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Newtown AFC vs Bala Town Result & Analysis

Date: 30/09/2023
Time: 13:30
Final 1-0
Newtown AFC
Newtown AFC
Vs
37%
29%
35%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Bala Town
Bala Town
Wales: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Newtown AFC win✓ Hit
36.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bala Town win✗ Miss
34.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Newtown AFCNewtown AFC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D13L12L00D13L21W40W20W42W10WH·HAV13/05H·PEN12/08A·CAE18/08H·ABE26/08A·GAP29/08H·CAR01/09A·HAV09/09H·BAR16/09A·COL23/09A·PON26/09
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.431.641.361.751.50
vs Stronger (9)1.221.781.252.001.201.60
vs Similar (21)1.901.291.801.102.001.45
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Bala Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Bala TownBala Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-424L10W00D10W11D21W00D00D13L01LH·NEW05/05H·BAR12/08A·CAR19/08H·GAP25/08A·CAE29/08H·PEN02/09H·THE13/09A·PON16/09A·BAR23/09H·ABE27/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.131.180.761.151.62
vs Stronger (7)0.711.291.000.670.501.75
vs Similar (22)1.271.091.150.771.441.56
vs Weaker (1)2.001.002.001.00--
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Newtown AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.7%
Under 1.5
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.4%
Under 2.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.6%
Under 3.5
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.3%
No
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
0-0
8.6%
1-0 ✓
8.5%
2-1
8.3%
0-1
8.2%
1-2
8.0%
2-0
6.5%
0-2
6.1%
Newtown AFC goals ↓
Bala Town goals →
01234
08.6%8.2%6.1%2.6%0.8%
18.5%14%8.0%3.4%1.1%
26.5%8.3%5.3%2.3%0.7%
32.8%3.7%2.3%1.0%0.3%
40.9%1.2%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Newtown AFC goals (down), columns = Bala Town goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
2.88
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.84
Bala Town
1.59
Penybont
1.53
Caernarfon Town
1.38
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.34
Newtown AFC
1.33
Cardiff MET
1.18
Barry Town
1.00
Pontypridd Town
0.97
Aberystwyth Town
0.84
Colwyn Bay
0.78
Newtown AFC is 0.26 points worse than Bala Town in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.59).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
3.66
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.19
Caernarfon Town
1.68
Penybont
1.53
Newtown AFC
1.48
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.22
Bala Town
1.19
Barry Town
1.12
Colwyn Bay
1.06
Cardiff MET
1.06
Aberystwyth Town
0.84
Pontypridd Town
0.72
Newtown AFC is 0.30 goals better than Bala Town in terms of goals scored per game (1.48 vs 1.19).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.56
Bala Town
0.97
Penybont
1.18
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.25
Pontypridd Town
1.28
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.34
Newtown AFC
1.55
Barry Town
1.69
Aberystwyth Town
1.78
Cardiff MET
1.97
Colwyn Bay
2.06
Caernarfon Town
2.09
Newtown AFC is 0.58 goals worse than Bala Town in terms of goals conceded per game (1.55 vs 0.97).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Newtown AFCNewtown AFC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D02L01L00D11D21W20W10W31W00DH·HAV13/05H·PEN12/08A·CAE18/08H·ABE26/08A·GAP29/08H·CAR01/09A·HAV09/09H·BAR16/09A·COL23/09A·PON26/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.670.710.570.880.75
vs Stronger (9)0.890.671.000.750.800.60
vs Similar (21)0.760.670.600.500.910.82
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Bala Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Bala TownBala Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L00D00D00D00D20W00D00D02L01LH·NEW05/05H·BAR12/08A·CAR19/08H·GAP25/08A·CAE29/08H·PEN02/09H·THE13/09A·PON16/09A·BAR23/09H·ABE27/09
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.530.530.290.380.85
vs Stronger (7)0.430.570.330.000.501.00
vs Similar (22)0.500.550.620.380.330.78
vs Weaker (1)0.000.000.000.00--
Clean sheet %63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Newtown AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Newtown AFC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newtown AFC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newtown AFC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bala Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bala Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bala Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Newtown AFCNewtown AFC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D11D00D02L00D20W10W11D10WH·HAV13/05H·PEN12/08A·CAE18/08H·ABE26/08A·GAP29/08H·CAR01/09A·HAV09/09H·BAR16/09A·COL23/09A·PON26/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.770.930.790.880.75
vs Stronger (9)0.331.110.251.250.401.00
vs Similar (21)1.140.621.200.601.090.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Bala Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Bala TownBala Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L10W00D10W11D01L00D00D11D00DH·NEW05/05H·BAR12/08A·CAR19/08H·GAP25/08A·CAE29/08H·PEN02/09H·THE13/09A·PON16/09A·BAR23/09H·ABE27/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.600.650.470.770.77
vs Stronger (7)0.290.710.670.670.000.75
vs Similar (22)0.770.550.540.381.110.78
vs Weaker (1)2.001.002.001.00--
Clean sheet %60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Newtown AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Newtown AFC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newtown AFC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newtown AFC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bala Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bala Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bala Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.574.7%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.573.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
AT (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
3
NA wins
0
Draws
2
BT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Newtown AFC vs Bala Town · H/A from NA
DateH/AGameScore
05/05/23ABala Town Vs NA2-4
07/04/23ABala Town Vs NA1-2
25/02/23HNA Vs Bala Town3-2
27/09/22HNA Vs Bala Town0-2
26/08/22ABala Town Vs NA3-0

Newtown AFCNewtown AFC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/09/23APontypridd Town Vs NA0-1
23/09/23AColwyn Bay Vs NA2-4
16/09/23HNA Vs Barry Town2-0
09/09/23AHaverfordwest County AFC Vs NA0-4
01/09/23HNA Vs Cardiff MET2-1
29/08/23AGAP Connah S Quay FC Vs NA3-1
26/08/23HNA Vs Aberystwyth Town0-0
18/08/23ACaernarfon Town Vs NA2-1
12/08/23HNA Vs Penybont1-3
13/05/23HNA Vs Haverfordwest County AFC1-1

Bala TownBala Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/09/23HBT Vs Aberystwyth Town0-1
23/09/23ABarry Town Vs BT3-1
16/09/23APontypridd Town Vs BT0-0
13/09/23HBT Vs The New Saints0-0
02/09/23HBT Vs Penybont2-1
29/08/23ACaernarfon Town Vs BT1-1
25/08/23HBT Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC1-0
19/08/23ACardiff MET Vs BT0-0
12/08/23HBT Vs Barry Town1-0
05/05/23HBT Vs Newtown AFC2-4

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Newtown AFC
Newtown AFC
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.36
HomeDLDWW1.39
AwayLLWWW1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%39%42%
AVG goals3.232.783.67
Over 1.5 %81%78%83%
Over 2.5 %66%52%79%
Over 3.5 %38%26%50%
Scored1.571.391.75
Conceded1.661.391.92
BTTS62%57%67%
Clean Sheet17%22%12%
Corners14.0011.0017.00
Cards5.336.503.00
Bala Town
Bala Town
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDLL1.36
HomeWWWDL1.57
AwayLDDDL1.14
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%43%29%
AVG goals2.502.172.86
Over 1.5 %70%65%76%
Over 2.5 %50%48%52%
Over 3.5 %20%9%33%
Scored1.391.221.57
Conceded1.110.961.29
BTTS45%35%57%
Clean Sheet39%52%24%
Corners11.0012.0010.00
Cards4.00-4.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1The New SaintsThe New Saints3292
94%
2.9
11718+99
4.2
81%
72%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1113.70.6
-
2GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC3259
56%
1.8
7043+27
3.5
84%
72%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.21.3
-
3PenybontPenybont3452
44%
1.5
5240+12
2.7
71%
53%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.51.2
-
4Bala TownBala Town3251
41%
1.6
3831+7
2.2
59%
31%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.0
-
5Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town3447
38%
1.4
5771-14
3.8
91%
74%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.72.1
-
6Newtown AFCNewtown AFC3344
39%
1.3
4951-2
3.0
79%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
7Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC3243
34%
1.3
3940-1
2.5
75%
38%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.2
-
8Cardiff METCardiff MET3339
30%
1.2
3565-30
3.0
79%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.12.0
-
9Barry TownBarry Town3232
22%
1.0
3654-18
2.8
75%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.7
-
10Pontypridd TownPontypridd Town3231
25%
1.0
2341-18
2.0
56%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.3
-
11Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town3227
22%
0.8
2757-30
2.6
69%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
12Colwyn BayColwyn Bay3225
22%
0.8
3466-32
3.1
72%
66%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.12.1
-
Wales: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →

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