PythiaFootballBETA
NK Varazdin's recent form has been impressive, with a 4-game winning streak, most recently defeating NK Slaven Belupo 4-1. However, they face a tough test against HNK Hajduk Split, who have been struggling on the road, conceding an average of 0.91 goals per game against weaker opponents.
The model predicts an away win for HNK Hajduk Split, with a 39% probability of victory. The expected total goals is 2.4, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1 at 14.3%. The home side's home scoring average is 1.17 goals per game, while they concede 1 goal on average. HNK Hajduk Split's away scoring average is 1.73 goals per game, with an average of 0.91 goals conceded.
The model's selections include Over 21.5 fouls (82.5%), Under 3.5 goals (78.2% with an 8% edge), and Over 1.5 goals (70.1%). The probabilities for each match result are: 31% for a home win, 30% for a draw, and 39% for an away win.
NK Varazdin's 2-1 win over HNK Hajduk Split extends their 4-game winning run, with the last 5 results reading WWWWD. The model's selection, HNK Hajduk Split to win, was incorrect, as they were the pre-match favourite with a 39% chance of winning. The actual result was a home win, contrary to the model's prediction. The model's call on the match was wrong. The model did however correctly predict the suggested picks, with all three selections hitting: Over 21.5 fouls (82.5%), Under 3.5 (78.2%), and Over 1.5 (70.1%).
NK Varazdin| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.50 | 1.29 | 1.12 | 1.31 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.89 | 1.89 | 0.75 | 1.25 | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| vs Similar (15) | 1.33 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.14 | 0.75 | 0.88 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.83 | 1.17 | 1.33 | 1.67 | 2.33 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-4pp vs league) | |||||
HNK Hajduk Split| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.67 | 1.17 | 1.85 | 1.00 | 1.53 | 1.29 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.67 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (5) | 0.60 | 1.80 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Weaker (22) | 2.05 | 0.91 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.08 | 0.83 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
| HNK Hajduk Split goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 11% | 10% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 8.9% | 14% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 5.7% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
NK VarazdinHNK Hajduk SplitNK Varazdin| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.3 | 8.5 | 10.1 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 25.0 | 25.2 | 24.7 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 10.7 | 9.9 | 11.6 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 23.8 | 24.0 | 23.6 |
| vs Similar (24) | 8.6 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 26.1 | 25.7 | 26.5 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 8.7 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 24.2 | 26.0 | 22.4 |
| % over line | 43% | 29% | 57% | 68% | 69% | 67% | 77% | 75% | 78% |
| % under line | 57% | 71% | 43% | 32% | 31% | 33% | 23% | 25% | 22% |
HNK Hajduk Split| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.3 | 8.4 | 10.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 26.8 | 27.2 | 26.4 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 9.4 | 10.7 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 10.0 | 28.2 | 26.0 | 31.5 |
| vs Similar (7) | 10.5 | 9.0 | 13.5 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 29.2 | 29.7 | 28.5 |
| vs Weaker (38) | 9.1 | 7.8 | 10.2 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 26.2 | 27.0 | 25.6 |
| % over line | 50% | 36% | 64% | 52% | 54% | 50% | 86% | 90% | 82% |
| % under line | 50% | 64% | 36% | 48% | 46% | 50% | 14% | 10% | 18% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 21.5 fouls | 81.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 78.2% | 1.32 | 1.37 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.33 | +7.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 70.1% | 1.27 | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.28 | 1.28 | -2.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 28/02/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 29/11/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 13/09/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 18/04/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 08/02/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 03/11/24 | H | 1-0 | |
| 18/08/24 | A | 2-1 |
NK Varazdin| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 15/05/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 17/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 2-1 |
HNK Hajduk Split| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 23/07/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 16/07/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 22/05/26 | H | 6-3 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 21/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 17/04/26 | A | 2-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  NK Osijek | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 3.3 | 67% | 33% | 33% | 10.7 | 67% | 3.7 | 33% | 26.7 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 49% |
| 2 | NK Varazdin | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 3.3 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 9.3 | 67% | 3.0 | 33% | 25.7 | 67% | 11 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 44% |
| 3 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 2 | 6 | 100% | 3.0 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 13.0 | 100% | 3.5 | 50% | 24.5 | 50% | 66 | 33 | 2 | 30 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 4 |  NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 3.3 | 67% | 67% | 67% | 12.0 | 100% | 5.7 | 100% | 23.3 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 5 |  Istra 1961 | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 10.0 | 67% | 4.3 | 100% | 24.3 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 50% |
| 6 | HNK Hajduk Split | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 3.3 | 100% | 100% | 33% | 8.3 | 33% | 4.0 | 100% | 30.7 | 100% | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 58% |
| 7 |  HNK Rijeka | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | 9.5 | 50% | 3.0 | 0% | 23.5 | 100% | 49 | 31 | 7 | 12 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 8 |  HNK Gorica | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 3.0 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 10.0 | 67% | 4.7 | 67% | 26.3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 46% |
| 9 |  NK Slaven Belupo | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 3.3 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 9.7 | 67% | 3.0 | 33% | 21.0 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 49% |
| 10 |  Rudes | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 4.7 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 10.3 | 33% | 3.3 | 33% | 25.3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 4.0 | - |