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Noah II vs Ararat II Prediction & Stats

Date: 14/09/2026
Time: 14:30
Noah II
Noah II
Vs
45%
24%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ararat II
Ararat II
Armenia: First League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Noah II’s recent win fuels optimism for a home victory, while Ararat II’s five-game losing streak suggests a struggle away. The model favours a home win, with a 45% chance, a draw 23%, and an away win 31%. The expected total goals hover at 3.7, centring on a three-goal match. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 9.4% probability. Noah II, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.4 goals scored and 2.6 conceded; Ararat II, away against a weaker side, averages 1.33 scored and 2.5 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (96.7%), Under 6.5 (92.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (91.4%), Over 1.5 (88.8%), Home over 0.5 goals (86.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (85.7%), Home +2 handicap (84.3%), and Under 5.5 (83.7%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Noah II win
44.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ararat II win
31.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Noah IINoah II

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-710W00D13L30W10W23L22D07L21W00DH·VAN05/05A·BAN11/05A·AND15/05H·SHI21/05A·MIK25/05H·MIK04/08A·BAN10/08H·BEN14/08A·SAR18/08H·AND01/09
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.971.471.871.132.07
vs Stronger (9)0.332.110.502.500.201.80
vs Similar (12)1.831.502.170.501.502.50
vs Weaker (9)1.562.441.403.001.751.75
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ararat IIArarat II

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-624L21W14L04L03L16L04L04L13L12LA·ARA26/04A·SHI30/04H·HAY05/05A·BKM11/05A·ARA15/05H·AND21/05A·SYU25/05H·AND04/08A·ARA09/08H·SHI19/08
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
3.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.372.171.381.941.362.43
vs Stronger (2)1.001.500.002.002.001.00
vs Similar (13)1.233.001.173.501.292.57
vs Weaker (15)1.531.531.670.891.332.50
Clean sheet %13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Noah II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.7%
Under 1.5
13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66.7%
Under 2.5
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
45.0%
Under 3.5
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
67.8%
No
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.3%
2-2
6.9%
2-0
5.7%
3-1
5.6%
1-0
5.1%
3-2
4.3%
Noah II goals ↓
Ararat II goals →
01234
04.2%4.1%3.9%2.0%0.8%
15.1%10%7.3%3.8%1.5%
25.7%8.9%6.9%3.6%1.4%
33.6%5.6%4.3%2.2%0.9%
41.7%2.6%2.0%1.1%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Noah II goals (down), columns = Ararat II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Olympia Yerevan
1.30
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Sardarapat 2
0.74
Shirak II
0.60
Noah II is 0.23 points worse than Ararat II in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.27).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Banants II
1.53
Olympia Yerevan
1.50
Ararat II
1.43
Pyunik II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Mika
1.07
Sardarapat 2
0.85
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
Noah II is 0.13 goals worse than Ararat II in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 1.43).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hayq
0.80
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Olympia Yerevan
1.79
Banants II
1.80
Ararat II
1.93
Noah II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Sardarapat 2
3.15
Noah II and Ararat II are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.93).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Noah II or Draw
68.8%
Avg Implied -
45%
24%
31%
covers Noah II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Noah II or Ararat II
75.9%
Avg Implied -
45%
24%
31%
covers Noah II + Ararat II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ararat II
55.3%
Avg Implied -
45%
24%
31%
covers Draw + Ararat II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Noah II over/under 0.5
Over
84.8%
Under
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 1.5
Over
56.2%
Under
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 2.5
Over
29.2%
Under
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 3.5
Over
12.2%
Under
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 0.5
Over
78.9%
Under
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 1.5
Over
46.0%
Under
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 2.5
Over
20.5%
Under
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 3.5
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Noah II, so a minus line means Noah II give that many goals of a start and Ararat II receive them. At -1, Noah II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Noah II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Noah II)
Noah II -2
11.5%
Draw -2
13.8%
Ararat II +2
74.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Noah II)
Noah II -1
25.2%
Draw -1
19.5%
Ararat II +1
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Noah II)
Noah II +1
68.8%
Draw +1
15.9%
Ararat II -1
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Noah II)
Noah II +2
84.8%
Draw +2
9.4%
Ararat II -2
5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Noah IINoah II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D01L20W00D02L11D03L00D00DH·VAN05/05A·BAN11/05A·AND15/05H·SHI21/05A·MIK25/05H·MIK04/08A·BAN10/08H·BEN14/08A·SAR18/08H·AND01/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.471.000.470.870.471.13
vs Stronger (9)0.111.220.001.500.201.00
vs Similar (12)0.670.830.830.170.501.50
vs Weaker (9)0.561.000.401.200.750.75
Clean sheet %43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ararat IIArarat II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L20W14L02L02L13L00D03L00D12LA·ARA26/04A·SHI30/04H·HAY05/05A·BKM11/05A·ARA15/05H·AND21/05A·SYU25/05H·AND04/08A·ARA09/08H·SHI19/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.170.691.250.861.07
vs Stronger (2)0.501.500.002.001.001.00
vs Similar (13)0.541.540.332.170.711.00
vs Weaker (15)1.000.801.000.561.001.17
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Noah II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Noah II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Noah IINoah II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W00D12L10W10W21W11D04L21W00DH·VAN05/05A·BAN11/05A·AND15/05H·SHI21/05A·MIK25/05H·MIK04/08A·BAN10/08H·BEN14/08A·SAR18/08H·AND01/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.971.001.000.670.93
vs Stronger (9)0.220.890.501.000.000.80
vs Similar (12)1.170.671.330.331.001.00
vs Weaker (9)1.001.441.001.801.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ararat IIArarat II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L01L00D02L01L03L04L01L13L00DA·ARA26/04A·SHI30/04H·HAY05/05A·BKM11/05A·ARA15/05H·AND21/05A·SYU25/05H·AND04/08A·ARA09/08H·SHI19/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.601.000.690.690.501.36
vs Stronger (2)0.500.000.000.001.000.00
vs Similar (13)0.691.460.831.330.571.57
vs Weaker (15)0.530.730.670.330.331.33
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Noah II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Noah II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.597.6%-------
Under 6.593.9%-------
Away under 3.5 goals92.7%-------
Home under 3.5 goals87.8%-------
Over 1.586.7%-------
Under 5.586.6%-------
Home over 0.5 goals84.8%-------
Home +2 handicap84.8%-------
Away under 2.5 goals79.5%-------
Away over 0.5 goals78.9%-------
Home or Away75.9%-------
Away +2 handicap74.8%-------
Under 4.573.7%-------
Home under 2.5 goals70.8%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (29)
€1m
HAY (13)
€1m
BI (16)
€0m
OY (15)
€0m
BI (16)
€0m
MIK (21)
€0m
AI (11)
€0m
PI (13)
€0m
SI (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
LA (8)
€0m
NI (4)
€0m
S2 (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (10)
€1m
HAY (8)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
SI (1)
€0m
MIK (4)
€0m
OY (2)
€0m
PI (1)
€0m
NI (1)
€0m
BI (2)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
S2 (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (8)
€0m
BI (6)
€0m
MIK (10)
€0m
AI (5)
€0m
OY (4)
€0m
SI (4)
€0m
BI (5)
€0m
PI (4)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
HAY (1)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
S2 (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (11)
€0m
OY (9)
€0m
HAY (4)
€0m
BI (8)
€0m
AI (6)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
PI (8)
€0m
MIK (7)
€0m
SI (3)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
NI (3)
€0m
LA (3)
€0m
S2 (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
4
NI wins
2
Draws
0
AI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Noah II vs Ararat II · H/A from NI
DateH/AGameScore
15/03/26AArarat II Vs NI0-1
29/08/25HNI Vs Ararat II5-3
13/05/25AArarat II Vs NI0-1
03/11/24HNI Vs Ararat II2-1
15/04/24HNI Vs Ararat II0-0
22/09/23AArarat II Vs NI1-1

Noah IINoah II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/09/26HNI Vs Andranik0-0
18/08/26ASardarapat 2 Vs NI1-2
14/08/26HNI Vs Bentonit Ijevan0-7
10/08/26ABanants II Vs NI2-2
04/08/26HNI Vs Mika2-3
25/05/26AMika Vs NI0-1
21/05/26HNI Vs Shirak II3-0
15/05/26AAndranik Vs NI3-1
11/05/26ABanants II Vs NI0-0
05/05/26HNI Vs Van II1-0

Ararat IIArarat II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/08/26HAI Vs Shirak II1-2
09/08/26AAraks Ararat Vs AI3-1
04/08/26HAI Vs Andranik0-4
25/05/26ASyunik Vs AI4-0
21/05/26HAI Vs Andranik1-6
15/05/26AArarat-Armenia II Vs AI3-0
11/05/26ABKMA II Vs AI4-0
05/05/26HAI Vs Hayq1-4
30/04/26AShirak II Vs AI1-2
26/04/26AAraks Ararat Vs AI4-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Noah II
Noah II
Armenia: First League
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLWD1.34
HomeWWLLD1.38
AwayDLWDW1.29
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%35%38%
AVG goals3.183.123.25
Over 1.5 %74%69%79%
Over 2.5 %54%46%62%
Over 3.5 %40%38%42%
Scored1.441.541.33
Conceded1.741.581.92
BTTS50%46%54%
Clean Sheet28%35%21%
Corners---
Cards---
Ararat II
Ararat II
Armenia: First League
Recent: 1 Wins / 0 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL1.16
HomeWLLLL1.24
AwayWLLLL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%40%32%
AVG goals3.523.363.68
Over 1.5 %88%84%92%
Over 2.5 %70%60%80%
Over 3.5 %48%48%48%
Scored1.541.481.60
Conceded1.981.882.08
BTTS60%56%64%
Clean Sheet12%16%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Olympia YerevanOlympia Yerevan513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
2BKMA IIBKMA II512
80%
2.4
134+9
3.4
100%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.60.8
-
3Pyunik IIPyunik II511
60%
2.2
117+4
3.6
60%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.4
-
4AndranikAndranik47
50%
1.8
94+5
3.2
75%
75%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1002.21.0
-
5MikaMika57
40%
1.4
1011-1
4.2
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.2
-
6Lernayin ArtsakhLernayin Artsakh46
50%
1.5
77+0
3.5
75%
75%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
7Bentonit IjevanBentonit Ijevan45
25%
1.2
138+5
5.2
100%
75%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.22.0
-
8Banants IIBanants II55
20%
1.0
713-6
4.0
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.6
-
9Noah IINoah II55
20%
1.0
613-7
3.8
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.6
-
10Araks AraratAraks Ararat34
33%
1.3
54+1
3.0
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.3
-
11Shirak IIShirak II44
25%
1.0
37-4
2.5
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
12Sardarapat 2Sardarapat 243
25%
0.8
26-4
2.0
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.5
-
13Ararat-Armenia IIArarat-Armenia II41
0%
0.2
15-4
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.21.2
-
14HayqHayq00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.00.0
-
15Ararat IIArarat II30
0%
0.0
29-7
3.7
100%
100%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.73.0
-
Armenia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →

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