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Niva vs Osipovichy Result & Analysis

Date: 16/07/2023
Time: 13:00
Final 3-1
Niva
Niva
Vs
41%
22%
37%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Osipovichy
Osipovichy
Belarus: 1. Division
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Niva’s recent five games, ending in a win over Osipovichy, set the tone for a high-scoring encounter, with the model predicting an average of 4.1 goals and a 23% chance of six or more. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 7.6% probability that reflects the balanced attacking output. Home form shows Niva scoring 1.23 and conceding 2.69 against stronger opposition, while Osipovichy, playing away, averages 1.23 goals scored and 2.69 conceded. The model favours a home win, with probabilities of 41% for Niva, 22% for a draw, and 37% for Osipovichy. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 92.3%, Over 2.5 at 77.7%, and BTTS Yes at 76.6%. Each selection carries its own probability, separate from the match-result odds. The prediction aligns with the recent form narrative and the statistical expectations for a lively Belarusian Division match.

Results analysis

The win extends Niva’s recent run, with a 3-1 victory that mirrored the model’s prediction of a home win. The model picked a home win with a 41% probability, and the call was correct. The suggested selections were all accurate: Over 1.5 goals hit at 92.3%, Over 2.5 goals hit at 77.7%, and BTTS Yes hit at 76.6%. Niva’s form, coming off a 6-0 win, and Osipovichy’s recent defeat, set the stage for a decisive result, and the model’s forecast aligned perfectly with the final score.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Niva win✓ Hit
41.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy win✗ Miss
36.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

NivaNiva

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-534L10W03L43W43W10W05L11D11D31WH·FC 07/05A·LID13/05H·ARS21/05A·LOK28/05H·BAR03/06A·SLO11/06H·ML 18/06A·OST24/06H·MOL02/07A·SHA09/07
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.432.291.293.141.571.43
vs Stronger (1)0.005.000.005.00--
vs Similar (12)1.582.251.502.831.671.67
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %14% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Osipovichy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

OsipovichyOsipovichy

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-514L12L42W01L11D13L13L02L15L23LA·SLO30/04H·ML 08/05A·OST13/05H·MOL20/05A·SHA28/05H·ORS11/06A·BUM18/06H·VOL25/06A·FC 02/07H·ZHO08/07
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.032.430.712.211.312.62
vs Stronger (25)1.002.440.752.171.232.69
vs Similar (5)1.202.400.502.501.672.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Niva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%17%23%2%05%115%219%320%416%523%6+
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
92.3%
Under 1.5
7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
77.7%
Under 2.5
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
58.7%
Under 3.5
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
76.6%
No
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
7.6%
2-1
7.3%
2-2
7.3%
1-2
6.9%
3-1 ✓
5.2%
3-2
5.1%
2-3
4.9%
1-3
4.6%
Niva goals ↓
Osipovichy goals →
01234
02.3%2.6%3.3%2.2%1.1%
12.8%7.6%6.9%4.6%2.3%
23.7%7.3%7.3%4.9%2.4%
32.6%5.2%5.1%3.4%1.7%
41.4%2.7%2.7%1.8%0.9%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Niva goals (down), columns = Osipovichy goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Arsenal (Belarus)
2.53
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.28
FC Vitebsk
2.28
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.94
ML Vitebsk
1.91
Baranovichi
1.50
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.44
Volna
1.34
Lida
1.28
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.28
Niva
1.28
Ostrovets FC
1.22
Bumprom
1.19
Orsha
0.97
Shakhtyor Petrikov
0.69
Slonim
0.69
Osipovichy
0.16
Niva is 1.12 points better than Osipovichy in terms of average points per game (1.28 vs 0.16).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Arsenal (Belarus)
2.69
ML Vitebsk
2.62
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.34
FC Vitebsk
2.12
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.94
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.72
Ostrovets FC
1.69
Niva
1.66
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.59
Orsha
1.56
Baranovichi
1.44
Bumprom
1.41
Lida
1.38
Volna
1.28
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.03
Slonim
0.81
Osipovichy
0.66
Niva is 1.00 goals better than Osipovichy in terms of goals scored per game (1.66 vs 0.66).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vitebsk
0.69
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.75
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.94
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.25
Lida
1.50
Baranovichi
1.53
Volna
1.53
ML Vitebsk
1.62
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.62
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.75
Orsha
1.94
Ostrovets FC
1.94
Bumprom
1.94
Slonim
1.97
Niva
2.06
Shakhtyor Petrikov
2.25
Osipovichy
2.66
Niva is 0.59 goals better than Osipovichy in terms of goals conceded per game (2.06 vs 2.66).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

NivaNiva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D02L12L22D10W02L11D10W01LH·FC 07/05A·LID13/05H·ARS21/05A·LOK28/05H·BAR03/06A·SLO11/06H·ML 18/06A·OST24/06H·MOL02/07A·SHA09/07
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.210.571.430.571.00
vs Stronger (1)0.002.000.002.00--
vs Similar (12)0.581.250.671.330.501.17
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %21% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Osipovichy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

OsipovichyOsipovichy

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W10W01L00D11D00D00D11D22DA·SLO30/04H·ML 08/05A·OST13/05H·MOL20/05A·SHA28/05H·ORS11/06A·BUM18/06H·VOL25/06A·FC 02/07H·ZHO08/07
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.170.501.070.311.25
vs Stronger (25)0.401.200.501.080.311.31
vs Similar (5)0.401.000.501.000.331.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Niva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Niva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

NivaNiva

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-323L10W01L31W21W00D03L00D01L30WH·FC 07/05A·LID13/05H·ARS21/05A·LOK28/05H·BAR03/06A·SLO11/06H·ML 18/06A·OST24/06H·MOL02/07A·SHA09/07
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.861.070.711.711.000.43
vs Stronger (1)0.003.000.003.00--
vs Similar (12)1.001.000.831.501.170.50
vs Weaker (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
Clean sheet %36% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Osipovichy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

OsipovichyOsipovichy

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L02L32W00D11D02L13L02L04L01LA·SLO30/04H·ML 08/05A·OST13/05H·MOL20/05A·SHA28/05H·ORS11/06A·BUM18/06H·VOL25/06A·FC 02/07H·ZHO08/07
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.270.211.141.001.38
vs Stronger (25)0.601.240.251.080.921.38
vs Similar (5)0.801.400.001.501.331.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Niva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Niva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.592.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.577.7%-------✓ Hit
BTTS Yes76.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
BAR (21)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
Niva and Osipovichy have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
FV (13)
€2m
FDM (9)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
NIV (5)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
Niva and Osipovichy have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
FDM (6)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
A( (5)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Niva and Osipovichy have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
Niva and Osipovichy have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
NIV wins
0
Draws
0
OSI wins

Head-to-head

Niva vs Osipovichy · H/A from NIV
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

NivaNiva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/07/23AShakhtyor Petrikov Vs NIV1-3
02/07/23HNIV Vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 41-1
24/06/23AOstrovets FC Vs NIV1-1
18/06/23HNIV Vs ML Vitebsk0-5
11/06/23ASlonim Vs NIV0-1
03/06/23HNIV Vs Baranovichi4-3
28/05/23ALokomotiv Gomel Vs NIV3-4
21/05/23HNIV Vs Arsenal (Belarus)0-3
13/05/23ALida Vs NIV0-1
07/05/23HNIV Vs FC Dnepr Mogilev3-4

OsipovichyOsipovichy

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/07/23HOSI Vs Zhodino Yuzhnoe2-3
02/07/23AFC Vitebsk Vs OSI5-1
25/06/23HOSI Vs Volna0-2
18/06/23ABumprom Vs OSI3-1
11/06/23HOSI Vs Orsha1-3
28/05/23AShakhtyor Petrikov Vs OSI1-1
20/05/23HOSI Vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 40-1
13/05/23AOstrovets FC Vs OSI2-4
08/05/23HOSI Vs ML Vitebsk1-2
30/04/23ASlonim Vs OSI4-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Niva
Niva
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDDW1.21
HomeLLWLD0.57
AwayWWWDW1.86
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%14%57%
AVG goals3.714.433.00
Over 1.5 %79%100%57%
Over 2.5 %64%86%43%
Over 3.5 %50%57%43%
Scored1.431.291.57
Conceded2.293.141.43
BTTS57%57%57%
Clean Sheet14%0%29%
Corners---
Cards---
Osipovichy
Osipovichy
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.45
HomeLLLLL0.28
AwayLWDLL0.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %11%6%15%
AVG goals3.342.723.90
Over 1.5 %84%78%90%
Over 2.5 %63%56%70%
Over 3.5 %47%33%60%
Scored0.920.611.20
Conceded2.422.112.70
BTTS53%39%65%
Clean Sheet8%6%10%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Arsenal (Belarus)Arsenal (Belarus)3281
81%
2.5
8630+56
3.6
84%
69%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.70.9
-
2FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev3273
69%
2.3
7524+51
3.1
75%
56%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.30.8
-
3FC VitebskFC Vitebsk3273
72%
2.3
6822+46
2.8
72%
66%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2012.10.7
-
4Lokomotiv GomelLokomotiv Gomel3262
59%
1.9
5540+15
3.0
88%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.2
-
5ML VitebskML Vitebsk3261
59%
1.9
8452+32
4.2
94%
81%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
6352.61.6
-
6BaranovichiBaranovichi3248
44%
1.5
4649-3
3.0
81%
53%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.5
-
7Zhodino YuzhnoeZhodino Yuzhnoe3246
41%
1.4
6252+10
3.6
88%
72%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.6
-
8VolnaVolna3243
38%
1.3
4149-8
2.8
72%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.5
-
9LidaLida3241
38%
1.3
4448-4
2.9
72%
62%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.41.5
-
10Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Molodechno-DYuSSh 43241
34%
1.3
5156-5
3.3
88%
72%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.61.8
-
11NivaNiva3241
38%
1.3
5366-13
3.7
88%
69%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.72.1
-
12Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC3239
31%
1.2
5462-8
3.6
84%
69%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.71.9
-
13BumpromBumprom3238
31%
1.2
4562-17
3.3
88%
66%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.9
-
14OrshaOrsha3231
25%
1.0
5062-12
3.5
88%
75%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.61.9
-
15SlonimSlonim3222
16%
0.7
2663-37
2.8
62%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.82.0
-
16Shakhtyor PetrikovShakhtyor Petrikov3222
19%
0.7
3372-39
3.3
81%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
17OsipovichyOsipovichy325
3%
0.2
2185-64
3.3
84%
62%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.72.7
-
Belarus: 1. Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →

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