Noah II, fresh from a win, look set to exploit their strong home attack, averaging 3.57 goals per game, while conceding just 1.29 against similar opposition. Andranik, on the back of a winless streak, have been scoring 1.71 and conceding 1.29 away. The model predicts a high-scoring affair with an expected 3.4 goals and a 22% chance of exactly three goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.3% probability. The favourite result is a home win, with probabilities of 45% for a Noah II victory, 24% for a draw, and 31% for an Andranik win. The only suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, carrying an 86.8% chance of success. This match should deliver plenty of firepower from both sides, but Noah II’s home form gives them the edge in the final outcome.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Noah II, failed to deliver, as the match finished 2-2, a draw that left the model’s Home win call incorrect. The model had given Noah II a 45% chance of victory, while the odds for a draw were 24% and for Andranik 31%. The game’s most likely score was 1-1 at 10.3%, followed by 2-1 at 8.9% and 1-2 at 7.3%. Noah II came off a win, extending their recent form, whereas Andranik returned from a defeat. The model’s single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, hit its target, with an 86.8% probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Noah II win✗ Miss
44.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Andranik win✗ Miss
31.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Noah II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.33
2.67
1.13
1.40
1.53
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.22
0.75
1.00
0.40
1.40
vs Similar (15)
2.73
1.47
3.57
1.29
2.00
1.62
vs Weaker (6)
2.50
1.17
3.00
1.00
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Andranik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Andranik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.43
1.00
1.80
2.00
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
1.33
1.67
0.80
2.20
1.71
1.29
vs Weaker (15)
1.87
1.13
1.38
1.50
2.43
0.71
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Noah II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.8%
Under 1.5
13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.9%
Under 2.5
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
45.2%
Under 3.5
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.9%
No
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.3%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.3%
2-2 ✓
6.9%
2-0
5.7%
3-1
5.6%
1-0
5.1%
3-2
4.3%
Noah II goals ↓
Andranik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.1%
4.0%
3.9%
2.0%
0.8%
1
5.1%
10%
7.3%
3.8%
1.5%
2
5.7%
8.9%
6.9%
3.6%
1.4%
3
3.6%
5.6%
4.3%
2.3%
0.9%
4
1.7%
2.6%
2.1%
1.1%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Noah II goals (down), columns = Andranik goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
BKMA II
2.62
Syunik
2.54
Noah II
1.92
Lernayin Artsakh
1.75
Banants II
1.58
Pyunik II
1.54
Andranik
1.42
Shirak II
1.33
Ararat II
1.21
Bentonit Ijevan
1.00
Ararat-Armenia II
0.79
Mika
0.67
Nikarm
0.04
Noah II is 0.50 points better than Andranik in terms of average points per game (1.92 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BKMA II
3.21
Syunik
2.67
Lernayin Artsakh
2.50
Noah II
1.96
Pyunik II
1.96
Banants II
1.96
Ararat II
1.83
Shirak II
1.79
Andranik
1.71
Bentonit Ijevan
1.58
Ararat-Armenia II
1.25
Mika
1.04
Nikarm
0.71
Noah II is 0.25 goals better than Andranik in terms of goals scored per game (1.96 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Syunik
0.54
BKMA II
0.71
Noah II
1.21
Banants II
1.38
Lernayin Artsakh
1.42
Pyunik II
1.54
Andranik
1.67
Shirak II
1.96
Ararat II
2.00
Bentonit Ijevan
2.21
Ararat-Armenia II
2.29
Mika
2.96
Nikarm
4.29
Noah II is 0.46 goals better than Andranik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Noah II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.47
0.93
0.47
0.33
0.47
vs Stronger (10)
0.10
0.50
0.20
0.60
0.00
0.40
vs Similar (13)
0.92
0.46
1.33
0.50
0.57
0.43
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.43
1.25
0.25
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Andranik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Andranik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.59
0.65
0.77
0.54
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.33
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.75
0.17
0.67
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (15)
0.93
0.33
1.00
0.44
0.83
0.17
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Noah II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Noah II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Andranik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Andranik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Andranik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Noah II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.93
1.53
0.73
0.80
1.13
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.80
0.40
0.60
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (13)
1.54
1.08
2.33
0.83
0.86
1.29
vs Weaker (7)
1.57
0.86
1.75
0.75
1.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Andranik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Andranik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
0.59
1.12
0.77
0.54
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.67
1.08
0.50
1.67
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (15)
0.73
0.73
0.78
0.89
0.67
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Noah II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Noah II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Andranik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Andranik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Andranik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SYU (23)
€2m
AND (29)
€1m
BI (16)
€0m
BI (16)
€0m
MIK (21)
€0m
AI (11)
€0m
PI (13)
€0m
SI (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
LA (8)
€0m
NI (4)
€0m
Noah II's squad is €1m less valuable than Andranik's (€0m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SYU (9)
€1m
AND (10)
€1m
BI (3)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
SI (1)
€0m
MIK (4)
€0m
PI (1)
€0m
NI (1)
€0m
BI (2)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
Noah II and Andranik have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SYU (6)
€0m
AND (8)
€0m
BI (6)
€0m
MIK (10)
€0m
AI (5)
€0m
SI (4)
€0m
BI (5)
€0m
PI (4)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
Noah II and Andranik have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SYU (8)
€0m
AND (11)
€0m
BI (8)
€0m
AI (6)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
PI (8)
€0m
MIK (7)
€0m
SI (3)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
NI (3)
€0m
LA (3)
€0m
Noah II and Andranik have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Armenia: First League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
BKMA II
Syunik
Lernayin Artsakh
Banants II
Pyunik II
Shirak II
Ararat II
Bentonit Ijevan
Ararat-Armenia II
Mika
Nikarm