Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural Result & Analysis

The model favours an away win, with a 42% chance for Ural, 32% for Nizhny Novgorod and 27% for a draw. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a moderately high-scoring game, though the most likely total is 2 goals at 24%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.6% chance. Nizhny Novgorod, playing at home against a similarly-strength opponent, averages 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while Ural, on the road against a similar side, averages 0.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 86.7%, Under 11.5 corners at 79.8%, Over 1.5 at 80.0%, Over 19.5 fouls at 82.6% and Over 3.5 cards at 72.2%. Each pick is listed with its probability and the result status. The home win probability is 32%, the draw 27%, and the away win 42%.

The 0-0 draw shocked the pundits, as the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick of an away win, failed to materialise. The model had given the away side a 42% chance, yet the match ended in a stalemate, leaving the prediction incorrect. The final score was a goalless draw, the actual result. The model’s other selections were mixed: Over 2.5 cards hit at 86.7%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 79.8%, while Over 19.5 fouls, Over 1.5 goals, and Over 3.5 cards all missed at 82.6%, 80.0%, and 72.2% respectively. Nizhny Novgorod had recently drawn, and Ural remained unbeaten in their last five.