This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NK Varazdin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.80
0.47
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
1.00
0.67
0.50
0.80
1.60
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.47
0.89
0.44
0.60
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Slaven Belupo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
56.5%
Under 1.5
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
28.3%
Under 2.5
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
11.7%
Under 3.5
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
37.4%
No
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
17.1%
1-1
14.7%
1-0
14.6%
0-1 ✓
11.9%
2-0
8.0%
2-1
6.7%
1-2
5.6%
0-2
5.5%
NK Slaven Belupo goals ↓
NK Varazdin goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
17%
12%
5.5%
1.5%
0.3%
1
15%
15%
5.6%
1.6%
0.3%
2
8.0%
6.7%
2.8%
0.8%
0.2%
3
2.7%
2.3%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.7%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = NK Slaven Belupo goals (down), columns = NK Varazdin goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Zagreb
1.81
HNK Rijeka
1.81
HNK Hajduk Split
1.75
NK Varazdin
1.36
Istra 1961
1.33
NK Slaven Belupo
1.33
NK Osijek
1.17
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.08
HNK Gorica
1.03
Sibenik
0.83
NK Slaven Belupo is 0.03 points worse than NK Varazdin in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.36).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Zagreb
1.92
HNK Hajduk Split
1.36
HNK Rijeka
1.36
NK Osijek
1.28
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.25
NK Slaven Belupo
1.17
Istra 1961
1.08
HNK Gorica
0.81
Sibenik
0.78
NK Varazdin
0.78
NK Slaven Belupo is 0.39 goals better than NK Varazdin in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 0.78).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
HNK Rijeka
0.58
NK Varazdin
0.67
HNK Hajduk Split
0.94
Dinamo Zagreb
1.14
Istra 1961
1.17
NK Slaven Belupo
1.25
HNK Gorica
1.42
NK Osijek
1.44
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.50
Sibenik
1.67
NK Slaven Belupo is 0.58 goals worse than NK Varazdin in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 0.67).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Dinamo Zagreb
60%
HNK Hajduk Split
53%
NK Slaven Belupo
51%
NK Varazdin
50%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
50%
NK Osijek
49%
Istra 1961
49%
HNK Rijeka
47%
HNK Gorica
46%
Sibenik
45%
NK Slaven Belupo is 0.5 percentage points better than NK Varazdin in terms of average possession (51% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
NK Slaven Belupo
For 3.2 · Against 4.5 · Total 7.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 11.1 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
NK Varazdin
For 4.0 · Against 3.9 · Total 7.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 11.5 · Total 24.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
NK Slaven Belupo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.6
8.6
4.7
5.0
4.4
26.6
26.8
26.5
vs Stronger (18)
9.7
10.4
8.8
4.5
4.7
4.2
25.5
26.1
24.8
vs Similar (32)
8.7
9.0
8.5
4.8
5.1
4.4
27.3
27.2
27.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
39%
42%
36%
70%
64%
76%
84%
83%
84%
% under line
61%
58%
64%
30%
36%
24%
16%
17%
16%
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NK Varazdin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.3
8.2
8.4
4.6
4.8
4.4
26.2
27.1
25.2
vs Stronger (18)
8.3
8.2
8.4
4.4
5.1
3.7
24.1
26.4
21.4
vs Similar (32)
8.3
8.1
8.4
4.7
4.6
4.8
27.3
27.5
27.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
40%
36%
43%
72%
76%
68%
86%
84%
88%
% under line
60%
64%
57%
28%
24%
32%
14%
16%
12%
This opponent (NK Slaven Belupo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
10.4
Dinamo Zagreb
9.8
NK Osijek
9.6
HNK Hajduk Split
9.4
NK Slaven Belupo
9.2
Sibenik
9.1
HNK Gorica
8.7
HNK Rijeka
8.5
NK Varazdin
8.3
Istra 1961
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Istra 1961
5.3
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
5.1
HNK Rijeka
4.9
Dinamo Zagreb
4.9
NK Slaven Belupo
4.9
HNK Hajduk Split
4.8
NK Varazdin
4.8
NK Osijek
4.7
Sibenik
4.2
HNK Gorica
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Istra 1961
29.2
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
27.6
HNK Rijeka
27.4
NK Slaven Belupo
26.5
NK Varazdin
26.3
HNK Hajduk Split
25.7
NK Osijek
25.4
Dinamo Zagreb
25.3
HNK Gorica
25.0
Sibenik
23.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
42.1%
Under 9.5
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
74.9%
Under 3.5
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
75.8%
Under 21.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
NK Slaven Belupo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.33
0.93
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
0.90
0.17
1.00
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.70
0.44
0.89
0.64
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NK Varazdin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.20
0.33
0.47
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
0.45
0.50
0.17
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (19)
0.26
0.26
0.22
0.22
0.30
0.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Slaven Belupo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
NK Slaven Belupo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Slaven Belupo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Slaven Belupo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
NK Slaven Belupo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.30
1.00
0.13
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
0.20
0.83
0.00
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.85
0.35
1.11
0.22
0.64
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NK Varazdin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.33
0.47
0.27
0.33
0.40
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
0.55
0.17
0.33
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.21
0.67
0.22
0.30
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Slaven Belupo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
NK Slaven Belupo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Slaven Belupo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Slaven Belupo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
NK Slaven Belupo
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ilija Nestorovski27%
Alen Grgić24%
Ante Šuto20%
Adriano Jagušić11%
Ivan Dolček10%
Dominik Martinović10%
Karlo Butić9%
Matej Šakota9%
Adrian Liber7%
Tomislav Božić6%
Michael Agbekpornu6%
Marco Boras5%
Igor Lepinjica4%
Dominik Kovačić4%
Ljuban Crepulja3%
Luka Lučić3%
Marko Lešković0%
Robert Murić0%
Ivan Čović0%
Antonio Bosec0%
Mihail Caimacov0%
Ivan Sušak0%
Ivan Jelić Balta0%
Ivan Ćubelić0%
Antonio Jakir0%
Zvonimir Katalinić0%
Filip Krušelj0%
Leon Bošnjak0%
Marko Aščić0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luka Lučić30%
Ilija Nestorovski27%
Ivan Čović25%
Michael Agbekpornu25%
Zvonimir Katalinić25%
Ivan Ćubelić23%
Mihail Caimacov22%
Alen Grgić21%
Ante Šuto20%
Tomislav Božić19%
Filip Krušelj17%
Adrian Liber15%
Antonio Bosec14%
Matej Šakota14%
Ivan Jelić Balta11%
Adriano Jagušić11%
Dominik Kovačić11%
Marco Boras10%
Karlo Butić9%
Igor Lepinjica8%
Ivan Dolček7%
Ivan Sušak6%
Ljuban Crepulja3%
Marko Lešković0%
Robert Murić0%
Dominik Martinović0%
Antonio Jakir0%
Leon Bošnjak0%
Marko Aščić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alen Grgić21%
Antonio Jakir20%
Robert Murić12%
Dominik Martinović10%
Ilija Nestorovski9%
Adriano Jagušić7%
Antonio Bosec7%
Ivan Dolček7%
Michael Agbekpornu6%
Ante Šuto5%
Igor Lepinjica4%
Ivan Ćubelić4%
Adrian Liber4%
Mihail Caimacov4%
Dominik Kovačić4%
Ljuban Crepulja3%
Tomislav Božić3%
Marko Lešković0%
Ivan Čović0%
Ivan Sušak0%
Karlo Butić0%
Ivan Jelić Balta0%
Marco Boras0%
Luka Lučić0%
Matej Šakota0%
Zvonimir Katalinić0%
Filip Krušelj0%
Leon Bošnjak0%
Marko Aščić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ilija Nestorovski32%
Alen Grgić21%
Karlo Butić9%
Ivan Ćubelić8%
Adriano Jagušić7%
Ivan Dolček7%
Ante Šuto5%
Igor Lepinjica4%
Adrian Liber4%
Marko Lešković0%
Robert Murić0%
Ivan Čović0%
Antonio Bosec0%
Mihail Caimacov0%
Ivan Sušak0%
Dominik Martinović0%
Tomislav Božić0%
Ljuban Crepulja0%
Dominik Kovačić0%
Ivan Jelić Balta0%
Marco Boras0%
Luka Lučić0%
Michael Agbekpornu0%
Antonio Jakir0%
Matej Šakota0%
Zvonimir Katalinić0%
Filip Krušelj0%
Leon Bošnjak0%
Marko Aščić0%
NK Varazdin
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dimitar Mitrovski26%
Michele Šego18%
Leon Belcar16%
Matej Vuk14%
Luka Mamić11%
Aleksa Latković8%
Mate Antunović6%
Tomislav Duvnjak4%
Lamine Ba3%
Frane Maglica3%
Marko Dabro3%
Mateo Barać0%
Mario Marina0%
Ivan Nekić0%
Antonio Boršić0%
Mario Čuić0%
Josip Silić0%
Jurica Poldrugač0%
Oliver Zelenika0%
Jaime Sierra0%
Vane Jovanov0%
Mario Mladenovski0%
Luka Škaričić0%
Enes Alić0%
Atdhe Mazari0%
Novak Tepšić0%
Karlo Lusavec0%
Niko Domjanić0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jaime Sierra50%
Leon Belcar32%
Lamine Ba27%
Mario Marina25%
Tomislav Duvnjak25%
Karlo Lusavec25%
Atdhe Mazari20%
Dimitar Mitrovski19%
Enes Alić18%
Mario Mladenovski15%
Novak Tepšić15%
Jurica Poldrugač15%
Mario Čuić14%
Aleksa Latković12%
Marko Dabro12%
Ivan Nekić12%
Mate Antunović12%
Vane Jovanov10%
Antonio Boršić9%
Matej Vuk7%
Oliver Zelenika6%
Michele Šego6%
Luka Škaričić6%
Luka Mamić4%
Frane Maglica3%
Mateo Barać0%
Josip Silić0%
Niko Domjanić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Luka Mamić15%
Michele Šego12%
Frane Maglica9%
Jurica Poldrugač7%
Marko Dabro6%
Dimitar Mitrovski4%
Mateo Barać0%
Matej Vuk0%
Mario Marina0%
Ivan Nekić0%
Antonio Boršić0%
Mario Čuić0%
Josip Silić0%
Lamine Ba0%
Oliver Zelenika0%
Aleksa Latković0%
Jaime Sierra0%
Vane Jovanov0%
Mario Mladenovski0%
Tomislav Duvnjak0%
Luka Škaričić0%
Enes Alić0%
Atdhe Mazari0%
Novak Tepšić0%
Karlo Lusavec0%
Leon Belcar0%
Niko Domjanić0%
Mate Antunović0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Michele Šego35%
Matej Vuk21%
Marko Dabro12%
Jurica Poldrugač11%
Dimitar Mitrovski11%
Mate Antunović6%
Aleksa Latković4%
Luka Mamić4%
Mateo Barać0%
Mario Marina0%
Ivan Nekić0%
Antonio Boršić0%
Mario Čuić0%
Josip Silić0%
Frane Maglica0%
Lamine Ba0%
Oliver Zelenika0%
Jaime Sierra0%
Vane Jovanov0%
Mario Mladenovski0%
Tomislav Duvnjak0%
Luka Škaričić0%
Enes Alić0%
Atdhe Mazari0%
Novak Tepšić0%
Karlo Lusavec0%
Leon Belcar0%
Niko Domjanić0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (34)
€66m
HR (32)
€34m
HHS (29)
€34m
NO (33)
€15m
NV (27)
€11m
I1 (23)
€11m
NLZ (34)
€10m
HG (27)
€9m
NSB (31)
€8m
NK Slaven Belupo's squad is €4m less valuable than NK Varazdin's (€8m vs €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (15)
€33m
HR (15)
€21m
HHS (10)
€15m
NO (16)
€9m
NV (9)
€6m
I1 (10)
€4m
HG (10)
€4m
NSB (10)
€3m
NLZ (8)
€3m
NK Slaven Belupo's attack is €2m less valuable than NK Varazdin's (€3m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HHS (6)
€8m
HR (3)
€5m
NLZ (8)
€3m
I1 (4)
€2m
DZ (2)
€2m
HG (6)
€2m
NSB (6)
€2m
NO (4)
€1m
NV (4)
€1m
NK Slaven Belupo and NK Varazdin have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (17)
€30m
HHS (13)
€11m
HR (14)
€8m
NV (14)
€5m
I1 (9)
€5m
NO (13)
€4m
NLZ (18)
€4m
NSB (15)
€3m
HG (11)
€3m
NK Slaven Belupo's defence is €2m less valuable than NK Varazdin's (€3m vs €5m).
Croatia: HNL 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: HNL stats & trends →
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Dinamo Zagreb
HNK Rijeka
HNK Hajduk Split
Istra 1961
NK Osijek
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
HNK Gorica
Sibenik