NK Varazdin are favoured to win, with a 47% chance of triumph, a 29% chance of a draw and 24% for Istra 1961. The model expects 2.5 goals in total, most likely a 2-goal match, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 13.7%. Varazdin, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, averages 1.89 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Istra 1961, on the road, averages 1.22 scored and 1.33 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.6%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.9%, Under 6.5 at 98.6% with a 4% edge, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.5% with a 3% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.9% with a 3% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.8% with a 5% edge, Under 5.5 at 95.7% with a 6% edge, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.0% with a 5% edge. The recent form shows Varazdin coming off a win, while Istra 1961 leaves a draw.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
NK Varazdin win
46.5%
Avg Implied 51.5% · @ 1.78
Edge
-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.83
William Hil
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.80
Draw
28.8%
Avg Implied 25.8% · @ 3.55
Edge
+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.70
Superbet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.62
Pinnacle
3.62
1xBet
3.60
Istra 1961 win
24.7%
Avg Implied 22.7% · @ 4.04
Edge
+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.33
Dafabet
4.30
Superbet
4.25
Betano
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
NK Varazdin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.23
1.60
1.00
1.33
1.47
vs Stronger (12)
1.08
1.75
1.17
1.00
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (18)
1.72
0.89
1.89
1.00
1.56
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Istra 1961) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Istra 1961
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.50
1.25
1.44
1.36
1.57
vs Stronger (11)
1.27
1.82
1.00
1.67
1.60
2.00
vs Similar (19)
1.32
1.32
1.40
1.30
1.22
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
71.9%
@ 1.21-4.9%
Under 1.5
28.1%
@ 4.00+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Under
Bet365
4.33
Pinnacle
4.25
Betfair
4.20
BetVictor
4.10
1xBet
4.00
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
44.8%
@ 1.70-10.2%
Under 2.5
55.2%
@ 2.08+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.80
Superbet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.72
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.70
Under
1xBet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.16
Pinnacle
2.14
Betano
2.12
Betfair
2.10
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
23.6%
@ 2.70-10.7%
Under 3.5
76.4%
@ 1.41+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.00
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.80
10Bet
2.75
Pinnacle
2.75
Under
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
1xBet
1.43
Both teams to score
Yes
50.0%
@ 1.63-6.7%
No
50.0%
@ 2.13+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.70
Superbet
1.70
William Hil
1.67
Betfair
1.62
Bet365
1.62
No
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.21
Betfair
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.16
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%@ 6.38+6.8%
1-0
11.2%@ 7.43+5.2%
0-0
9.7%@ 10.86+5.7%
2-1
9.1%@ 7.28+3.1%
2-0
9.1%@ 8.62+4.0%
0-1
7.3%@ 11.64+3.5%
1-2
6.3%@ 11.80+2.5%
2-2
4.6%@ 11.55+0.8%
NK Varazdin goals ↓
Istra 1961 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.7%
7.3%
4.3%
1.4%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.3%
2.1%
0.5%
2
9.1%
9.1%
4.6%
1.5%
0.4%
3
4.4%
4.5%
2.2%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.6%
1.6%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = NK Varazdin goals (down), columns = Istra 1961 goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.39
HNK Hajduk Split
1.89
NK Varazdin
1.50
HNK Rijeka
1.47
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.22
Istra 1961
1.19
NK Slaven Belupo
1.14
HNK Gorica
1.14
Rudes
1.11
NK Osijek
0.97
NK Varazdin is 0.31 points better than Istra 1961 in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.19).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.58
HNK Hajduk Split
1.69
HNK Rijeka
1.36
NK Varazdin
1.31
NK Slaven Belupo
1.28
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.11
HNK Gorica
1.11
Istra 1961
1.08
Rudes
1.08
NK Osijek
0.75
NK Varazdin is 0.22 goals better than Istra 1961 in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dinamo Zagreb
0.78
HNK Hajduk Split
1.00
HNK Rijeka
1.00
NK Varazdin
1.28
HNK Gorica
1.33
NK Osijek
1.36
Istra 1961
1.39
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.44
Rudes
1.65
NK Slaven Belupo
1.69
NK Varazdin is 0.11 goals better than Istra 1961 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.39).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
HNK Hajduk Split
58%
Dinamo Zagreb
58%
HNK Rijeka
52%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
50%
Istra 1961
50%
NK Osijek
49%
NK Slaven Belupo
49%
HNK Gorica
46%
NK Varazdin
44%
NK Varazdin is 5.3 percentage points worse than Istra 1961 in terms of average possession (44% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
NK Varazdin
For 3.3 · Against 5.1 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 11.8 · Total 24.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Istra 1961
For 5.0 · Against 5.6 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 12.2 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
NK Varazdin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.1
9.7
4.4
4.2
4.7
24.8
25.4
24.2
vs Stronger (17)
10.2
10.3
10.1
4.2
4.2
4.1
23.5
24.3
22.4
vs Similar (33)
8.9
8.3
9.4
4.6
4.2
4.9
25.5
26.0
25.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
45%
38%
52%
64%
65%
62%
74%
75%
74%
% under line
55%
62%
48%
36%
35%
38%
26%
25%
26%
This opponent (Istra 1961) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Istra 1961
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.7
9.3
4.0
3.7
4.3
23.5
23.3
23.7
vs Stronger (18)
10.3
10.6
10.1
3.9
4.1
3.7
24.8
25.6
24.1
vs Similar (32)
9.1
9.3
8.8
4.1
3.5
4.7
22.7
22.1
23.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
49%
50%
48%
64%
58%
71%
63%
54%
74%
% under line
51%
50%
52%
36%
42%
29%
37%
46%
26%
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rudes
9.8
NK Osijek
9.8
Dinamo Zagreb
9.6
Istra 1961
9.5
HNK Rijeka
9.4
NK Varazdin
9.4
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
9.3
HNK Hajduk Split
9.1
HNK Gorica
9.0
NK Slaven Belupo
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NK Osijek
4.8
NK Varazdin
4.7
HNK Hajduk Split
4.6
HNK Rijeka
4.5
Istra 1961
4.5
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
4.4
Dinamo Zagreb
4.3
HNK Gorica
4.2
NK Slaven Belupo
4.0
Rudes
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
HNK Hajduk Split
27.5
NK Osijek
27.0
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
26.5
HNK Rijeka
25.5
Rudes
25.3
HNK Gorica
25.3
NK Slaven Belupo
25.0
NK Varazdin
24.7
Istra 1961
23.4
Dinamo Zagreb
23.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
45.7%
@ 1.97-1.3%
Under 9.5
54.3%
@ 1.75+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.02
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
1.97
Superbet
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.83
Superbet
1.76
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
62.2%
Under 3.5
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
77.4%
Under 21.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
NK Varazdin or Draw
78.7%
Avg Implied 77.2% · @ 1.20
Edge
+1.5%
47%
29%
25%
covers NK Varazdin + Draw
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
BetVictor
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
NK Varazdin or Istra 1961
72.3%
Avg Implied 74.6% · @ 1.24
Edge
-2.4%
47%
29%
25%
covers NK Varazdin + Istra 1961
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Draw or Istra 1961
49.1%
Avg Implied 48.2% · @ 1.92
Edge
+0.9%
47%
29%
25%
covers Draw + Istra 1961
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.00
10Bet
1.95
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
1xBet
1.94
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
NK Varazdin over/under 0.5
Over
79.2%
@ 1.14-2.6%
Under
20.8%
@ 5.10+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Under
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.10
BetVictor
5.00
10Bet
5.00
NK Varazdin over/under 1.5
Over
46.5%
@ 1.73-7.0%
Under
53.5%
@ 2.00+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.77
10Bet
1.75
Superbet
1.75
BetVictor
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Under
Marathonbet
2.08
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.05
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
2.00
NK Varazdin over/under 2.5
Over
20.9%
@ 3.25-7.7%
Under
79.1%
@ 1.30+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.33
Superbet
3.30
10Bet
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Under
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
NK Varazdin over/under 3.5
Over
7.5%
@ 7.00-5.8%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.07+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
6.90
1xBet
6.50
Betano
6.10
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Istra 1961 over/under 0.5
Over
60.8%
@ 1.39-5.8%
Under
39.2%
@ 2.78+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.41
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Under
Betano
2.90
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.85
Marathonbet
2.76
Istra 1961 over/under 1.5
Over
24.1%
@ 2.95-7.4%
Under
75.9%
@ 1.35+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.10
Pinnacle
3.09
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
2.90
Under
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Istra 1961 over/under 2.5
Over
6.9%
@ 7.27-5.9%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.06+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Superbet
7.70
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
7.00
1xBet
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
Istra 1961 over/under 3.5
Over
1.5%
@ 18.58-3.6%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
21.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to NK Varazdin, so a minus line means NK Varazdin give that many goals of a start and Istra 1961 receive them. At -1, NK Varazdin must win by two or more to land; a one-goal NK Varazdin win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (NK Varazdin)
NK Varazdin -2
11.3%
@ 6.07-3.4%
Draw -2
16.0%
@ 5.10-1.6%
Istra 1961 +2
72.7%
@ 1.33+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Superbet
5.80
Marathonbet
5.30
Draw
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Away
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Handicap -1 (NK Varazdin)
NK Varazdin -1
27.3%
@ 3.02-2.2%
Draw -1
23.6%
@ 3.59-1.2%
Istra 1961 +1
49.1%
@ 1.94+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.20
10Bet
3.10
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Marathonbet
2.85
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
Superbet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Away
Superbet
2.00
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
Bet365
1.91
Betfair
1.91
Handicap +1 (NK Varazdin)
NK Varazdin +1
78.7%
@ 1.20+3.7%
Draw +1
13.6%
@ 6.02-1.3%
Istra 1961 -1
7.7%
@ 8.87-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
5.85
Superbet
5.70
Away
Bet365
10.00
Superbet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.10
Handicap +2 (NK Varazdin)
NK Varazdin +2
92.3%
@ 1.04+3.9%
Draw +2
5.7%
@ 12.00-2.0%
Istra 1961 -2
2.0%
@ 23.50-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Away
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
21.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
NK Varazdin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.47
0.80
0.47
0.87
0.47
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
0.50
0.67
0.17
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (18)
1.00
0.44
0.89
0.67
1.11
0.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Istra 1961) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Istra 1961
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.87
0.81
0.88
0.71
0.86
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
0.82
0.83
0.83
1.00
0.80
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.89
0.80
0.90
0.56
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.2%
@ 1.33-2.8%
Under 0.5
32.8%
@ 3.10+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.34
Superbet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Under
William Hil
3.30
Pinnacle
3.26
Betfair
3.20
1xBet
3.10
10Bet
3.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.5%
@ 2.47-5.1%
Under 1.5
67.5%
@ 1.49+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Pinnacle
2.56
Betano
2.55
Superbet
2.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.51
BetVictor
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
1xBet
1.51
Betano
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.9%
@ 5.76-5.2%
Under 2.5
89.1%
@ 1.11+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.00
William Hil
5.80
Superbet
5.75
Betano
5.40
Under
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
NK Varazdin over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.5%
@ 1.69-3.6%
Under
48.5%
@ 2.08+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.71
Pinnacle
1.68
10Bet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.17
10Bet
2.10
1xBet
2.05
Betano
2.05
Superbet
2.02
NK Varazdin over/under 1.5 HT
Over
15.7%
@ 4.31-5.9%
Under
84.3%
@ 1.18+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
Superbet
4.30
1xBet
4.30
Betano
4.30
Under
Betano
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
NK Varazdin over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.3%
@ 11.25-5.1%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.02+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
10Bet
11.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Istra 1961 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.5%
@ 2.40-2.3%
Under
63.5%
@ 1.52+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.51
Superbet
2.50
Betano
2.40
10Bet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.31
Under
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.51
Istra 1961 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.7%
@ 8.12-2.7%
Under
91.3%
@ 1.05+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.20
1xBet
8.20
10Bet
8.00
Betano
7.70
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Istra 1961 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
@ 35.00-98.7%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
35.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
NK Varazdin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.80
0.53
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
1.25
0.50
0.83
0.50
1.67
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.44
1.00
0.33
0.44
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Istra 1961) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Istra 1961
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.63
0.44
0.56
0.64
0.71
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
1.00
0.17
0.83
0.60
1.20
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.42
0.60
0.40
0.67
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.6%
@ 1.19+0.6%
Under 0.5
21.4%
@ 4.21-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Under
Betano
4.45
1xBet
4.33
Marathonbet
4.33
10Bet
4.33
Superbet
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
42.9%
@ 1.91-6.0%
Under 1.5
57.1%
@ 1.82+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Superbet
1.97
William Hil
1.95
Marathonbet
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Under
Betano
1.91
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
10Bet
1.83
William Hil
1.80
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.2%
@ 3.81-7.2%
Under 2.5
82.8%
@ 1.23+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.00
William Hil
4.00
Marathonbet
3.52
1xBet
3.52
Under
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
NK Varazdin over/under 0.5 2H
Over
60.8%
@ 1.49-1.6%
Under
39.2%
@ 2.46+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.50
1xBet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Under
Betano
2.55
10Bet
2.45
1xBet
2.44
Superbet
2.42
NK Varazdin over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.2%
@ 3.23-6.5%
Under
77.8%
@ 1.30+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.35
1xBet
3.30
10Bet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.10
Betano
3.10
Under
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.32
Superbet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
NK Varazdin over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.6%
@ 8.28-5.6%
Under
94.4%
@ 1.04+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.00
10Bet
8.50
Superbet
8.50
Betano
7.10
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Istra 1961 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
43.3%
@ 1.97-3.9%
Under
56.7%
@ 1.76+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.06
Superbet
2.05
Marathonbet
1.94
10Bet
1.91
Betano
1.87
Under
Betano
1.87
10Bet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.75
Superbet
1.69
1xBet
1.68
Istra 1961 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.3%
@ 5.96-4.3%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.10+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.60
Superbet
6.30
Marathonbet
5.95
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.20
Under
Betano
1.14
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.06
Istra 1961 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.0%
@ 17.75-3.4%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Superbet
21.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+3.8%
Away under 3.5 goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+3.6%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.4%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+5.1%
Under 5.5
95.7%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
+6.0%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.4%
1.04
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
+5.6%
Away under 2.5 goals
93.1%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
+5.9%
Home under 3.5 goals
92.5%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
+5.8%
Home +2 handicap
92.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
-
-
-
+3.9%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.3%
1.05
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
+2.7%
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.1%
1.11
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
+5.2%
Under 4.5
89.0%
1.15
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Pinnacle
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
+8.1%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.7%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.06
+4.3%
Over 19.5 fouls
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.3%
1.18
Betano
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
+5.9%
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.8%
1.23
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
+7.2%
Over 2.5 cards
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.2%
1.14
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
-2.6%
Home under 2.5 goals
79.1%
1.30
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
+7.7%
Home or Draw
78.7%
1.20
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
BetVictor
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+1.5%
Home +1 handicap
78.7%
1.20
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
-
-
+3.7%
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.6%
1.19
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
+0.6%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.8%
1.30
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.32
Superbet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
+6.5%
Over 21.5 fouls
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
76.9%
1.25
Superbet
1.31
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
-
+3.6%
Under 3.5
76.4%
1.41
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
1xBet
1.43
+10.7%
Away under 1.5 goals
75.9%
1.35
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
+7.4%
Under 5.5 cards
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
72.7%
1.33
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
+5.1%
Home or Away
72.3%
1.24
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
-2.4%
Over 1.5
71.9%
1.21
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
-4.9%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
NK Varazdin
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Aleksa Latković40%
Mario Mladenovski40%
Ivan Canjuga40%
Luka Mamić40%
Ivan Mamut20%
Matej Vuk0%
Mario Marina0%
Josip Silić0%
Frane Maglica0%
Gregor Sikošek0%
Iuri Tavares0%
Tomislav Duvnjak0%
Luka Škaričić0%
Novak Tepšić0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luka Škaričić25%
Mario Marina20%
Frane Maglica20%
Aleksa Latković20%
Gregor Sikošek20%
Novak Tepšić20%
Matej Vuk0%
Ivan Mamut0%
Josip Silić0%
Mario Mladenovski0%
Iuri Tavares0%
Tomislav Duvnjak0%
Ivan Canjuga0%
Luka Mamić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Matej Vuk67%
Ivan Mamut40%
Ivan Canjuga40%
Aleksa Latković20%
Gregor Sikošek20%
Iuri Tavares20%
Mario Marina0%
Josip Silić0%
Frane Maglica0%
Mario Mladenovski0%
Tomislav Duvnjak0%
Luka Škaričić0%
Novak Tepšić0%
Luka Mamić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Aleksa Latković40%
Ivan Mamut20%
Ivan Canjuga20%
Luka Mamić20%
Matej Vuk0%
Mario Marina0%
Josip Silić0%
Frane Maglica0%
Gregor Sikošek0%
Mario Mladenovski0%
Iuri Tavares0%
Tomislav Duvnjak0%
Luka Škaričić0%
Novak Tepšić0%
Istra 1961
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Emil Frederiksen75%
Hamza Jaganjac50%
Dukan Ahmeti50%
Advan Kadušić0%
Samuli Miettinen0%
Franko Kolić0%
Ivan Šaranić0%
Vinko Rozić0%
Mohamed Nasraoui0%
Antonio Maurić0%
Daouda Doumbia0%
Rene Hrvatin0%
Gustavo Albarracín0%
Niko Šepić0%
Nik Škafar Žužić0%
Matija Kablar0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Hamza Jaganjac50%
Samuli Miettinen33%
Daouda Doumbia25%
Emil Frederiksen0%
Advan Kadušić0%
Franko Kolić0%
Ivan Šaranić0%
Vinko Rozić0%
Mohamed Nasraoui0%
Antonio Maurić0%
Rene Hrvatin0%
Gustavo Albarracín0%
Dukan Ahmeti0%
Niko Šepić0%
Nik Škafar Žužić0%
Matija Kablar0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dukan Ahmeti50%
Emil Frederiksen25%
Hamza Jaganjac25%
Nik Škafar Žužić25%
Advan Kadušić0%
Samuli Miettinen0%
Franko Kolić0%
Ivan Šaranić0%
Vinko Rozić0%
Mohamed Nasraoui0%
Antonio Maurić0%
Daouda Doumbia0%
Rene Hrvatin0%
Gustavo Albarracín0%
Niko Šepić0%
Matija Kablar0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Emil Frederiksen50%
Ivan Šaranić25%
Hamza Jaganjac25%
Nik Škafar Žužić25%
Advan Kadušić0%
Samuli Miettinen0%
Franko Kolić0%
Vinko Rozić0%
Mohamed Nasraoui0%
Antonio Maurić0%
Daouda Doumbia0%
Rene Hrvatin0%
Gustavo Albarracín0%
Dukan Ahmeti0%
Niko Šepić0%
Matija Kablar0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (34)
€66m
HR (32)
€34m
HHS (29)
€34m
NO (33)
€15m
NV (27)
€11m
I1 (23)
€11m
NLZ (34)
€10m
HG (27)
€9m
NSB (31)
€8m
RUD (27)
€5m
NK Varazdin and Istra 1961 have a similar squad value (both €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (15)
€33m
HR (15)
€21m
HHS (10)
€15m
NO (16)
€9m
NV (9)
€6m
I1 (10)
€4m
HG (10)
€4m
NSB (10)
€3m
NLZ (8)
€3m
RUD (13)
€3m
NK Varazdin's attack is €1m more valuable than Istra 1961's (€6m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HHS (6)
€8m
HR (3)
€5m
NLZ (8)
€3m
I1 (4)
€2m
DZ (2)
€2m
HG (6)
€2m
NSB (6)
€2m
NO (4)
€1m
NV (4)
€1m
RUD (4)
€1m
NK Varazdin's midfield is €1m less valuable than Istra 1961's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (17)
€30m
HHS (13)
€11m
HR (14)
€8m
NV (14)
€5m
I1 (9)
€5m
NO (13)
€4m
NLZ (18)
€4m
NSB (15)
€3m
HG (11)
€3m
RUD (10)
€1m
NK Varazdin and Istra 1961 have a similar defence value (both €5m).
Croatia: HNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: HNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
NK Osijek
Dinamo Zagreb
HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Rijeka
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Rudes
NK Slaven Belupo
HNK Gorica