Njardvik’s recent 4-0 triumph over Völsungur signals a potent attack, while HK Kopavogur’s 3-0 win away from home shows they can find the net too. The model favours a home win, with a 46 % chance, a 22 % draw and 32 % for an away victory. The expected total of 3.9 goals and a 20 % chance of 6 + goals hint at a high-scoring affair. The most likely exact score is 1-1, with an 8.3 % probability, even though the total-goals outlook leans toward more than six. Njardvik’s home form shows 2.5 goals scored and 1.42 conceded against similar opposition, whereas HK Kopavogur’s away form yields 1.3 scored and 2.6 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 (90.9 %), Over 2.5 (74.9 %) and BTTS Yes (74.0 %).
Results analysis
The latest clash in Iceland’s 1. Deild saw Njardvik extend a winning streak, while HK Kopavogur also entered after a victory. The model’s favourite, a home win, proved correct as Njardvik triumphed 3-2. The pre-match odds gave the home side a 46 % chance, and the model’s prediction matched the outcome. The suggested picks were all accurate: Over 1.5 goals hit with a 90.9 % probability, Over 2.5 goals hit at 74.9 %, and BTTS Yes hit with 74.0 %. The final score of 3-2 confirmed the model’s overall assessment, delivering a solid performance across all selections.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Njardvik win✓ Hit
46.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur win✗ Miss
31.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Njardvik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.63
2.57
1.43
1.75
1.81
vs Stronger (5)
2.00
1.00
3.00
1.50
1.33
0.67
vs Similar (24)
2.21
1.79
2.50
1.42
1.92
2.17
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (HK Kopavogur) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HK Kopavogur
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.9
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.50
1.77
2.88
1.35
2.00
2.31
vs Stronger (5)
3.20
1.20
2.33
0.67
4.50
2.00
vs Similar (22)
2.27
2.05
3.08
1.58
1.30
2.60
vs Weaker (3)
3.00
0.67
2.50
1.00
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Njardvik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.9%
Under 1.5
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
74.9%
Under 2.5
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
54.9%
Under 3.5
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
74.0%
No
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
8.3%
2-1
8.1%
2-2
7.2%
1-2
6.7%
3-1
5.8%
3-2 ✓
5.1%
2-0
4.6%
2-3
4.2%
Njardvik goals ↓
HK Kopavogur goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.8%
2.8%
3.1%
1.9%
0.8%
1
3.5%
8.3%
6.7%
4.0%
1.8%
2
4.6%
8.1%
7.2%
4.2%
1.9%
3
3.3%
5.8%
5.1%
3.0%
1.3%
4
1.8%
3.1%
2.7%
1.6%
0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Njardvik goals (down), columns = HK Kopavogur goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Njardvik
2.25
Afturelding
2.00
IR Reykjavik
1.86
Throttur Reykjavik
1.86
HK Kopavogur
1.86
Fylkir
1.62
Völsungur
1.50
Grindavik
1.22
Grotta
1.14
Vestri
0.86
Leiknir R.
0.86
Ægir
0.00
Njardvik is 0.39 points better than HK Kopavogur in terms of average points per game (2.25 vs 1.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Afturelding
3.71
HK Kopavogur
3.14
Fylkir
2.75
Njardvik
2.75
Throttur Reykjavik
2.14
Leiknir R.
1.86
Grotta
1.86
IR Reykjavik
1.71
Völsungur
1.38
Grindavik
1.22
Vestri
1.14
Ægir
0.67
Njardvik is 0.39 goals worse than HK Kopavogur in terms of goals scored per game (2.75 vs 3.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Throttur Reykjavik
1.29
IR Reykjavik
1.43
Grotta
1.57
HK Kopavogur
1.71
Afturelding
1.86
Njardvik
1.88
Leiknir R.
2.00
Fylkir
2.00
Völsungur
2.00
Grindavik
2.11
Vestri
2.71
Ægir
4.17
Njardvik is 0.16 goals worse than HK Kopavogur in terms of goals conceded per game (1.88 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Njardvik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.63
1.36
0.64
0.81
0.62
vs Stronger (5)
1.40
0.20
3.00
0.50
0.33
0.00
vs Similar (24)
1.00
0.75
1.08
0.67
0.92
0.83
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (HK Kopavogur) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HK Kopavogur
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.63
1.41
0.41
0.92
0.92
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
0.60
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (22)
1.23
0.64
1.58
0.42
0.80
0.90
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Njardvik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Njardvik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Njardvik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Njardvik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Njardvik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.00
1.21
0.79
0.94
1.19
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (24)
1.21
1.04
1.42
0.75
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (HK Kopavogur) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HK Kopavogur
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.13
1.47
0.94
1.08
1.38
vs Stronger (5)
2.20
0.60
1.33
0.67
3.50
0.50
vs Similar (22)
1.05
1.41
1.50
1.17
0.50
1.70
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Njardvik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Njardvik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Njardvik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Njardvik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VES (25)
€1m
AFT (23)
€1m
TR (20)
€1m
NJA (27)
€1m
FYL (21)
€1m
HK (20)
€1m
GRO (25)
€1m
LR (25)
€1m
IR (22)
€1m
VÖL (24)
€1m
ÆGI (29)
€0m
Njardvik and HK Kopavogur have a similar squad value (both €1m).
Iceland: 1. Deild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Afturelding
Fylkir
Throttur Reykjavik
IR Reykjavik
Völsungur
Grindavik
Grotta
Leiknir R.
Vestri
Ægir