This opponent (Sibenik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sibenik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.77
1.43
0.43
1.69
1.06
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
3.33
-
-
0.00
3.33
vs Similar (27)
1.74
0.48
1.43
0.43
2.08
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Slaven Belupo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.6%
Under 1.5
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.5%
Under 2.5
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.3%
Under 3.5
76.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.2%
No
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-0
12.1%
2-0
10.3%
0-0
9.8%
2-1
9.3%
0-1
6.6%
1-2
5.5%
3-0
5.3%
NK Slaven Belupo goals ↓
Sibenik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.8%
6.6%
3.6%
1.1%
0.2%
1
12%
13%
5.5%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.3%
4.2%
1.3%
0.3%
3
5.3%
4.8%
2.2%
0.7%
0.2%
4
2.0%
1.9%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = NK Slaven Belupo goals (down), columns = Sibenik goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Zagreb
1.81
HNK Rijeka
1.81
HNK Hajduk Split
1.75
NK Varazdin
1.36
Istra 1961
1.33
NK Slaven Belupo
1.33
NK Osijek
1.17
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.08
HNK Gorica
1.03
Sibenik
0.83
NK Slaven Belupo is 0.50 points better than Sibenik in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 0.83).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Zagreb
1.92
HNK Hajduk Split
1.36
HNK Rijeka
1.36
NK Osijek
1.28
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.25
NK Slaven Belupo
1.17
Istra 1961
1.08
HNK Gorica
0.81
Sibenik
0.78
NK Varazdin
0.78
NK Slaven Belupo is 0.39 goals better than Sibenik in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 0.78).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
HNK Rijeka
0.58
NK Varazdin
0.67
HNK Hajduk Split
0.94
Dinamo Zagreb
1.14
Istra 1961
1.17
NK Slaven Belupo
1.25
HNK Gorica
1.42
NK Osijek
1.44
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.50
Sibenik
1.67
NK Slaven Belupo is 0.42 goals better than Sibenik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.67).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Dinamo Zagreb
60%
HNK Hajduk Split
53%
NK Slaven Belupo
51%
NK Varazdin
50%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
50%
NK Osijek
49%
Istra 1961
49%
HNK Rijeka
47%
HNK Gorica
46%
Sibenik
45%
NK Slaven Belupo is 6.3 percentage points better than Sibenik in terms of average possession (51% vs 45%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
NK Slaven Belupo
For 4.4 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.3
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.5
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.7 · Against 11.8 · Total 26.5
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sibenik
For 2.8 · Against 7.5 · Total 10.3
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.3
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 13.5 · Total 23.3
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
NK Slaven Belupo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.5
8.5
4.4
4.6
4.1
26.0
26.4
25.5
vs Stronger (17)
8.6
10.1
6.6
4.1
4.3
3.9
25.3
27.2
22.6
vs Similar (33)
9.2
9.1
9.2
4.5
4.9
4.2
26.3
25.9
26.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
39%
40%
38%
62%
60%
64%
73%
76%
71%
% under line
61%
60%
62%
38%
40%
36%
27%
24%
29%
This opponent (Sibenik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sibenik
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.4
10.5
1.1
1.2
1.0
21.3
24.9
18.8
vs Stronger (5)
9.0
-
9.0
1.8
-
1.8
17.0
-
17.0
vs Similar (45)
10.5
9.4
12.0
1.0
1.2
0.8
23.1
24.9
20.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
53%
57%
50%
14%
17%
12%
59%
86%
40%
% under line
47%
43%
50%
86%
83%
88%
41%
14%
60%
This opponent (NK Slaven Belupo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
10.8
NK Osijek
9.6
HNK Hajduk Split
9.5
Dinamo Zagreb
9.5
NK Varazdin
9.4
Sibenik
9.2
HNK Rijeka
9.0
NK Slaven Belupo
9.0
Istra 1961
8.6
HNK Gorica
8.6
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Istra 1961
5.0
Dinamo Zagreb
4.9
HNK Rijeka
4.8
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
4.7
NK Osijek
4.7
Sibenik
4.6
NK Slaven Belupo
4.5
HNK Hajduk Split
4.3
NK Varazdin
4.2
HNK Gorica
3.6
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Istra 1961
29.6
HNK Rijeka
27.0
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
26.8
NK Osijek
26.8
NK Varazdin
26.1
Dinamo Zagreb
26.1
NK Slaven Belupo
26.1
HNK Hajduk Split
24.8
HNK Gorica
23.6
Sibenik
23.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
57.9%
Under 9.5
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
60.7%
Under 3.5
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
75.6%
Under 21.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
NK Slaven Belupo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.03
0.33
0.87
0.40
1.20
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
1.00
0.29
0.71
0.60
1.40
vs Similar (18)
0.33
1.06
0.38
1.00
0.30
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Sibenik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sibenik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
0.71
0.14
0.75
0.62
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.81
0.22
0.71
0.14
0.92
0.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Slaven Belupo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
NK Slaven Belupo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Slaven Belupo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Slaven Belupo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
NK Slaven Belupo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.83
0.93
0.47
0.60
1.20
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.25
0.57
0.71
0.80
2.00
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.56
1.25
0.25
0.50
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Sibenik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sibenik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.37
0.71
0.29
0.94
0.44
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.33
-
-
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (27)
0.93
0.26
0.71
0.29
1.15
0.23
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Slaven Belupo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
NK Slaven Belupo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Slaven Belupo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Slaven Belupo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
NK Slaven Belupo
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ilija Nestorovski27%
Alen GrgiÄ24%
Ante Å uto20%
Adriano JaguÅĄiÄ11%
Ivan DolÄek10%
Dominik MartinoviÄ10%
Karlo ButiÄ9%
Matej Å akota9%
Adrian Liber7%
Tomislav BoÅūiÄ6%
Michael Agbekpornu6%
Marco Boras5%
Igor Lepinjica4%
Dominik KovaÄiÄ4%
Ljuban Crepulja3%
Luka LuÄiÄ3%
Marko LeÅĄkoviÄ0%
Robert MuriÄ0%
Ivan ÄoviÄ0%
Antonio Bosec0%
Mihail Caimacov0%
Ivan SuÅĄak0%
Ivan JeliÄ Balta0%
Ivan ÄubeliÄ0%
Antonio Jakir0%
Zvonimir KataliniÄ0%
Filip KruÅĄelj0%
Leon BoÅĄnjak0%
Marko AÅĄÄiÄ0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luka LuÄiÄ30%
Ilija Nestorovski27%
Ivan ÄoviÄ25%
Michael Agbekpornu25%
Zvonimir KataliniÄ25%
Ivan ÄubeliÄ23%
Mihail Caimacov22%
Alen GrgiÄ21%
Ante Å uto20%
Tomislav BoÅūiÄ19%
Filip KruÅĄelj17%
Adrian Liber15%
Antonio Bosec14%
Matej Å akota14%
Ivan JeliÄ Balta11%
Adriano JaguÅĄiÄ11%
Dominik KovaÄiÄ11%
Marco Boras10%
Karlo ButiÄ9%
Igor Lepinjica8%
Ivan DolÄek7%
Ivan SuÅĄak6%
Ljuban Crepulja3%
Marko LeÅĄkoviÄ0%
Robert MuriÄ0%
Dominik MartinoviÄ0%
Antonio Jakir0%
Leon BoÅĄnjak0%
Marko AÅĄÄiÄ0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alen GrgiÄ21%
Antonio Jakir20%
Robert MuriÄ12%
Dominik MartinoviÄ10%
Ilija Nestorovski9%
Adriano JaguÅĄiÄ7%
Antonio Bosec7%
Ivan DolÄek7%
Michael Agbekpornu6%
Ante Å uto5%
Igor Lepinjica4%
Ivan ÄubeliÄ4%
Adrian Liber4%
Mihail Caimacov4%
Dominik KovaÄiÄ4%
Ljuban Crepulja3%
Tomislav BoÅūiÄ3%
Marko LeÅĄkoviÄ0%
Ivan ÄoviÄ0%
Ivan SuÅĄak0%
Karlo ButiÄ0%
Ivan JeliÄ Balta0%
Marco Boras0%
Luka LuÄiÄ0%
Matej Å akota0%
Zvonimir KataliniÄ0%
Filip KruÅĄelj0%
Leon BoÅĄnjak0%
Marko AÅĄÄiÄ0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ilija Nestorovski32%
Alen GrgiÄ21%
Karlo ButiÄ9%
Ivan ÄubeliÄ8%
Adriano JaguÅĄiÄ7%
Ivan DolÄek7%
Ante Å uto5%
Igor Lepinjica4%
Adrian Liber4%
Marko LeÅĄkoviÄ0%
Robert MuriÄ0%
Ivan ÄoviÄ0%
Antonio Bosec0%
Mihail Caimacov0%
Ivan SuÅĄak0%
Dominik MartinoviÄ0%
Tomislav BoÅūiÄ0%
Ljuban Crepulja0%
Dominik KovaÄiÄ0%
Ivan JeliÄ Balta0%
Marco Boras0%
Luka LuÄiÄ0%
Michael Agbekpornu0%
Antonio Jakir0%
Matej Å akota0%
Zvonimir KataliniÄ0%
Filip KruÅĄelj0%
Leon BoÅĄnjak0%
Marko AÅĄÄiÄ0%
Sibenik
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ivan Santini19%
Lovre KuluÅĄiÄ15%
Ivan LaÄa12%
Jakov Anton Vasilj12%
Å ime GrÅūan8%
Morrison Agyemang6%
Josip MajiÄ5%
Ante Kavelj4%
Leonard Å―uta4%
Stefan PeriÄ3%
Ivan BoÅūiÄ3%
Roberto PunÄec0%
Ivan DeliÄ0%
Ivan FilipoviÄ0%
Antonio ÄakoviÄ0%
Ivan Roca0%
Josip GaÄiÄ0%
Toni Kolega0%
Antonio JakoliÅĄ0%
Zoran NiÅūiÄ0%
Lovro Cvek0%
Iker Pozo0%
Bruno ZduniÄ0%
Elvir DurakoviÄ0%
Ognjen BakiÄ0%
Carlos Torres0%
Duje DujmoviÄ0%
Ivan BakoviÄ0%
Marin Prekodravac0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Josip GaÄiÄ60%
Iker Pozo37%
Ivan Santini35%
Zoran NiÅūiÄ25%
Josip MajiÄ23%
Stefan PeriÄ21%
Ivan BoÅūiÄ20%
Marin Prekodravac19%
Lovro Cvek19%
Ognjen BakiÄ19%
Morrison Agyemang16%
Roberto PunÄec16%
Antonio ÄakoviÄ15%
Leonard Å―uta15%
Ivan FilipoviÄ14%
Ivan Roca14%
Jakov Anton Vasilj12%
Å ime GrÅūan12%
Ante Kavelj9%
Bruno ZduniÄ8%
Elvir DurakoviÄ6%
Toni Kolega4%
Lovre KuluÅĄiÄ4%
Ivan DeliÄ0%
Antonio JakoliÅĄ0%
Ivan LaÄa0%
Carlos Torres0%
Duje DujmoviÄ0%
Ivan BakoviÄ0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ivan LaÄa12%
Josip MajiÄ9%
Ivan BoÅūiÄ7%
Elvir DurakoviÄ6%
Marin Prekodravac5%
Toni Kolega4%
Å ime GrÅūan4%
Leonard Å―uta4%
Ivan Santini3%
Morrison Agyemang3%
Stefan PeriÄ0%
Roberto PunÄec0%
Ivan DeliÄ0%
Ivan FilipoviÄ0%
Antonio ÄakoviÄ0%
Ivan Roca0%
Josip GaÄiÄ0%
Antonio JakoliÅĄ0%
Zoran NiÅūiÄ0%
Lovro Cvek0%
Iker Pozo0%
Jakov Anton Vasilj0%
Bruno ZduniÄ0%
Ognjen BakiÄ0%
Carlos Torres0%
Duje DujmoviÄ0%
Ivan BakoviÄ0%
Ante Kavelj0%
Lovre KuluÅĄiÄ0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ivan Santini26%
Josip MajiÄ9%
Ivan BoÅūiÄ7%
Ivan Roca5%
Ivan LaÄa4%
Å ime GrÅūan4%
Lovre KuluÅĄiÄ4%
Stefan PeriÄ0%
Roberto PunÄec0%
Ivan DeliÄ0%
Ivan FilipoviÄ0%
Antonio ÄakoviÄ0%
Josip GaÄiÄ0%
Toni Kolega0%
Antonio JakoliÅĄ0%
Leonard Å―uta0%
Zoran NiÅūiÄ0%
Lovro Cvek0%
Iker Pozo0%
Jakov Anton Vasilj0%
Bruno ZduniÄ0%
Elvir DurakoviÄ0%
Ognjen BakiÄ0%
Carlos Torres0%
Duje DujmoviÄ0%
Ivan BakoviÄ0%
Marin Prekodravac0%
Ante Kavelj0%
Morrison Agyemang0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Croatia: HNL 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: HNL stats & trends →