Nice are tipped to win, with a 43% chance of taking the match, while a draw sits at 26% and Le Mans 31%. The model expects 3.1 goals on average, but the most likely total is two, with a 23% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 12%. Nice, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 3.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, whereas Le Mans, away against a stronger opponent, averages 1.0 scored and 3.0 conceded. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.7%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.5% with a 5% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.3% with a 5% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.8% with a 6% edge), Under 6.5 (96.4% with a 1% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (94.7%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (91.8% with a 3% edge) and Home under 3.5 goals (91.2% with a 3% edge). Nice are coming off a 0-3 loss to Paris FC, while Le Mans also lost 2-3 to Rennes.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nice win
42.8%
Avg Implied 51.2% · @ 1.85
Edge
-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.88
Dafabet
1.88
Pinnacle
1.86
Betfair
1.85
Draw
26.0%
Avg Implied 26.1% · @ 3.62
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.84
Betfair
3.80
Pinnacle
3.79
Marathonbet
3.78
Dafabet
3.65
Le Mans win
31.2%
Avg Implied 22.7% · @ 4.16
Edge
+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.32
Pinnacle
4.26
Marathonbet
4.25
Betano
4.25
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nice
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.47
1.43
1.50
0.88
1.44
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
0.00
4.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.92
1.40
1.27
1.27
0.64
1.50
vs Weaker (4)
2.75
1.25
3.00
1.50
2.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Le Mans) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Le Mans
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.93
1.15
0.38
1.59
1.35
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
2.25
1.50
1.50
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
1.42
0.67
1.09
0.18
1.69
1.08
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
-
-
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Nice) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.0%
@ 1.27+8.2%
Under 1.5
18.0%
@ 3.59-8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Bet365
1.28
BetVictor
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.87
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.55
Betano
3.55
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.9%
@ 1.88+8.2%
Under 2.5
41.1%
@ 1.94-8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.93
1xBet
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
Under
Pinnacle
2.01
1xBet
2.01
SBO
1.98
Betano
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.6%
@ 3.13+6.5%
Under 3.5
63.4%
@ 1.34-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.35
Betfair
3.25
Betano
3.20
Pinnacle
3.20
Bet365
3.20
Under
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
BetVictor
1.35
Both teams to score
Yes
62.0%
@ 1.76+9.0%
No
38.0%
@ 1.98-9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.80
William Hil
1.80
Unibet
1.79
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.75
No
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Betano
2.00
Bet365
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%@ 6.53+5.1%
2-1
9.1%@ 7.71+3.2%
1-2
7.6%@ 12.80+4.1%
1-0
6.7%@ 6.98+0.3%
2-0
6.5%@ 8.37+1.1%
2-2
6.3%@ 13.57+3.0%
0-0
5.8%@ 9.96+1.3%
0-1
5.5%@ 11.13+1.4%
Nice goals ↓
Le Mans goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.8%
5.5%
4.6%
2.1%
0.7%
1
6.7%
12%
7.6%
3.5%
1.2%
2
6.5%
9.1%
6.3%
2.9%
1.0%
3
3.6%
5.0%
3.5%
1.6%
0.6%
4
1.5%
2.1%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nice goals (down), columns = Le Mans goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.74
Rennes
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Nice
1.00
Auxerre
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Nice is 0.17 points better than Le Mans in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Nice is 0.26 goals better than Le Mans in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 0.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Paris FC
1.47
Rennes
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Nice is 0.63 goals better than Le Mans in terms of goals conceded per game (1.69 vs 2.32).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Nice
For 5.8 · Against 5.4 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.5 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.1 · Against 10.6 · Total 19.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Le Mans
For 4.9 · Against 3.1 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.5 · Against 10.5 · Total 28.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nice
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.9
10.2
4.0
3.8
4.1
23.4
22.9
23.8
vs Stronger (5)
8.2
7.5
8.7
4.0
4.0
4.0
24.0
22.5
25.0
vs Similar (40)
10.7
10.8
10.6
4.0
3.8
4.1
23.1
22.6
23.6
vs Weaker (5)
11.0
13.3
7.5
4.0
3.7
4.5
24.6
25.3
23.5
% over line
60%
65%
56%
58%
48%
67%
56%
48%
63%
% under line
40%
35%
44%
42%
52%
33%
44%
52%
37%
This opponent (Le Mans) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Le Mans
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.8
9.6
3.7
3.2
4.2
27.0
25.6
28.4
vs Stronger (6)
7.6
4.5
9.7
2.3
1.0
3.7
23.0
21.5
24.0
vs Similar (39)
10.0
10.3
9.7
4.2
3.6
4.7
27.4
26.1
28.8
vs Weaker (5)
9.0
-
9.0
1.6
0.0
2.0
34.0
-
34.0
% over line
58%
62%
55%
54%
50%
58%
86%
81%
91%
% under line
42%
38%
45%
46%
50%
42%
14%
19%
9%
This opponent (Nice) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.5
Rennes
10.5
Lens
10.3
Auxerre
10.0
Lyon
9.9
Stade Brestois 29
9.7
Lille
9.6
Monaco
9.6
Paris FC
9.4
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Le Mans
9.3
Toulouse
9.3
Angers
9.2
Marseille
9.1
Le Havre
9.0
Strasbourg
8.9
Lorient
8.9
Estac Troyes
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Auxerre
4.8
Lyon
4.6
Marseille
4.5
Lens
4.5
Le Mans
4.4
Lille
4.4
Toulouse
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Rennes
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Le Havre
4.0
Nice
4.0
Lorient
4.0
Estac Troyes
3.9
Paris FC
3.9
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Le Mans
27.1
Estac Troyes
27.0
Le Havre
26.8
Auxerre
25.7
Toulouse
25.4
Lyon
25.1
Stade Brestois 29
25.0
Lens
24.8
Rennes
24.0
Lille
24.0
Monaco
23.5
Strasbourg
23.5
Nice
23.4
Marseille
23.4
Lorient
22.8
Angers
22.7
Paris FC
22.3
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
56.0%
@ 1.70+1.3%
Under 9.5
44.0%
@ 2.05-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.77
Marathonbet
1.73
10Bet
1.70
1xBet
1.67
Unibet
1.67
Under
Betano
2.15
10Bet
2.05
Unibet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.03
1xBet
2.03
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
59.1%
@ 1.51-2.9%
Under 3.5
40.9%
@ 2.46+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.52
Unibet
1.41
Under
Unibet
2.63
Pinnacle
2.49
Betano
2.27
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
67.1%
Under 21.5
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nice or Draw
68.8%
Avg Implied 77.3% · @ 1.22
Edge
-8.5%
43%
26%
31%
covers Nice + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
BetVictor
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Nice or Le Mans
74.0%
Avg Implied 74.6% · @ 1.26
Edge
-0.6%
43%
26%
31%
covers Nice + Le Mans
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Draw or Le Mans
57.2%
Avg Implied 48.1% · @ 1.95
Edge
+9.0%
43%
26%
31%
covers Draw + Le Mans
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.00
1xBet
1.99
Marathonbet
1.99
Betano
1.98
10Bet
1.95
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nice over/under 0.5
Over
81.0%
@ 1.16+1.1%
Under
19.0%
@ 4.63-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
BetVictor
1.15
Under
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
4.80
BetVictor
4.75
1xBet
4.65
10Bet
4.50
Nice over/under 1.5
Over
49.5%
@ 1.87-0.6%
Under
50.5%
@ 1.87+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.87
Unibet
1.87
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathonbet
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Betano
1.88
BetVictor
1.87
Nice over/under 2.5
Over
23.3%
@ 3.73-1.7%
Under
76.7%
@ 1.24+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.88
BetVictor
3.80
Betfair
3.80
Unibet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Under
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Nice over/under 3.5
Over
8.8%
@ 7.97-2.9%
Under
91.2%
@ 1.05+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.90
1xBet
7.90
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Le Mans over/under 0.5
Over
75.2%
@ 1.45+11.3%
Under
24.8%
@ 2.57-11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.47
Unibet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Betfair
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Under
Pinnacle
2.75
Bet365
2.62
BetVictor
2.60
Betano
2.57
Marathonbet
2.57
Le Mans over/under 1.5
Over
40.6%
@ 3.28+12.1%
Under
59.4%
@ 1.31-12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.36
Betfair
3.30
Unibet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.28
Under
Pinnacle
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Betano
1.32
BetVictor
1.30
Le Mans over/under 2.5
Over
16.5%
@ 8.67+5.7%
Under
83.5%
@ 1.05-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
1xBet
8.50
Unibet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.50
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Le Mans over/under 3.5
Over
5.3%
@ 20.75+0.7%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.01-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Nice, so a minus line means Nice give that many goals of a start and Le Mans receive them. At -1, Nice must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nice win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Nice)
Nice -2
9.6%
@ 6.51-4.2%
Draw -2
13.2%
@ 5.14-4.2%
Le Mans +2
77.2%
@ 1.31+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Unibet
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.05
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.20
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
5.00
Away
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Handicap -1 (Nice)
Nice -1
22.8%
@ 3.17-5.6%
Draw -1
20.1%
@ 3.56-5.2%
Le Mans +1
57.2%
@ 1.94+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Unibet
3.15
Marathonbet
3.15
10Bet
3.10
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.60
Marathonbet
3.55
10Bet
3.50
Unibet
3.40
Away
Marathonbet
1.99
10Bet
1.95
Unibet
1.92
Bet365
1.91
Betfair
1.91
Handicap +1 (Nice)
Nice +1
68.8%
@ 1.21-5.7%
Draw +1
16.6%
@ 5.71+0.8%
Le Mans -1
14.5%
@ 9.34+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Draw
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.55
10Bet
5.50
Unibet
5.50
Away
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
9.50
10Bet
9.00
Unibet
9.00
Marathonbet
8.20
Handicap +2 (Nice)
Nice +2
85.5%
@ 1.04-3.5%
Draw +2
9.3%
@ 12.50+1.9%
Le Mans -2
5.2%
@ 26.00+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
Away
Bet365
26.00
Betfair
26.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nice
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.77
0.36
0.71
0.38
0.81
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.20
0.80
0.27
0.73
0.14
0.86
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Le Mans) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Le Mans
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.47
0.62
0.15
0.94
0.71
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.25
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (24)
0.79
0.29
0.55
0.00
1.00
0.54
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Nice) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.5%
@ 1.37+2.1%
Under 0.5
29.5%
@ 2.96-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
BetVictor
1.37
Pinnacle
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.18
William Hil
3.10
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
1xBet
2.98
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.9%
@ 2.72+1.5%
Under 1.5
64.1%
@ 1.43-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.85
Unibet
2.80
Pinnacle
2.79
Marathonbet
2.76
1xBet
2.76
Under
Pinnacle
1.45
William Hil
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.6%
@ 6.78+0.8%
Under 2.5
85.4%
@ 1.08-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.50
Bet365
7.00
William Hil
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Under
William Hil
1.11
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nice over/under 0.5 HT
Over
54.3%
@ 1.78+1.9%
Under
45.7%
@ 1.96-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
Pinnacle
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Unibet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
Under
Pinnacle
2.05
1xBet
1.96
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Betano
1.93
Nice over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.2%
@ 4.84-0.9%
Under
81.8%
@ 1.14+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
1xBet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.70
Under
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Nice over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.6%
@ 10.50-6.4%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.03+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Le Mans over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.3%
@ 2.52-0.7%
Under
63.7%
@ 1.48+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.62
Unibet
2.55
Betano
2.55
1xBet
2.47
Marathonbet
2.46
Under
10Bet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Le Mans over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.9%
@ 8.90-0.5%
Under
90.1%
@ 1.03+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.40
Marathonbet
9.20
Unibet
9.00
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
Le Mans over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
@ 14.00-5.5%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.01+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nice
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.70
1.07
0.79
0.50
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.60
1.00
0.55
0.50
0.64
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.75
2.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Le Mans) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Le Mans
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.47
0.54
0.23
0.65
0.65
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (24)
0.62
0.38
0.55
0.18
0.69
0.54
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Nice) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.4%
@ 1.22+5.9%
Under 0.5
17.6%
@ 3.97-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Under
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.05
Betano
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
53.5%
@ 2.05+7.7%
Under 1.5
46.5%
@ 1.73-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.10
1xBet
2.09
Marathonbet
2.09
Unibet
2.06
Betano
2.05
Under
Marathonbet
1.77
1xBet
1.77
10Bet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.2%
@ 4.31-1.5%
Under 2.5
79.8%
@ 1.19+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.60
Unibet
4.40
1xBet
4.33
Marathonbet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Under
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nice over/under 0.5 2H
Over
69.9%
@ 1.53+9.2%
Under
30.1%
@ 2.37-9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.54
Betano
1.53
Under
Betano
2.40
1xBet
2.34
Nice over/under 1.5 2H
Over
33.7%
@ 3.48+7.1%
Under
66.3%
@ 1.26-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.60
Marathonbet
3.48
10Bet
3.45
Betano
3.40
Under
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Nice over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.7%
@ 8.70-3.9%
Under
93.3%
@ 1.03+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.60
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.01
Le Mans over/under 0.5 2H
Over
44.4%
@ 2.07-0.6%
Under
55.6%
@ 1.69+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.06
Betano
2.05
Under
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.67
Le Mans over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.8%
@ 6.47-1.5%
Under
87.2%
@ 1.08+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.90
Marathonbet
6.60
Betano
5.90
Under
Betano
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Le Mans over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.9%
@ 12.00-4.9%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.02+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.5%
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.4%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.9%
Under 6.5
96.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+1.1%
Away under 3.5 goals
94.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-0.7%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.3%
1.03
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.9%
Home under 3.5 goals
91.2%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
+2.9%
Under 5.5
91.0%
1.03
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Unibet
1.01
-1.1%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.1%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
-
+0.5%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.2%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.05
-
-
+1.5%
Home +2 handicap
85.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-
-
-3.5%
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.4%
1.08
William Hil
1.11
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-0.8%
Away under 2.5 goals
83.5%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-5.7%
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.4%
1.22
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.22
+5.9%
Over 1.5
82.0%
1.27
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Bet365
1.28
BetVictor
1.28
+8.2%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.8%
1.14
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Unibet
1.12
+0.9%
Home over 0.5 goals
81.0%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
BetVictor
1.15
+1.1%
Over 19.5 fouls
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.6%
1.10
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
-3.9%
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.8%
1.19
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
+1.5%
Over 2.5 cards
78.0%
1.26
Betano
1.26
-
-
-
-
+3.9%
Away +2 handicap
77.2%
1.31
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Unibet
1.29
+8.5%
Home under 2.5 goals
76.7%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
+1.7%
Under 5.5 cards
76.5%
1.39
Unibet
1.44
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
+9.7%
Away over 0.5 goals
75.2%
1.45
Pinnacle
1.47
Unibet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Betfair
1.45
10Bet
1.45
+11.3%
Home or Away
74.0%
1.26
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.28
-0.6%
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.5%
1.37
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
BetVictor
1.37
Pinnacle
1.36
+2.1%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Nice · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Elye Wahi37%
Zoumana Diallo25%
Terem Moffi20%
Sofiane Diop20%
Kaïl Boudache16%
Djibril Coulibaly14%
Mohamed-Ali Cho11%
Jérémie Boga10%
Ali Abdi9%
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi6%
Antoine Mendy5%
Tom Louchet5%
Melvin Bard5%
Jonathan Clauss4%
Tiago Gouveia4%
Isak Jansson3%
Hicham Boudaoui3%
Charles Vanhoutte3%
Kojo Peprah Oppong2%
Morgan Sanson2%
Tanguy Ndombélé0%
Yehvann Diouf0%
Maxime Dupé0%
Dante0%
Salis Abdul Samed0%
Badredine Bouanani0%
Everton Pereira0%
Abdulay Juma Bah0%
Gabin Bernardeau0%
Bernard Nguene0%
Brad-Hamilton Mantsounga0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Elye Wahi32%
Charles Vanhoutte26%
Antoine Mendy22%
Hicham Boudaoui22%
Brad-Hamilton Mantsounga20%
Abdulay Juma Bah20%
Tiago Gouveia16%
Salis Abdul Samed14%
Kojo Peprah Oppong14%
Melvin Bard14%
Morgan Sanson13%
Sofiane Diop11%
Dante11%
Kaïl Boudache11%
Isak Jansson10%
Ali Abdi9%
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi9%
Bernard Nguene8%
Mohamed-Ali Cho8%
Maxime Dupé7%
Tom Louchet7%
Jonathan Clauss7%
Yehvann Diouf3%
Tanguy Ndombélé0%
Jérémie Boga0%
Terem Moffi0%
Badredine Bouanani0%
Zoumana Diallo0%
Everton Pereira0%
Gabin Bernardeau0%
Djibril Coulibaly0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jonathan Clauss24%
Mohamed-Ali Cho11%
Elye Wahi11%
Jérémie Boga10%
Charles Vanhoutte8%
Tanguy Ndombélé8%
Sofiane Diop7%
Hicham Boudaoui6%
Dante5%
Tom Louchet5%
Morgan Sanson4%
Salis Abdul Samed4%
Melvin Bard2%
Yehvann Diouf0%
Maxime Dupé0%
Ali Abdi0%
Terem Moffi0%
Isak Jansson0%
Tiago Gouveia0%
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi0%
Antoine Mendy0%
Badredine Bouanani0%
Zoumana Diallo0%
Kojo Peprah Oppong0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Everton Pereira0%
Abdulay Juma Bah0%
Gabin Bernardeau0%
Bernard Nguene0%
Djibril Coulibaly0%
Brad-Hamilton Mantsounga0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Elye Wahi21%
Sofiane Diop13%
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi9%
Mohamed-Ali Cho8%
Tiago Gouveia8%
Terem Moffi7%
Hicham Boudaoui6%
Ali Abdi6%
Jérémie Boga5%
Isak Jansson3%
Antoine Mendy2%
Tom Louchet2%
Tanguy Ndombélé0%
Morgan Sanson0%
Charles Vanhoutte0%
Yehvann Diouf0%
Maxime Dupé0%
Dante0%
Jonathan Clauss0%
Salis Abdul Samed0%
Melvin Bard0%
Badredine Bouanani0%
Zoumana Diallo0%
Kojo Peprah Oppong0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Everton Pereira0%
Abdulay Juma Bah0%
Gabin Bernardeau0%
Bernard Nguene0%
Djibril Coulibaly0%
Brad-Hamilton Mantsounga0%
Le Mans · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dame Gueye25%
Antoine Rabillard21%
Erwan Colas20%
William Harhouz18%
Lucas Bretelle15%
Samuel Yohou12%
Jean Vercruysse11%
Lucas Buades10%
Taylor Luvambo8%
Milan Robin7%
Théo Eyoum7%
Lucas Calodat6%
Edwin Quarshie6%
Anthony Ribelin5%
Isaac Cossier4%
Harold Voyer4%
Martin Rossignol4%
Alexandre Lauray0%
Baptiste Guillaume0%
Nicolas Kocik0%
Leroy Abanda0%
Ewan Hatfout0%
Théo Eyoum0%
Brice Oggad0%
Mathis Hamdi0%
Malang Gomes0%
Noa Boissé0%
Adil Bourabaa0%
Izhak Hammoudi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mathis Hamdi50%
Malang Gomes50%
Alexandre Lauray40%
Samuel Yohou26%
Martin Rossignol22%
Izhak Hammoudi20%
Anthony Ribelin19%
Harold Voyer19%
Lucas Buades17%
Nicolas Kocik16%
Noa Boissé15%
Isaac Cossier15%
Leroy Abanda14%
Edwin Quarshie11%
Jean Vercruysse11%
Milan Robin10%
Théo Eyoum9%
Brice Oggad9%
William Harhouz9%
Lucas Calodat9%
Taylor Luvambo8%
Lucas Bretelle8%
Adil Bourabaa7%
Erwan Colas7%
Antoine Rabillard6%
Dame Gueye6%
Baptiste Guillaume0%
Ewan Hatfout0%
Théo Eyoum0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Brice Oggad18%
Leroy Abanda14%
Antoine Rabillard12%
Lucas Calodat12%
Dame Gueye11%
Lucas Buades10%
Erwan Colas10%
Milan Robin10%
Lucas Bretelle8%
Adil Bourabaa7%
Alexandre Lauray6%
William Harhouz5%
Martin Rossignol4%
Edwin Quarshie3%
Samuel Yohou0%
Baptiste Guillaume0%
Nicolas Kocik0%
Anthony Ribelin0%
Jean Vercruysse0%
Harold Voyer0%
Taylor Luvambo0%
Ewan Hatfout0%
Théo Eyoum0%
Mathis Hamdi0%
Malang Gomes0%
Noa Boissé0%
Isaac Cossier0%
Théo Eyoum0%
Izhak Hammoudi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dame Gueye14%
Erwan Colas10%
Antoine Rabillard9%
Taylor Luvambo8%
Lucas Bretelle8%
Adil Bourabaa7%
Martin Rossignol4%
Milan Robin3%
Lucas Calodat3%
Alexandre Lauray0%
Samuel Yohou0%
Lucas Buades0%
Baptiste Guillaume0%
Nicolas Kocik0%
Edwin Quarshie0%
Anthony Ribelin0%
Jean Vercruysse0%
Leroy Abanda0%
Harold Voyer0%
Ewan Hatfout0%
Théo Eyoum0%
Brice Oggad0%
Mathis Hamdi0%
William Harhouz0%
Malang Gomes0%
Noa Boissé0%
Isaac Cossier0%
Théo Eyoum0%
Izhak Hammoudi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Nice's squad is €128m more valuable than Le Mans's (€152m vs €24m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Nice's attack is €58m more valuable than Le Mans's (€62m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Nice's midfield is €26m more valuable than Le Mans's (€31m vs €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Nice's defence is €45m more valuable than Le Mans's (€60m vs €15m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Lille
Monaco
Paris FC
Lyon
Rennes
Estac Troyes
Lens
Marseille
Angers
Strasbourg
Stade Brestois 29
Paris Saint Germain
Le Havre
Lorient
Toulouse
Auxerre