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Nice vs Metz Result & Analysis

Date: 17/05/2026
Time: 19:00
Final 0-0
Nice
Nice
Vs
55%
22%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Metz
Metz
France: Ligue 1
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Nice a 55% win probability against Metz in the France: Ligue 1 on 2026-05-17, with 22% for the draw and 23% for Metz. The model estimates around 3.6 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (21%) and 2-1 the most likely scoreline (9.3%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (88%).

Results analysis

Nice finished 0-0 against Metz (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 55% home win, 22% draw and 23% away win. Missed: Over 1.5 (88%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nice win✗ Miss
55.5%
Avg Implied 69.6% · @ 1.34
Edge
-14.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
21.9%
Avg Implied 18.3% · @ 5.09
Edge
+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Metz win✗ Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied 12.0% · @ 7.75
Edge
+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

NiceNice

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L20W04L04L13L11D00D11D11D12LH·REN08/03A·ANG14/03H·PAR21/03H·PAR21/03A·STR04/04H·LE 12/04A·LIL18/04A·MAR26/04H·LEN02/05A·AUX10/05
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.970.932.210.751.75
vs Stronger (11)0.182.090.202.800.171.50
vs Similar (14)0.932.211.292.140.572.29
vs Weaker (5)2.001.001.501.002.331.00
Clean sheet %10% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Metz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MetzMetz

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L03L34L00D00D13L13L44D12L04LH·STA01/03A·LEN08/03H·TOU15/03A·REN22/03H·NAN05/04A·MAR10/04H·PAR19/04A·LE 26/04H·MON02/05H·LOR10/05
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.972.301.002.060.932.57
vs Stronger (17)0.882.411.202.100.432.86
vs Similar (13)1.082.150.672.001.432.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Nice) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%4%08%119%221%319%414%515%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
88.2%
Under 1.5
11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
69.6%
@ 1.54+9.1%
Under 2.5
30.4%
@ 2.36-9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
48.3%
Under 3.5
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
67.5%
No
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.3%
1-1
9.2%
3-1
6.9%
2-0
6.7%
2-2
6.4%
1-2
5.8%
1-0
5.2%
3-0
5.0%
Nice goals ↓
Metz goals →
01234
03.6%3.0%2.6%1.2%0.4%
15.2%9.2%5.8%2.7%0.9%
26.7%9.3%6.4%3.0%1.0%
35.0%6.9%4.7%2.2%0.8%
42.7%3.8%2.6%1.2%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nice goals (down), columns = Metz goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Rodez
2.00
Lens
1.94
Paris FC
1.76
Lyon
1.75
Rennes
1.72
Lille
1.72
Marseille
1.72
Monaco
1.67
Strasbourg
1.50
Lorient
1.31
Toulouse
1.26
Stade Brestois 29
1.08
Angers
1.00
Le Havre
0.97
Nice
0.95
Auxerre
0.94
Saint Etienne
0.67
Nantes
0.66
Metz
0.47
RED Star FC 93
0.00
Nice is 0.48 points better than Metz in terms of average points per game (0.95 vs 0.47).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
RED Star FC 93
2.00
Lens
1.83
Marseille
1.78
Monaco
1.78
Paris FC
1.77
Rennes
1.72
Strasbourg
1.72
Lyon
1.58
Rodez
1.50
Lille
1.47
Toulouse
1.46
Lorient
1.42
Stade Brestois 29
1.19
Nice
1.08
Auxerre
0.94
Metz
0.94
Le Havre
0.89
Nantes
0.83
Angers
0.81
Saint Etienne
0.33
Nice is 0.13 goals better than Metz in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 0.94).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Rodez
1.00
Lens
1.08
Lille
1.14
Paris FC
1.17
Lyon
1.22
Auxerre
1.31
Saint Etienne
1.33
Le Havre
1.33
Marseille
1.39
Strasbourg
1.44
Angers
1.44
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.53
Rennes
1.56
Toulouse
1.57
Nantes
1.60
Stade Brestois 29
1.64
Nice
1.74
Metz
2.28
RED Star FC 93
3.00
Nice is 0.54 goals better than Metz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.74 vs 2.28).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
RED Star FC 93
63%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Saint Etienne
52%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Metz
49%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Nantes
42%
Angers
42%
Rodez
38%
Nice is 2.2 percentage points worse than Metz in terms of average possession (47% vs 49%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

NiceNice

For 4.4 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.8

🚩 Corners

150110781735521042525677111158871477138A·AUXH·LENA·MARA·LILH·LE A·STRH·PARH·PARA·ANGH·REN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.2

🟨 Cards

601241413112112131211654222343A·AUXH·LENA·MARA·LILH·LE A·STRH·PARH·PARA·ANGH·REN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 9.7 · Total 21.5

⚠️ Fouls

3409151110714109201415712512513109824212119342217172317A·AUXH·LENA·MARA·LILH·LE A·STRH·PARH·PARA·ANGH·REN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

MetzMetz

For 5.4 · Against 5.6 · Total 11.0

🚩 Corners

160745946654763284446124111410111191081016H·LORH·MONA·LE H·PARA·MARH·NANA·RENH·TOUA·LENH·STA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.5

🟨 Cards

40222132221223133224244344334H·LORH·MONA·LE H·PARA·MARH·NANA·RENH·TOUA·LENH·STA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 11.4 · Total 22.9

⚠️ Fouls

2908810151212988121410131310131712141116252417202426232925H·LORH·MONA·LE H·PARA·MARH·NANA·RENH·TOUA·LENH·STA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

NiceNice

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.610.610.74.14.14.223.823.723.9
vs Stronger (20)11.410.712.04.23.74.521.721.921.5
vs Similar (24)10.010.39.84.04.63.525.425.425.3
vs Weaker (6)10.311.39.34.33.35.324.522.326.7
% over line58%54%62%64%58%69%58%54%62%
% under line42%46%38%36%42%31%42%46%38%
This opponent (Metz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MetzMetz

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.38.99.83.53.53.522.823.122.5
vs Stronger (21)9.28.89.72.92.83.022.821.823.8
vs Similar (23)9.59.49.63.93.64.322.823.921.5
vs Weaker (6)9.26.510.54.26.53.023.025.521.8
% over line41%32%50%56%58%54%63%60%67%
% under line59%68%50%44%42%46%37%40%33%
This opponent (Nice) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Nice
10.6
Rennes
10.2
Rodez
10.0
Paris FC
9.9
Stade Brestois 29
9.9
Auxerre
9.8
Lyon
9.8
Lille
9.6
Nantes
9.6
Lens
9.6
Saint Etienne
9.5
Paris Saint Germain
9.4
Metz
9.4
Monaco
9.3
Toulouse
9.2
Le Havre
9.1
Strasbourg
9.1
Lorient
8.9
Angers
8.9
Marseille
8.7
RED Star FC 93
8.1

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Lyon
5.1
Auxerre
4.6
Lens
4.5
Marseille
4.5
Nantes
4.4
Rennes
4.2
Monaco
4.2
Strasbourg
4.2
Lille
4.2
Rodez
4.2
Toulouse
4.2
Nice
4.1
Le Havre
4.0
Saint Etienne
3.9
Lorient
3.8
RED Star FC 93
3.8
Metz
3.7
Stade Brestois 29
3.6
Paris FC
3.3
Angers
3.2
Paris Saint Germain
3.1

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Le Havre
26.5
RED Star FC 93
26.5
Saint Etienne
26.2
Nantes
26.1
Rodez
25.8
Auxerre
25.7
Lyon
25.6
Lens
24.8
Stade Brestois 29
24.5
Toulouse
24.5
Monaco
24.1
Strasbourg
24.0
Rennes
23.8
Nice
23.8
Marseille
23.7
Lille
23.7
Lorient
22.9
Metz
22.9
Angers
22.0
Paris FC
19.6
Paris Saint Germain
19.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.6%
Under 9.5
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
50.8%
Under 3.5
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
58.4%
Under 21.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.588.2%-------✗ Miss

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (29)
€1377m
MON (35)
€447m
MAR (31)
€406m
STR (31)
€383m
LYO (32)
€294m
LIL (30)
€273m
LEN (31)
€260m
NIC (35)
€198m
TOU (24)
€182m
PF (62)
€159m
ANG (28)
€135m
LOR (30)
€128m
NAN (34)
€118m
AUX (29)
€92m
SB2 (27)
€91m
SE (29)
€82m
MET (31)
€80m
LH (30)
€75m
ROD (27)
€22m
Nice's squad is €118m more valuable than Metz's (€198m vs €80m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (12)
€540m
MON (10)
€202m
MAR (12)
€200m
STR (10)
€142m
LYO (12)
€138m
LIL (12)
€130m
ANG (10)
€86m
NIC (13)
€85m
LEN (10)
€52m
NAN (11)
€50m
LOR (9)
€46m
SE (9)
€46m
PF (24)
€45m
MET (11)
€37m
AUX (9)
€32m
TOU (6)
€32m
SB2 (9)
€29m
LH (8)
€16m
ROD (7)
€7m
Nice's attack is €48m more valuable than Metz's (€85m vs €37m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
STR (9)
€109m
MON (8)
€109m
MAR (8)
€107m
LYO (6)
€77m
LEN (7)
€76m
LIL (5)
€76m
PF (14)
€50m
TOU (7)
€41m
NIC (8)
€40m
LOR (7)
€33m
AUX (7)
€30m
LH (6)
€25m
NAN (7)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€22m
MET (6)
€21m
ANG (5)
€14m
SE (7)
€11m
ROD (10)
€7m
Nice's midfield is €19m more valuable than Metz's (€40m vs €21m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (12)
€407m
MON (17)
€137m
STR (12)
€132m
LEN (14)
€132m
TOU (11)
€109m
MAR (11)
€99m
LYO (14)
€79m
NIC (14)
€73m
LIL (13)
€68m
PF (24)
€63m
LOR (14)
€48m
NAN (16)
€45m
SB2 (12)
€39m
ANG (13)
€35m
LH (16)
€34m
AUX (13)
€31m
SE (13)
€26m
MET (14)
€22m
ROD (10)
€9m
Nice's defence is €52m more valuable than Metz's (€73m vs €22m).

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Nice vs Metz · H/A from NIC
DateH/AGameScore
09/11/25AMetz Vs NIC2-1
27/01/24HNIC Vs Metz1-0
07/10/23AMetz Vs NIC0-1
23/01/22AMetz Vs NIC0-2
27/11/21HNIC Vs Metz0-1
21/02/21HNIC Vs Metz1-2
09/01/21AMetz Vs NIC1-1
07/12/19HNIC Vs Metz4-1

NiceNice

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/05/26AAuxerre Vs NIC2-1
02/05/26HNIC Vs Lens1-1
26/04/26AMarseille Vs NIC1-1
18/04/26ALille Vs NIC0-0
12/04/26HNIC Vs Le Havre1-1
04/04/26AStrasbourg Vs NIC3-1
21/03/26HNIC Vs Paris FC0-4
21/03/26HNIC Vs Paris Saint Germain0-4
14/03/26AAngers Vs NIC0-2
08/03/26HNIC Vs Rennes0-4

MetzMetz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/05/26HMET Vs Lorient0-4
02/05/26HMET Vs Monaco1-2
26/04/26ALe Havre Vs MET4-4
19/04/26HMET Vs Paris FC1-3
10/04/26AMarseille Vs MET3-1
05/04/26HMET Vs Nantes0-0
22/03/26ARennes Vs MET0-0
15/03/26HMET Vs Toulouse3-4
08/03/26ALens Vs MET3-0
01/03/26HMET Vs Stade Brestois 290-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Nice
Nice
France: Ligue 1
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDDL0.92
HomeLLLDD1.17
AwayWLDDL0.69
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%29%19%
AVG goals2.902.962.85
Over 1.5 %78%75%81%
Over 2.5 %54%50%58%
Over 3.5 %40%46%35%
Scored1.141.291.00
Conceded1.761.671.85
BTTS54%50%58%
Clean Sheet14%21%8%
Corners10.6210.5810.65
Cards4.124.084.15
Metz
Metz
France: Ligue 1
Recent: 0 Wins / 3 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLL0.90
HomeLDLLL0.88
AwayLLDLD0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%19%25%
AVG goals3.443.043.88
Over 1.5 %80%69%92%
Over 2.5 %70%58%83%
Over 3.5 %48%42%54%
Scored1.361.271.46
Conceded2.081.772.42
BTTS62%58%67%
Clean Sheet14%19%8%
Corners9.358.929.79
Cards3.743.963.54

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Paris FCParis FC70123
51%
1.8
12482+42
2.9
76%
60%
31%
9.6
49%
3.2
33%
19.8
37%
159
4550631.81.2
50%
2Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain3476
71%
2.2
7429+45
3.0
76%
62%
32%
9.5
41%
2.9
26%
18.6
26%
1377
5404304072.20.9
69%
3LensLens3670
61%
1.9
6639+27
2.9
83%
61%
28%
10.2
50%
4.4
66%
24.1
56%
260
52761321.81.1
51%
4LyonLyon3663
53%
1.8
5744+13
2.8
67%
58%
33%
11.0
53%
4.9
72%
25.9
75%
294
13877791.61.2
55%
5MarseilleMarseille3662
53%
1.7
6450+14
3.2
72%
61%
42%
8.7
36%
4.4
71%
23.8
58%
406
200107991.81.4
57%
6LilleLille3662
50%
1.7
5341+12
2.6
67%
39%
19%
9.4
42%
4.4
64%
24.1
67%
273
13076681.51.1
56%
7RennesRennes3662
50%
1.7
6256+6
3.3
83%
72%
53%
10.8
64%
4.2
65%
24.0
67%
0
0001.71.6
54%
8MonacoMonaco3660
50%
1.7
6455+9
3.3
72%
64%
53%
9.4
47%
4.2
64%
23.6
64%
447
2021091371.81.5
54%
9StrasbourgStrasbourg3654
42%
1.5
6252+10
3.2
78%
67%
36%
8.8
44%
3.7
53%
23.9
72%
383
1421091321.71.4
54%
10LorientLorient3647
31%
1.3
5154-3
2.9
89%
44%
36%
9.0
47%
4.0
51%
22.5
47%
128
4633481.41.5
45%
11ToulouseToulouse3544
34%
1.3
5155-4
3.0
69%
57%
37%
9.6
54%
4.3
66%
25.1
77%
182
32411091.51.6
42%
12Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 293639
28%
1.1
4359-16
2.8
81%
50%
28%
9.8
47%
3.6
51%
24.0
61%
91
2922391.21.6
43%
13AngersAngers3636
25%
1.0
2952-23
2.2
64%
31%
17%
8.9
42%
3.1
42%
21.8
50%
135
8614350.81.4
42%
14NiceNice3836
21%
0.9
4166-25
2.8
74%
50%
42%
10.7
66%
3.9
55%
23.3
50%
198
8540731.11.7
47%
15Le HavreLe Havre3635
19%
1.0
3248-16
2.2
61%
33%
17%
9.0
44%
4.2
61%
27.4
92%
75
1625340.91.3
47%
16AuxerreAuxerre3634
22%
0.9
3447-13
2.2
61%
42%
25%
9.5
42%
4.8
69%
27.1
86%
92
3230310.91.3
44%
17NantesNantes3523
14%
0.7
2956-27
2.4
66%
46%
20%
9.5
49%
4.5
69%
26.2
80%
118
5023450.81.6
42%
18MetzMetz3617
8%
0.5
3482-48
3.2
75%
64%
42%
9.3
39%
3.4
50%
22.5
58%
80
3721220.92.3
49%
19RodezRodez24
50%
2.0
32+1
2.5
50%
50%
50%
8.0
50%
3.5
50%
24.5
100%
22
7791.51.0
38%
20Saint EtienneSaint Etienne32
0%
0.7
14-3
1.7
33%
33%
33%
11.0
100%
1.7
0%
19.3
33%
82
4611260.31.3
52%
21RED Star FC 93RED Star FC 9310
0%
0.0
23-1
5.0
100%
100%
100%
5.0
0%
5.0
100%
23.0
100%
0
0002.03.0
63%
France: Ligue 1 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →

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