The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected 3.3 goals and a 22% chance of exactly three goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 10.9% probability. Home side Noah II, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.29 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Away side Andranik, on the road against a similar tier, averages 1.8 scored and 2.2 conceded. The model favours an away win, with a 41% chance, while home win and draw stand at 34% and 25% respectively. The suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 85.4% probability. Noah II are coming off a win, and Andranik are coming off a defeat, adding a narrative of momentum swing. The match is expected to finish 1-1, but the odds lean toward an away victory.
Results analysis
Noah II’s recent run of WLDLW ended with a 0-1 loss to Andranik, who were coming off a defeat but had already won four of their last five. The match finished 0-1, an away win that matched the model’s favourite, which was correctly predicted with a 41% probability. The predicted total of 3.3 goals was far higher than the actual total of one. The model’s single suggested pick, Over 1.5, missed with a probability of 85.4%. The outcome confirmed the model’s selection for the winner, while the goal-scoring prediction proved overly optimistic.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Noah II win✗ Miss
33.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Andranik win✓ Hit
41.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Noah II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.40
1.81
1.31
1.93
1.50
vs Stronger (10)
1.20
1.80
1.50
1.67
0.75
2.00
vs Similar (13)
1.77
1.08
1.29
1.00
2.33
1.17
vs Weaker (7)
3.00
1.43
3.67
1.33
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Andranik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Andranik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.43
1.62
1.19
2.14
1.71
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.55
1.36
1.33
0.67
1.80
2.20
vs Weaker (17)
2.29
1.47
2.25
1.50
2.33
1.44
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Noah II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
85.4%
Under 1.5
14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
64.4%
Under 2.5
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.4%
Under 3.5
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.4%
No
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
7.8%
2-2
6.8%
0-2
5.5%
0-1 ✓
5.3%
1-3
5.1%
1-0
4.7%
Noah II goals ↓
Andranik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
5.3%
5.5%
3.2%
1.4%
1
4.7%
11%
8.7%
5.1%
2.2%
2
4.5%
7.8%
6.8%
4.0%
1.7%
3
2.3%
4.1%
3.6%
2.1%
0.9%
4
0.9%
1.6%
1.4%
0.8%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Noah II goals (down), columns = Andranik goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sardarapat
2.53
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Syunik
2.21
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Van II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Shirak II
0.60
Noah II is 1.17 points worse than Andranik in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 2.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Syunik
2.76
Sardarapat
2.70
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Banants II
1.53
Pyunik II
1.43
Ararat II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Van II
1.10
Mika
1.07
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
Noah II is 1.23 goals worse than Andranik in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 2.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sardarapat
0.60
Hayq
0.80
Syunik
0.90
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Banants II
1.80
Noah II
1.93
Ararat II
1.93
Van II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Noah II is 0.93 goals worse than Andranik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.93 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Noah II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.67
1.06
0.62
0.50
0.71
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
0.90
0.67
1.00
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.38
1.14
0.43
0.50
0.33
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.86
1.67
0.33
0.75
1.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Andranik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Andranik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.60
1.19
0.38
0.86
0.86
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.82
0.60
0.20
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (16)
1.38
0.38
1.78
0.33
0.86
0.43
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Noah II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Noah II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Andranik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Andranik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Andranik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Noah II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.83
0.75
0.69
1.07
1.00
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
0.90
0.83
0.67
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.92
0.14
0.57
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (7)
1.86
0.57
2.00
1.00
1.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Andranik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Andranik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.83
0.56
0.94
0.93
0.71
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.45
0.60
0.40
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
0.88
1.12
0.67
1.33
1.14
0.86
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Noah II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Noah II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Andranik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Andranik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Andranik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAR (23)
€2m
SYU (23)
€2m
AND (29)
€1m
HAY (13)
€1m
BI (16)
€0m
BI (16)
€0m
MIK (21)
€0m
AI (11)
€0m
PI (13)
€0m
SI (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
LA (8)
€0m
NI (4)
€0m
Noah II's squad is €1m less valuable than Andranik's (€0m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SYU (9)
€1m
SAR (7)
€1m
AND (10)
€1m
HAY (8)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
SI (1)
€0m
MIK (4)
€0m
PI (1)
€0m
NI (1)
€0m
BI (2)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
Noah II and Andranik have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SYU (6)
€0m
AND (8)
€0m
SAR (4)
€0m
BI (6)
€0m
MIK (10)
€0m
AI (5)
€0m
SI (4)
€0m
BI (5)
€0m
PI (4)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
HAY (1)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
Noah II and Andranik have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAR (12)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
AND (11)
€0m
HAY (4)
€0m
BI (8)
€0m
AI (6)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
PI (8)
€0m
MIK (7)
€0m
SI (3)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
NI (3)
€0m
LA (3)
€0m
Noah II and Andranik have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Armenia: First League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sardarapat
BKMA II
Hayq
Syunik
Pyunik II
Ararat II
Araks Ararat
Banants II
Bentonit Ijevan
Mika
Ararat-Armenia II
Van II
Lernayin Artsakh
Shirak II