9.2%
0-1
8.5%
1-3
6.3%
0-0
6.0%
0-3
5.9%
2-1
5.6%
Newry City AFC goals ↓
Glenavon FC goals →
01234
06.0%8.5%9.2%5.9%2.8%
14.4%11%9.9%6.3%3.0%
22.9%5.6%5.4%3.4%1.6%
31.1%2.0%1.9%1.2%0.6%
40.3%0.5%0.5%0.3%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Newry City AFC goals (down), columns = Glenavon FC goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Larne
2.37
Linfield
2.24
Cliftonville FC
1.97
Crusaders FC
1.75
Glentoran
1.54
Institute
1.50
Carrick Rangers
1.28
Dungannon Swifts
1.24
Coleraine FC
1.23
Loughgall
1.18
Glenavon FC
0.97
Ballymena United
0.78
Newry City AFC
0.45
Newry City AFC is 0.53 points worse than Glenavon FC in terms of average points per game (0.45 vs 0.97).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Larne
2.24
Linfield
2.16
Cliftonville FC
2.11
Glentoran
1.90
Dungannon Swifts
1.68
Crusaders FC
1.68
Loughgall
1.58
Carrick Rangers
1.41
Coleraine FC
1.30
Glenavon FC
1.18
Ballymena United
0.78
Newry City AFC
0.68
Institute
0.50
Newry City AFC is 0.50 goals worse than Glenavon FC in terms of goals scored per game (0.68 vs 1.18).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.55
Institute
1.00
Linfield
1.05
Cliftonville FC
1.13
Crusaders FC
1.15
Glentoran
1.18
Ballymena United
1.77
Loughgall
1.79
Coleraine FC
1.80
Dungannon Swifts
1.82
Glenavon FC
1.84
Carrick Rangers
1.92
Newry City AFC
2.61
Newry City AFC is 0.76 goals worse than Glenavon FC in terms of goals conceded per game (2.61 vs 1.84).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Newry City AFCNewry City AFC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D00D01L13L02L01L00D01L00DA·LOU21/10H·LAR28/10H·LIN04/11A·CLI11/11A·DUN18/11H·GLE24/11A·CRU02/12H·BAL08/12A·GLE16/12H·CAR22/12
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.230.401.200.601.27
vs Stronger (12)0.171.670.331.000.002.33
vs Similar (18)0.720.940.441.331.000.56
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Glenavon FCGlenavon FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L21W10W10W20W20W00D01L01L01LA·GLE21/10A·CAR28/10H·DUN04/11A·BAL11/11H·LOU18/11A·NEW24/11H·COL02/12A·LAR08/12H·LIN16/12H·CRU23/12
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.670.400.270.671.07
vs Stronger (12)0.171.080.000.330.331.83
vs Similar (18)0.780.390.670.220.890.56
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Newry City AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Newry City AFC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Newry City AFCNewry City AFC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L12L03L00D01L01L10W00D00D01LA·LOU21/10H·LAR28/10H·LIN04/11A·CLI11/11A·DUN18/11H·GLE24/11A·CRU02/12H·BAL08/12A·GLE16/12H·CAR22/12
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.070.331.200.470.93
vs Stronger (12)0.331.500.331.670.331.33
vs Similar (18)0.440.780.330.890.560.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Glenavon FCGlenavon FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W00D00D00D10W11D13L01L12LA·GLE21/10A·CAR28/10H·DUN04/11A·BAL11/11H·LOU18/11A·NEW24/11H·COL02/12A·LAR08/12H·LIN16/12H·CRU23/12
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.070.601.070.671.07
vs Stronger (12)0.501.670.501.330.502.00
vs Similar (18)0.720.670.670.890.780.44
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Newry City AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Newry City AFC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
CF (18)
€1m
GF (13)
€1m
LOU (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
GF (3)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
GF (1)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
GF (9)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LOU (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
3
NCA wins
0
Draws
3
GF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Newry City AFC vs Glenavon FC · H/A from NCA
DateH/AGameScore
24/11/23HNCA Vs Glenavon FC0-3
19/08/23AGlenavon FC Vs NCA1-3
15/04/23HNCA Vs Glenavon FC0-1
04/03/23HNCA Vs Glenavon FC0-1
25/02/23AGlenavon FC Vs NCA0-2
30/08/22AGlenavon FC Vs NCA1-5

Newry City AFCNewry City AFC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/12/23HNCA Vs Carrick Rangers0-1
16/12/23AGlentoran Vs NCA1-0
08/12/23HNCA Vs Ballymena United0-0
02/12/23ACrusaders FC Vs NCA1-1
24/11/23HNCA Vs Glenavon FC0-3
18/11/23ADungannon Swifts Vs NCA4-1
11/11/23ACliftonville FC Vs NCA1-0
04/11/23HNCA Vs Linfield0-3
28/10/23HNCA Vs Larne1-2
21/10/23ALoughgall Vs NCA3-1

Glenavon FCGlenavon FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/12/23HGF Vs Crusaders FC1-3
16/12/23HGF Vs Linfield0-2
08/12/23ALarne Vs GF4-1
02/12/23HGF Vs Coleraine FC1-1
24/11/23ANewry City AFC Vs GF0-3
18/11/23HGF Vs Loughgall2-0
11/11/23ABallymena United Vs GF0-1
04/11/23HGF Vs Dungannon Swifts1-0
28/10/23ACarrick Rangers Vs GF1-3
21/10/23AGlentoran Vs GF3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Newry City AFC
Newry City AFC
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 0 Wins / 2 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDLL0.60
HomeLLLDL0.38
AwayLLLDL0.83
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %16%8%25%
AVG goals2.902.922.88
Over 1.5 %78%77%79%
Over 2.5 %54%62%46%
Over 3.5 %36%35%38%
Scored0.800.810.79
Conceded2.102.122.08
BTTS38%42%33%
Clean Sheet16%8%25%
Corners---
Cards---
Glenavon FC
Glenavon FC
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLLL1.26
HomeWWDLL1.40
AwayLWWWL1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%40%32%
AVG goals2.902.803.00
Over 1.5 %74%72%76%
Over 2.5 %58%52%64%
Over 3.5 %40%36%44%
Scored1.181.201.16
Conceded1.721.601.84
BTTS54%56%52%
Clean Sheet24%20%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LarneLarne3890
71%
2.4
8521+64
2.8
79%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1122.20.6
-
2LinfieldLinfield3885
68%
2.2
8240+42
3.2
87%
61%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0112.21.1
-
3Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC3875
61%
2.0
8043+37
3.2
87%
68%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.11.1
-
4Crusaders FCCrusaders FC4070
52%
1.8
6746+21
2.8
82%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.71.1
-
5GlentoranGlentoran3960
44%
1.5
7446+28
3.1
79%
67%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.2
-
6Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers3950
38%
1.3
5575-20
3.3
87%
64%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.41.9
-
7Coleraine FCColeraine FC4049
32%
1.2
5272-20
3.1
90%
62%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.31.8
-
8Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts3847
34%
1.2
6469-5
3.5
89%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0111.71.8
-
9LoughgallLoughgall3845
34%
1.2
6068-8
3.4
84%
68%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
-
10Glenavon FCGlenavon FC3837
29%
1.0
4570-25
3.0
76%
58%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.8
-
11Ballymena UnitedBallymena United4031
22%
0.8
3171-40
2.5
68%
42%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.81.8
-
12Newry City AFCNewry City AFC3817
11%
0.4
2699-73
3.3
82%
63%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.6
-
13InstituteInstitute23
50%
1.5
12-1
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

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