This opponent (Arka Gdynia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arka Gdynia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.13
1.47
0.93
1.60
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.45
1.35
1.42
1.08
1.50
1.75
vs Weaker (10)
1.70
0.70
1.67
0.33
1.71
0.86
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Nieciecza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.1%
Under 1.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.9%
Under 2.5
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.6%
Under 3.5
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.1%
No
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
1-2
8.7%
2-1 ✓
8.0%
0-1
7.0%
0-0
6.5%
1-0
6.4%
0-2
6.2%
2-2
6.1%
Nieciecza goals ↓
Arka Gdynia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
7.0%
6.2%
3.2%
1.2%
1
6.4%
13%
8.7%
4.4%
1.7%
2
5.3%
8.0%
6.1%
3.1%
1.2%
3
2.5%
3.8%
2.9%
1.4%
0.6%
4
0.9%
1.3%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nieciecza goals (down), columns = Arka Gdynia goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lechia Gdansk
2.00
GKS Katowice
1.82
Arka Gdynia
1.81
Motor Lublin
1.67
Górnik Łęczna
1.60
Odra Opole
1.51
Miedz Legnica
1.50
Tychy 71
1.50
Wisla Plock
1.50
Wisla Krakow
1.47
Stal Rzeszów
1.41
Chrobry Głogów
1.24
Znicz Pruszków
1.24
Nieciecza
1.21
Polonia Warszawa
1.03
Resovia Rzeszów
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.68
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.47
Nieciecza is 0.60 points worse than Arka Gdynia in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.81).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
GKS Katowice
2.00
Wisla Krakow
1.82
Lechia Gdansk
1.76
Nieciecza
1.65
Arka Gdynia
1.58
Stal Rzeszów
1.56
Miedz Legnica
1.53
Motor Lublin
1.42
Wisla Plock
1.35
Tychy 71
1.26
Odra Opole
1.26
Polonia Warszawa
1.21
Resovia Rzeszów
1.15
Chrobry Głogów
1.03
Górnik Łęczna
1.00
Znicz Pruszków
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.76
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.62
Nieciecza is 0.06 goals better than Arka Gdynia in terms of goals scored per game (1.65 vs 1.58).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Górnik Łęczna
0.83
Lechia Gdansk
1.00
Odra Opole
1.03
GKS Katowice
1.03
Arka Gdynia
1.06
Miedz Legnica
1.06
Motor Lublin
1.19
Znicz Pruszków
1.29
Wisla Plock
1.35
Tychy 71
1.38
Chrobry Głogów
1.44
Polonia Warszawa
1.47
Wisla Krakow
1.47
Nieciecza
1.53
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.62
Podbeskidzie
1.74
Stal Rzeszów
1.76
Resovia Rzeszów
1.76
Nieciecza is 0.47 goals worse than Arka Gdynia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.06).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nieciecza
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.50
0.69
0.44
0.86
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.42
0.64
0.36
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Arka Gdynia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arka Gdynia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.93
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.80
0.58
0.75
0.88
0.88
vs Weaker (10)
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.57
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Nieciecza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nieciecza over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nieciecza over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nieciecza over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nieciecza
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.73
1.00
0.69
0.93
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.96
0.81
1.00
0.79
0.92
0.83
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Arka Gdynia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arka Gdynia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.47
0.80
0.33
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.55
0.83
0.33
0.62
0.88
vs Weaker (10)
0.70
0.30
0.67
0.33
0.71
0.29
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Nieciecza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nieciecza over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nieciecza over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nieciecza over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Nieciecza · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kamil Zapolnik23%
Ivan Durdov19%
Rafał Kurzawa17%
Jesús Jiménez16%
Krzysztof Kubica16%
Damian Hilbrycht15%
Morgan Fassbender10%
Andrzej Trubeha10%
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz7%
Artem Putivtsev6%
Sergio Guerrero4%
Igor Strzałek4%
Isik Gabriel3%
Maciej Ambrosiewicz3%
Lucas Masoero0%
Bartosz Kopacz0%
Maciej Wolski0%
Miłosz Mleczko0%
Radu Boboc0%
Adrián Chovan0%
Dominik Biniek0%
Miłosz Matysik0%
Wojciech Jakubik0%
Diego Deisadze0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Artem Putivtsev33%
Krzysztof Kubica28%
Maciej Ambrosiewicz21%
Bartosz Kopacz21%
Rafał Kurzawa21%
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz21%
Dominik Biniek20%
Kamil Zapolnik19%
Damian Hilbrycht18%
Miłosz Matysik18%
Maciej Wolski16%
Sergio Guerrero14%
Isik Gabriel14%
Andrzej Trubeha10%
Wojciech Jakubik9%
Lucas Masoero5%
Radu Boboc4%
Igor Strzałek4%
Jesús Jiménez3%
Ivan Durdov0%
Miłosz Mleczko0%
Adrián Chovan0%
Morgan Fassbender0%
Diego Deisadze0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Damian Hilbrycht12%
Radu Boboc7%
Sergio Guerrero7%
Jesús Jiménez6%
Ivan Durdov6%
Maciej Ambrosiewicz6%
Lucas Masoero5%
Maciej Wolski5%
Wojciech Jakubik4%
Krzysztof Kubica4%
Igor Strzałek4%
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz3%
Isik Gabriel3%
Morgan Fassbender3%
Rafał Kurzawa0%
Kamil Zapolnik0%
Bartosz Kopacz0%
Artem Putivtsev0%
Miłosz Mleczko0%
Adrián Chovan0%
Andrzej Trubeha0%
Dominik Biniek0%
Miłosz Matysik0%
Diego Deisadze0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Krzysztof Kubica24%
Kamil Zapolnik19%
Morgan Fassbender14%
Ivan Durdov12%
Bartosz Kopacz11%
Isik Gabriel7%
Andrzej Trubeha5%
Rafał Kurzawa4%
Igor Strzałek4%
Damian Hilbrycht3%
Lucas Masoero0%
Maciej Ambrosiewicz0%
Jesús Jiménez0%
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz0%
Maciej Wolski0%
Artem Putivtsev0%
Miłosz Mleczko0%
Radu Boboc0%
Adrián Chovan0%
Sergio Guerrero0%
Dominik Biniek0%
Miłosz Matysik0%
Wojciech Jakubik0%
Diego Deisadze0%
Arka Gdynia · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Vladislavs Gutkovskis25%
Oskar Kubiak21%
Nazariy Rusyn17%
Eduardo Espiau14%
Dawid Kocyła10%
Sebastian Kerk9%
Marc Navarro7%
Dawid Abramowicz7%
Kamil Jakubczyk6%
Michał Marcjanik6%
Luis Perea5%
Kike Hermoso5%
Dawid Gojny5%
Aurélien Nguiamba0%
Tornike Gaprindashvili0%
Patryk Szysz0%
Michał Rzuchowski0%
Serafin Szota0%
Szymon Sobczak0%
Damian Węglarz0%
João Oliveira0%
Dominick Zator0%
Julien Celestine0%
Jędrzej Grobelny0%
Alassane Sidibe0%
Diego Percan0%
Hide Vitalucci0%
Marcel Predenkiewicz0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Julien Celestine62%
Kamil Jakubczyk29%
Tornike Gaprindashvili24%
Dawid Gojny23%
Diego Percan22%
Aurélien Nguiamba21%
Kike Hermoso19%
Alassane Sidibe19%
Nazariy Rusyn17%
Luis Perea16%
Marc Navarro14%
Dawid Abramowicz14%
Jędrzej Grobelny14%
Vladislavs Gutkovskis12%
Michał Marcjanik12%
Michał Rzuchowski11%
Dominick Zator11%
Eduardo Espiau10%
Serafin Szota10%
Sebastian Kerk9%
Oskar Kubiak7%
Dawid Kocyła6%
Patryk Szysz0%
Szymon Sobczak0%
Damian Węglarz0%
João Oliveira0%
Hide Vitalucci0%
Marcel Predenkiewicz0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sebastian Kerk18%
Marc Navarro14%
Diego Percan11%
Kike Hermoso10%
Dawid Abramowicz7%
Oskar Kubiak7%
Vladislavs Gutkovskis6%
Tornike Gaprindashvili6%
Luis Perea5%
Dawid Gojny5%
Patryk Szysz4%
Kamil Jakubczyk3%
Nazariy Rusyn0%
Aurélien Nguiamba0%
Michał Marcjanik0%
Michał Rzuchowski0%
Serafin Szota0%
Szymon Sobczak0%
Damian Węglarz0%
João Oliveira0%
Dominick Zator0%
Julien Celestine0%
Dawid Kocyła0%
Jędrzej Grobelny0%
Alassane Sidibe0%
Eduardo Espiau0%
Hide Vitalucci0%
Marcel Predenkiewicz0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Vladislavs Gutkovskis31%
Oskar Kubiak14%
Nazariy Rusyn13%
Dawid Abramowicz7%
Kamil Jakubczyk6%
Sebastian Kerk6%
Kike Hermoso5%
Eduardo Espiau3%
Dawid Kocyła3%
Marc Navarro0%
Aurélien Nguiamba0%
Tornike Gaprindashvili0%
Michał Marcjanik0%
Patryk Szysz0%
Dawid Gojny0%
Michał Rzuchowski0%
Serafin Szota0%
Szymon Sobczak0%
Damian Węglarz0%
Luis Perea0%
João Oliveira0%
Dominick Zator0%
Julien Celestine0%
Jędrzej Grobelny0%
Alassane Sidibe0%
Diego Percan0%
Hide Vitalucci0%
Marcel Predenkiewicz0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
ML (20)
€19m
WK (24)
€13m
GK (26)
€13m
WP (25)
€12m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
POD (5)
€1m
Nieciecza's squad is €2m less valuable than Arka Gdynia's (€4m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
ML (10)
€10m
WK (8)
€6m
WP (7)
€4m
GK (7)
€3m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
POD (1)
€0m
Nieciecza and Arka Gdynia have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GK (10)
€6m
LG (3)
€5m
WP (9)
€3m
ML (2)
€2m
WK (4)
€2m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
Nieciecza and Arka Gdynia have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ML (8)
€6m
WP (9)
€6m
WK (12)
€5m
GK (9)
€4m
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
POD (2)
€0m
Nieciecza's defence is €2m less valuable than Arka Gdynia's (€1m vs €2m).
Poland: I Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →