NK Varazdin’s home advantage and the model’s 74% win probability make them clear favourites, a figure driven by their strong 1.78 goals scored and 1.33 conceded at home against similarly ranked opponents. The opponent, Rudes, while solid on the road with 1.54 goals scored and 0.92 conceded, struggles to keep up at this level, reinforcing the home side’s edge. The model’s pick is a home win, and the most likely scoreline is 2-0 with a 15% chance, reflecting Varazdin’s recent five-match run of four wins after a narrow defeat to Dinamo Zagreb. The expected total of 2.8 goals translates to an average of about 2 goals per match, with a 25% probability of exactly two goals. Home win74%, draw 18%, away win 7%. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals99.7%, Away under 2.5 HT goals99.5%, Under 7.599.2%, Away under 2.5 2H goals98.6%, Home +2 handicap98.1%, Away under 2.5 goals97.9%, Under 6.597.5%, and Home under 2.5 HT goals94.6%.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved spot on as NK Varazdin secured a 2-0 victory, extending their winning streak with a decisive home win. The favourite, Home win, carried a 74% probability and was correct. The match’s 2-0 score matched the most likely outcome, with a 14.9% chance. Every suggested selection performed: Away under 3.5 goals hit at 99.7%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.5%, Under 7.5 at 99.2%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.7%, Home +2 handicap at 98.1%, Away under 2.5 goals at 97.8%, Under 6.5 at 97.6%, and Home under 2.5 HT goals at 95.2%. All selections were settled, confirming the model’s comprehensive accuracy.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
NK Varazdin win✓ Hit
73.6%
Avg Implied 72.0% · @ 1.28
Edge
+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Dafabet
1.30
10Bet
1.29
Draw✗ Miss
18.7%
Avg Implied 18.1% · @ 5.07
Edge
+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
5.60
Pinnacle
5.41
Marathonbet
5.40
1xBet
5.30
Superbet
5.25
Rudes win✗ Miss
7.7%
Avg Implied 9.9% · @ 9.24
Edge
-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.20
Betfair
10.00
Dafabet
9.80
Pinnacle
9.76
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
NK Varazdin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.33
1.53
1.20
1.33
1.47
vs Stronger (12)
1.08
1.75
1.17
1.00
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (18)
1.67
1.06
1.78
1.33
1.56
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rudes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.20
1.80
1.20
1.40
1.20
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
4.00
1.00
6.00
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (27)
1.70
0.89
1.86
0.86
1.54
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.5%
@ 1.18-1.5%
Under 1.5
22.5%
@ 4.41+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Under
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
4.60
Marathonbet
4.55
1xBet
4.50
Pinnacle
4.42
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.7%
@ 1.61-4.9%
Under 2.5
47.3%
@ 2.19+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.67
Bet365
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.62
Under
Betfair
2.25
Marathonbet
2.24
Pinnacle
2.23
1xBet
2.21
Betano
2.20
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.5%
@ 2.56-6.0%
Under 3.5
69.5%
@ 1.47+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.65
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.62
BetVictor
2.60
Betano
2.57
Under
Marathonbet
1.53
1xBet
1.52
Betano
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
40.3%
@ 2.00-5.9%
No
59.7%
@ 1.72+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
2.05
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
2.01
BetVictor
2.00
10Bet
2.00
No
Betfair
1.80
1xBet
1.73
William Hil
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Unibet
1.70
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0 ✓
14.9%@ 5.76+7.3%
1-0
12.8%@ 6.34+5.9%
3-0
10.9%@ 7.31+4.9%
1-1
8.8%@ 9.04+3.9%
2-1
8.8%@ 7.58+3.0%
0-0
7.0%@ 12.81+3.6%
3-1
6.4%@ 9.66+1.9%
4-0
6.0%@ 11.78+2.3%
NK Varazdin goals ↓
Rudes goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
2.8%
1.1%
0.2%
0.0%
1
13%
8.8%
2.3%
0.5%
0.1%
2
15%
8.8%
2.6%
0.5%
0.1%
3
11%
6.4%
1.9%
0.4%
0.1%
4
6.0%
3.5%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = NK Varazdin goals (down), columns = Rudes goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.39
HNK Hajduk Split
1.89
NK Varazdin
1.50
HNK Rijeka
1.47
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.22
Istra 1961
1.19
NK Slaven Belupo
1.14
HNK Gorica
1.14
Rudes
1.11
NK Osijek
0.97
NK Varazdin is 0.39 points better than Rudes in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.58
HNK Hajduk Split
1.69
HNK Rijeka
1.36
NK Varazdin
1.31
NK Slaven Belupo
1.28
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.11
HNK Gorica
1.11
Istra 1961
1.08
Rudes
1.08
NK Osijek
0.75
NK Varazdin is 0.23 goals better than Rudes in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dinamo Zagreb
0.78
HNK Hajduk Split
1.00
HNK Rijeka
1.00
NK Varazdin
1.28
HNK Gorica
1.33
NK Osijek
1.36
Istra 1961
1.39
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.44
Rudes
1.65
NK Slaven Belupo
1.69
NK Varazdin is 0.37 goals better than Rudes in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.65).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
HNK Hajduk Split
58%
Dinamo Zagreb
58%
HNK Rijeka
52%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
50%
Istra 1961
50%
NK Osijek
49%
NK Slaven Belupo
49%
HNK Gorica
46%
NK Varazdin
44%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
NK Varazdin
For 2.5 · Against 5.9 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 11.0 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rudes
For 2.8 · Against 7.0 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 13.8 · Total 25.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
NK Varazdin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
8.9
9.8
4.5
4.3
4.8
24.7
25.3
24.0
vs Stronger (18)
10.4
10.3
10.4
4.4
4.2
4.6
23.2
24.3
22.0
vs Similar (32)
8.8
8.0
9.4
4.6
4.3
4.9
25.5
26.0
25.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
45%
35%
54%
66%
68%
64%
72%
74%
71%
% under line
55%
65%
46%
34%
32%
36%
28%
26%
29%
This opponent (Rudes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rudes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
8.0
11.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
25.8
26.5
25.0
vs Stronger (4)
10.3
8.0
11.5
2.5
1.0
4.0
25.3
26.0
25.0
vs Similar (46)
8.0
8.0
-
0.1
0.2
0.0
27.0
27.0
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
25%
0%
50%
4%
4%
4%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
75%
100%
50%
96%
96%
96%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
NK Osijek
9.9
Rudes
9.8
Dinamo Zagreb
9.6
Istra 1961
9.4
HNK Rijeka
9.4
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
9.2
NK Varazdin
9.2
HNK Hajduk Split
9.2
HNK Gorica
8.9
NK Slaven Belupo
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NK Osijek
4.8
NK Varazdin
4.7
HNK Rijeka
4.6
HNK Hajduk Split
4.5
Istra 1961
4.4
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
4.4
Dinamo Zagreb
4.3
HNK Gorica
4.2
NK Slaven Belupo
4.1
Rudes
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
HNK Hajduk Split
27.6
NK Osijek
26.8
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
26.5
HNK Rijeka
25.7
HNK Gorica
25.4
Rudes
25.3
NK Slaven Belupo
24.9
NK Varazdin
24.8
Istra 1961
23.3
Dinamo Zagreb
23.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
47.3%
@ 2.16+4.4%
Under 9.5
52.7%
@ 1.62-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.27
1xBet
2.16
Betano
2.15
Pinnacle
2.14
Marathonbet
2.08
Under
Pinnacle
1.66
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Superbet
1.56
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
61.6%
Under 3.5
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
79.3%
Under 21.5
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
NK Varazdin or Draw✓ Hit
92.3%
Avg Implied 89.5% · @ 1.04
Edge
+2.8%
74%
19%
8%
covers NK Varazdin + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
William Hil
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
NK Varazdin or Rudes✓ Hit
81.3%
Avg Implied 82.7% · @ 1.12
Edge
-1.5%
74%
19%
8%
covers NK Varazdin + Rudes
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Draw or Rudes✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied 27.7% · @ 3.36
Edge
-1.4%
74%
19%
8%
covers Draw + Rudes
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.60
Marathonbet
3.60
Betano
3.55
1xBet
3.52
William Hil
3.40
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
NK Varazdin over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
88.9%
@ 1.06+0.2%
Under
11.1%
@ 8.28-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Under
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.00
1xBet
9.00
Superbet
7.20
Betano
6.70
NK Varazdin over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
64.5%
@ 1.39-2.4%
Under
35.5%
@ 2.80+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Superbet
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Under
Betfair
3.00
Marathonbet
2.93
Pinnacle
2.89
BetVictor
2.80
Bet365
2.75
NK Varazdin over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
37.7%
@ 2.25-3.7%
Under
62.3%
@ 1.59+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.37
Superbet
2.25
Betfair
2.25
1xBet
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
Under
Marathonbet
1.67
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.59
Superbet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
NK Varazdin over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
18.0%
@ 4.13-4.4%
Under
82.0%
@ 1.20+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.33
1xBet
4.10
Superbet
4.10
Under
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Rudes over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
44.5%
@ 1.86-5.4%
Under
55.5%
@ 1.85+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
Under
Betfair
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Rudes over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
11.8%
@ 5.39-5.4%
Under
88.2%
@ 1.12+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.85
BetVictor
5.50
1xBet
5.40
10Bet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Rudes over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 16.00-3.8%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.01+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Rudes over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.3%
@ 53.00-99.7%
Under
99.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
55.00
Bet365
51.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to NK Varazdin, so a minus line means NK Varazdin give that many goals of a start and Rudes receive them. At -1, NK Varazdin must win by two or more to land; a one-goal NK Varazdin win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (NK Varazdin)Actual: Draw
NK Varazdin -2
27.6%
@ 3.09-1.5%
Draw -2
22.4%
@ 3.91-0.5%
Rudes +2
50.0%
@ 1.86+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
3.20
Bet365
3.20
Superbet
3.10
Betfair
3.10
Marathonbet
2.83
Draw
Marathonbet
4.15
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.85
10Bet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Away
Marathonbet
1.95
Superbet
1.87
10Bet
1.83
Betfair
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Handicap -1 (NK Varazdin)Actual: NK Varazdin
NK Varazdin -1
50.0%
@ 1.82+0.5%
Draw -1
23.6%
@ 3.68-0.8%
Rudes +1
26.4%
@ 3.45+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Betfair
1.80
Marathonbet
1.78
Draw
Marathonbet
3.84
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.65
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Away
Betfair
3.60
Marathonbet
3.60
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Superbet
3.30
Handicap +1 (NK Varazdin)Actual: NK Varazdin
NK Varazdin +1
92.3%
@ 1.06+5.1%
Draw +1
5.7%
@ 10.55-3.0%
Rudes -1
1.9%
@ 23.00-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Draw
Bet365
12.00
Superbet
9.10
Away
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
20.00
Handicap +2 (NK Varazdin)Actual: NK Varazdin
NK Varazdin +2
98.1%
Draw +2
1.6%
Rudes -2
0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
NK Varazdin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.53
0.87
0.60
0.87
0.47
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
0.50
0.67
0.17
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (18)
1.06
0.56
1.00
0.89
1.11
0.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rudes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
0.80
0.73
0.87
0.47
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
2.33
0.00
4.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (27)
0.93
0.41
0.86
0.50
1.00
0.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
72.6%
@ 1.28+0.3%
Under 0.5
27.4%
@ 3.35-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Under
Betfair
3.50
Superbet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Marathonbet
3.36
1xBet
3.35
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
39.8%
@ 2.35+0.2%
Under 1.5
60.2%
@ 1.54-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.51
Betano
2.47
Bet365
2.38
William Hil
2.38
10Bet
2.35
Under
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
Superbet
1.55
William Hil
1.55
1xBet
1.54
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.2%
@ 5.40-3.0%
Under 2.5
85.8%
@ 1.12+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
5.50
William Hil
5.50
Betano
5.30
1xBet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
NK Varazdin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
61.7%
@ 1.45-2.6%
Under
38.3%
@ 2.61+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Superbet
1.44
1xBet
1.40
Under
1xBet
2.75
Pinnacle
2.69
Superbet
2.60
10Bet
2.55
Betano
2.45
NK Varazdin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
23.9%
@ 3.18-5.2%
Under
76.1%
@ 1.31+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.30
Betano
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.10
Superbet
3.05
Under
Superbet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.29
NK Varazdin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.8%
@ 8.03-6.8%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.05+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.00
10Bet
8.00
Superbet
7.60
Betano
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
10Bet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Rudes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
29.8%
@ 3.37+2.2%
Under
70.2%
@ 1.28-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.79
Marathonbet
3.40
Betano
3.35
Superbet
3.30
10Bet
3.25
Under
1xBet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.29
Pinnacle
1.26
Rudes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.8%
@ 12.83-1.6%
Under
94.2%
@ 1.02+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Rudes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.5%
@ 65.00-99.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
65.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
NK Varazdin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.80
0.67
0.60
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
1.25
0.50
0.83
0.50
1.67
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.50
0.78
0.44
0.44
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rudes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
1.00
0.47
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
1.00
2.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (27)
0.78
0.48
1.00
0.36
0.54
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
84.0%
@ 1.17+4.5%
Under 0.5
16.0%
@ 4.50-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Under
Marathonbet
4.85
1xBet
4.80
Betano
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
48.8%
@ 1.85-1.5%
Under 1.5
51.2%
@ 1.87+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.95
Superbet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Under
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.93
1xBet
1.92
Superbet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
22.5%
@ 3.62-3.2%
Under 2.5
77.5%
@ 1.25+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.00
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.60
Betano
3.50
Marathonbet
3.44
Under
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
NK Varazdin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
72.5%
@ 1.31+1.5%
Under
27.5%
@ 3.20-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Under
Betano
3.25
1xBet
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Superbet
3.15
NK Varazdin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
36.7%
@ 2.41-1.8%
Under
63.3%
@ 1.51+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.47
10Bet
2.45
1xBet
2.43
Betano
2.37
Marathonbet
2.32
Under
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.54
1xBet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.48
NK Varazdin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.7%
@ 5.51-5.1%
Under
88.3%
@ 1.11+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.75
1xBet
5.70
Superbet
5.60
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Rudes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
32.3%
@ 2.76-1.4%
Under
67.7%
@ 1.40+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.84
1xBet
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Superbet
2.72
Betano
2.72
Under
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.41
10Bet
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.36
Rudes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.8%
@ 10.10-2.5%
Under
93.2%
@ 1.03+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.50
1xBet
10.50
Superbet
10.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Rudes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 45.00-98.7%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
45.00
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
97.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.6%
1.01
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.2%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
10Bet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
-
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.6%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.05
BetVictor
1.03
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
93.2%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
92.3%
1.04
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
William Hil
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
92.3%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
-
-
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
88.9%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.03
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
88.3%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
88.2%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.8%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
85.0%
1.17
Betfair
1.20
Betano
1.19
Pinnacle
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.0%
1.17
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.17
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
82.0%
1.20
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.20
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
81.3%
1.12
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.5%
1.25
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.5%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
76.1%
1.31
Superbet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.29
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.6%
1.20
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.15
-
-
-1.4%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
73.6%
1.28
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Dafabet
1.30
10Bet
1.29
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.6%
1.28
Betano
1.33
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
+0.3%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 2H goals
72.5%
1.31
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 0.5 HT goals
70.2%
1.28
1xBet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.29
Pinnacle
1.26
-2.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
NK Varazdin
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Aleksa Latković40%
Mario Mladenovski40%
Ivan Canjuga40%
Luka Mamić40%
Ivan Mamut20%
Matej Vuk0%
Mario Marina0%
Josip Silić0%
Frane Maglica0%
Gregor Sikošek0%
Iuri Tavares0%
Tomislav Duvnjak0%
Luka Škaričić0%
Novak Tepšić0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luka Škaričić25%
Mario Marina20%
Frane Maglica20%
Aleksa Latković20%
Gregor Sikošek20%
Novak Tepšić20%
Matej Vuk0%
Ivan Mamut0%
Josip Silić0%
Mario Mladenovski0%
Iuri Tavares0%
Tomislav Duvnjak0%
Ivan Canjuga0%
Luka Mamić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Matej Vuk67%
Ivan Mamut40%
Ivan Canjuga40%
Aleksa Latković20%
Gregor Sikošek20%
Iuri Tavares20%
Mario Marina0%
Josip Silić0%
Frane Maglica0%
Mario Mladenovski0%
Tomislav Duvnjak0%
Luka Škaričić0%
Novak Tepšić0%
Luka Mamić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Aleksa Latković40%
Ivan Mamut20%
Ivan Canjuga20%
Luka Mamić20%
Matej Vuk0%
Mario Marina0%
Josip Silić0%
Frane Maglica0%
Gregor Sikošek0%
Mario Mladenovski0%
Iuri Tavares0%
Tomislav Duvnjak0%
Luka Škaričić0%
Novak Tepšić0%
Rudes
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Stefan Vukić33%
Noa Skoko25%
Xavier Fernandes25%
Ivan Đorić25%
Lenny Ilečić20%
Marko Stolnik0%
Lovre Rogić0%
Jakov Blagaić0%
Toni Kolega0%
Jurica Poldrugač0%
Diego Živulić0%
Felipe Curcio0%
Vedran Celjak0%
Bruno Unušić0%
Ante Sušak0%
Josip Pejić0%
Vid Seitz0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Xavier Fernandes50%
Vid Seitz50%
Diego Živulić33%
Stefan Vukić33%
Ante Sušak25%
Jurica Poldrugač20%
Marko Stolnik0%
Lovre Rogić0%
Jakov Blagaić0%
Toni Kolega0%
Felipe Curcio0%
Vedran Celjak0%
Bruno Unušić0%
Noa Skoko0%
Josip Pejić0%
Ivan Đorić0%
Lenny Ilečić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lenny Ilečić40%
Josip Pejić33%
Jurica Poldrugač20%
Vedran Celjak20%
Marko Stolnik0%
Lovre Rogić0%
Jakov Blagaić0%
Toni Kolega0%
Diego Živulić0%
Felipe Curcio0%
Stefan Vukić0%
Bruno Unušić0%
Noa Skoko0%
Ante Sušak0%
Xavier Fernandes0%
Ivan Đorić0%
Vid Seitz0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Marko Stolnik0%
Lovre Rogić0%
Jakov Blagaić0%
Toni Kolega0%
Jurica Poldrugač0%
Diego Živulić0%
Felipe Curcio0%
Vedran Celjak0%
Stefan Vukić0%
Bruno Unušić0%
Noa Skoko0%
Ante Sušak0%
Josip Pejić0%
Xavier Fernandes0%
Ivan Đorić0%
Lenny Ilečić0%
Vid Seitz0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (34)
€66m
HR (32)
€34m
HHS (29)
€34m
NO (33)
€15m
NV (27)
€11m
I1 (23)
€11m
NLZ (34)
€10m
HG (27)
€9m
NSB (31)
€8m
RUD (27)
€5m
NK Varazdin's squad is €7m more valuable than Rudes's (€11m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (15)
€33m
HR (15)
€21m
HHS (10)
€15m
NO (16)
€9m
NV (9)
€6m
I1 (10)
€4m
HG (10)
€4m
NSB (10)
€3m
NLZ (8)
€3m
RUD (13)
€3m
NK Varazdin's attack is €3m more valuable than Rudes's (€6m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HHS (6)
€8m
HR (3)
€5m
NLZ (8)
€3m
I1 (4)
€2m
DZ (2)
€2m
HG (6)
€2m
NSB (6)
€2m
NO (4)
€1m
NV (4)
€1m
RUD (4)
€1m
NK Varazdin and Rudes have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (17)
€30m
HHS (13)
€11m
HR (14)
€8m
NV (14)
€5m
I1 (9)
€5m
NO (13)
€4m
NLZ (18)
€4m
NSB (15)
€3m
HG (11)
€3m
RUD (10)
€1m
NK Varazdin's defence is €3m more valuable than Rudes's (€5m vs €1m).
Croatia: HNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: HNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
NK Osijek
Dinamo Zagreb
HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Rijeka
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Istra 1961
NK Slaven Belupo
HNK Gorica